Goldman Sachs analysts modelAnthropic’s revenue at roughly $685 billion by 2030, Bloomberg reported on 10 November, citing a person familiar with the estimates, according to TIKR’s account. Goldman is one of the two banks leading Anthropic’s IPO, which TIKR says prices on 18 November.
Anthropic’s amended S-1 puts its run-rate revenue at approximately $81 billion as of 31 October 2026. The $685 billion forecast is 8.5 times that, and getting there in four years means compounding at about 71% a year, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · IPO Float
A short explainer on IPO float, the share of a company sold in its listing. It teaches the general idea and does not discuss Anthropic’s offering or Goldman’s forecast.
The key insight: As we read it, the forecast is a statement about the next four years, not about today: Goldman analysts’ roughly $685 billion for 2030, as Bloomberg reported it via TIKR, is 8.5 times the approximately $81 billion run-rate in the S-1/A, about 71% a year, by our arithmetic.
As Bloomberg described the model, according to TIKR, “revenue climbs from about $52 billion this year to $136 billion in 2027 and $442 billion in 2029 before reaching $685 billion”. TIKR adds that this is “nearly 150 times the $4.59 billion Anthropic booked last year”.
The same model, TIKR writes, has “compute spending climbing more than tenfold to nearly $400 billion by 2030”, with free cash flow turning positive only that year, at $33.6 billion. Nearly $400 billion of compute is about 58% of the $685 billion revenue figure, by our arithmetic.
Goldman Sachs analysts’ Anthropic revenuemodel as Bloomberg described it, via TIKR; no 2028 figure was given. The roughly 71% a year from the S-1/A run-rate is our arithmetic.
The Gap to the $81 Billion Run-Rate
The S-1/A filed on 10 November says Anthropic’s “Run-Rate Revenue was approximately $81 billion as of October 31, 2026, up $10 billion from September 30, 2026”.
From $81 billion to $685 billion is a factor of 8.46, and compounding at about 71% a year for four years closes it, by our arithmetic. The run-rate is an annualised October figure and the forecast a calendar-year one, so the rate is approximate.
Measured on Goldman’s own path, the model asks for more. From about $52 billion in 2026 to $685 billion in 2030 is about 91% a year, by our arithmetic. Growth slows within the model: 2027 is about 2.6 times 2026, 2027 to 2029 runs at about 80% a year, and 2030 is 55% above 2029.
Where Broadcom’s $161 Billion Sits
The filing says Anthropic’s five-year master equipment leases are with Broadcom “and certain financing entities following the assignments described below”, and that “our rent payments over the life of these leases are equal to an aggregate of approximately $161.2 billion excluding interest”. That is the $161 billion in TIKR’s headline.
Spread evenly over five years, $161.2 billion is about $32.2 billion a year, 4.7% of Goldman’s 2030 revenue figure, by our arithmetic. The same filing puts total committed spend at approximately $900.9 billion, including approximately $451.6 billion expected to be incurred before 31 December 2030.
TIKR writes that Broadcom backstops “up to about $29 billion of leases tied to Anthropic and up to about $43 billion more on a $63 billion rack financing”, the exposure set out in our Broadcom backstop piece.
The Structural Read
As we read the reports, the number comes from one of the two banks leading the IPO, which TIKR notes, and the same model has free cash flow turning positive only in 2030, so it describes growth funded from cash and financing until then.
As we read the filing, the approximately $161.2 billion of Broadcom-lease rent is fixed over five years, while revenue in the model compounds; on an even spread the rent is 4.7% of the 2030 figure, by our arithmetic, and a larger share in the years before.
Anthropic S-1/A, 10 November 2026
“Run-Rate Revenue was approximately $81 billion as of October 31, 2026, up $10 billion from September 30, 2026”
Three Implications
FOR THE IPO TIKR says the IPO prices on 18 November; the model gives investors a 2030 revenue figure 8.5 times the filed run-rate, by our arithmetic.
FOR BROADCOM About $32.2 billion a year of lease rent on an even spread, by our arithmetic, plus backstops TIKR puts at up to about $29 billion and up to about $43 billion.
FOR THE PATH From about $52 billion in 2026 to $685 billion in 2030 is about 91% a year, by our arithmetic, faster than the 71% from the run-rate.
The framework records: “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle. It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing”.
As we read it, a model that has revenue reach $685 billion while compute climbs to nearly $400 billion by 2030 is that financing problem written as a forecast. The framework predates the Goldman model and does not discuss it.
Figures from Anthropic’s S-1/A of 10 November 2026 against Goldman analysts’ 2030 figures as Bloomberg reported them, via TIKR. The even five-year spread of the lease rent and its share of $685 billion are our arithmetic.
What Is Not Established
The figures come from Bloomberg’s account of the model, citing a person familiar, as relayed by TIKR; we did not read Goldman’s note or the Bloomberg article body. TIKR’s account gives no 2028 figure. The S-1/A states the run-rate and the lease rent; the forecast is Goldman’s, not Anthropic’s. The IPO timeline and offering terms are in our Anthropic IPO map and our commitments piece.
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Goldman analysts model Anthropic’s revenue at roughly $685 billion by 2030, according to Bloomberg via TIKR. That is 8.5 times the approximately $81 billion run-rate in the S-1/A, about 71% a year for four years, by our arithmetic, and the filing’s approximately $161.2 billion of Broadcom-lease rent would be 4.7% of it on an even five-year spread.
A note on sourcing. The forecast is Goldman Sachs analysts’ model as Bloomberg News reported it on 10 November 2026, citing a person familiar with the estimates; the Bloomberg article body was not readable to us, and we relied on TIKR’s account of it, published at 13:40 UTC on 11 November and read in full. We did not read Goldman’s note. The run-rate, the lease rent and the commitments are from Anthropic’s S-1/A filed with the SEC on 10 November 2026. The growth rates, multiples and shares are our arithmetic. Anthropic, Goldman Sachs and Broadcom were not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
