Nvidia’s multiple of about 11 times next-year earnings, below Broadcom’s 19 times in our earlier piece, rests on analysts’ consensus of $15.75 a share for the fiscal year ending January 2028. That is $3.94 a quarter on average, by our arithmetic, 77% above the $2.22 of non-GAAP earnings per share Nvidia reported for its latest quarter.
The first test comes on 17 November. Nvidia says it will host a conference call that day at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET) on results for the third quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended 25 October, with written CFO commentary posted when the results are announced at about 1:20 p.m. PT.
Business Pill · Gross Margin Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on gross margin, the share of each sales dollar left after the cost of making the product. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nvidia.
The key insight: As we read the numbers, Nvidia’s 11 times is a bet on a path, not a level: the $15.75 consensus averages $3.94 a quarter, 77% above the $2.22 non-GAAP Q2, by our arithmetic, and 17 November checks the first step at $2.49.
Nasdaq’s forecast page lists quarterly consensus for Nvidia of $2.49 for the quarter ended October 2026, from 13 estimates, then $2.75, $3.18, $3.64 and $4.09 for the four quarters after it. The figures we read carry no GAAP or non-GAAP label.
The reported quarters fit the annual figure. Nvidia’s non-GAAP earnings of $1.87 and $2.22 for the first two quarters, plus the $2.49 and $2.75 consensus for the last two, come to $9.33, against the $9.30 annual consensus, by our arithmetic. On a GAAP basis Q2 was $2.46, so $3.94 is 60% above it.
Nvidia’s non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the first two quarters of fiscal 2027, then Nasdaq’s analyst consensus for the next five quarters, read on 11 November 2026; the consensus carries no GAAP or non-GAAP label. $3.94 is $15.75 divided by four, our arithmetic.
What Nvidia Guided for Q3
In its CFO commentary for the second quarter, filed on 26 August, Nvidia said: “Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook.” That range runs from $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion, by our arithmetic.
It also said “GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points”, against 75.0% in Q2. The $2.49 consensus is 12.2% above Q2’s $2.22, the same step as the revenue guide’s midpoint over Q2’s $96.2 billion, by our arithmetic. Our Q3 preview sets out the revenue lines.
Why the Multiple Hangs on It
A forward multiple is price over expected earnings. At $172.68 at 10:19 a.m. ET on 11 November, Nvidia trades at 11.0 times the $15.75, by our arithmetic, against 10.7 times on the 10 November close in our first piece. At Broadcom’s 19.0 times, the same $15.75 would value Nvidia at about $7.2 trillion.
At an unchanged price, a lower consensus means a higher multiple and a higher consensus a lower one. The quarterly path in the consensus climbs from $2.49 to $4.09 in four steps.
The Structural Read
As we read the consensus, it moves in step with the company’s own guide: $2.49 is 12.2% above Q2, the same step as the $108.0 billion revenue midpoint over Q2’s $96.2 billion, by our arithmetic.
As we read the reported quarters, they fit the annual figure: $1.87 and $2.22 reported plus $2.49 and $2.75 of consensus come to $9.33, against $9.30 for the year, by our arithmetic.
NVIDIA CFO commentary, 26 August 2026
“GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points”
Three Implications
FOR THE 17 NOVEMBER PRINT Revenue guide $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion; consensus earnings per share $2.49, from 13 estimates.
FOR THE MULTIPLE At $172.68, 11.0 times the $15.75 next-year consensus, by our arithmetic.
FOR THE PATH Consensus climbs from $2.49 to $4.09 a quarter over five quarters on Nasdaq’s page.
The framework records: “The $1T capex cycle is being underwritten by a $1T concentrated demand commitment from two counterparties whose combined free cash flow is deeply negative”.
As we read it, the consensus path from $2.49 to $4.09 a quarter is a forecast of that spending reaching Nvidia’s income statement; each quarterly report shows how much of it has. The framework predates the current share moves and does not discuss them.
The Nasdaq data we read does not label its consensus GAAP or non-GAAP, so the comparison with $2.22 and $2.46 is shown both ways. Consensus changes as analysts revise it, and the quarterly and annual figures come from different sets of estimates. The outlook in Nvidia’s 26 August commentary covers the third quarter.
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Nvidia’s 11 times next-year earnings rests on $15.75 of consensus, $3.94 a quarter, against $2.22 of non-GAAP earnings in Q2, by our arithmetic. The 17 November results test the first step: $2.49 of consensus for a quarter Nvidia guided to $108.0 billion of revenue, plus or minus 2%.
A note on sourcing. The call date and times are from NVIDIA’s conference-call notice of 28 October 2026, read in full. Reported earnings per share and the third-quarter outlook are from NVIDIA’s CFO commentary for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, filed with an 8-K on 26 August 2026. Consensus forecasts and the 10:19 a.m. ET price are from Nasdaq.com, read at 15:19 UTC on 11 November.
Every average, ratio and sum is our arithmetic. This piece covers markets only and is not investment advice. Nvidia was not contacted.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
