Nvidia reports its third quarter of fiscal 2027 on Tuesday, 17 November, and its own outlook sets the bar: “Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%”. Against the $57.0 billion it reported for the same quarter a year earlier, the midpoint is 89.5% higher by our arithmetic.
It is the first quarterly report since the board accepted the chief executive’s resignation on 11 November and named chief financial officer Colette Kress interim chief executive. Nvidia says written commentary from Kress is posted at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific, about 21:20 UTC, ahead of a 2 p.m. Pacific call.
Business Pill · Concentration explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on customer concentration. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nvidia or this report.
The key insight: As we read the filings, the bar for 17 November is Nvidia’s own: a $108.0 billion midpoint that is 12.2% above the second quarter by our arithmetic, set before the leadership change and assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China.
The outlook in Nvidia’s 26 August CFO commentary puts revenue at $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, a range of $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion by our arithmetic. It adds: “We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook”.
Gross margins are guided at “74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points”, for both GAAP and non-GAAP. The second quarter’s GAAP gross margin was 75.0%, so the guide midpoint is 1.0 point lower by our arithmetic. GAAP operating expenses are guided at about $9.2 billion, against $8,408 million in the second quarter, 9.4% higher.
Nvidia quarterly revenue from its filings and its own outlook midpoint for the quarter it reports on 17 November; growth figures are our arithmetic.
Where the Guide Sits Against the Last Two Quarters
Nvidia reported second-quarter revenue of $96,221 million, “up 106% from a year ago and up 18% sequentially”, after $81,615 million in the first quarter. The $108.0 billion midpoint is 12.2% above the second quarter by our arithmetic, a smaller step than the 18% before it.
Data Center revenue was $89,023 million in the second quarter. That is 92.5% of total revenue by our arithmetic, against 87.9% in the same quarter a year earlier, when Data Center brought in $41,096 million of $46,743 million.
What the Filings Say to Check
Supply commitments. The 10-Q says Nvidia increased supply commitments from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion as of 26 July 2026, 2.3x by our arithmetic, with $92 billion due in the rest of fiscal 2027. It says “These supply commitments are for our data center infrastructure systems, primarily memory and manufacturing facilities”. Our explainer on those commitments sets out which can be cancelled or rescheduled, and our piece on the handshake claim covers the debate over unwritten supply deals.
Customers. The 10-Q says “Five direct customers accounted for 22 %, 14 %, 13 %, 11 %, and 10 % of our accounts receivable balance as of July 26, 2026”, 70% together by our arithmetic. It says one direct customer represented 16% of second-quarter revenue.
China. The 10-Q says the U.S. government granted licenses to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers, “but such sales were restricted by the PRC government”, and that shipments under the program account for “less than 1% of Data Center revenue in our most recent quarter”. Revenue from customers headquartered in China, including Hong Kong, was $7,880 million in the second quarter, 8.2% of the total by our arithmetic; the filing bases that split on customer headquarters, not on where products end up.
As we read the 10-Q, the supply side is the larger number: Nvidia says supply commitments rose from $119 billion to $279 billion in one quarter, against second-quarter revenue of $96,221 million.
As we read the customer note, the demand side is concentrated: the 10-Q says five direct customers accounted for 70% of receivables by our arithmetic, and one direct customer represented 16% of second-quarter revenue.
NVIDIA CFO Commentary, second quarter fiscal 2027, 26 August 2026
“We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook.”
Three Implications
FOR INVESTORS Nvidia says revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, with gross margins of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
FOR NVIDIA’S SUPPLIERS The 10-Q says the supply commitments are primarily for memory and manufacturing facilities, with $92 billion due in the rest of fiscal 2027.
FOR THE BOARD The 12 November 8-K says Colette Kress continues as chief financial officer while serving as interim chief executive during the board’s search.
The framework says: “The $1T capex cycle is being underwritten by a $1T concentrated demand commitment from two counterparties whose combined free cash flow is deeply negative.”
As we read it, Nvidia’s filing shows concentration at the supplier end too, with five direct customers holding 70% of receivables by our arithmetic; the framework does not discuss Nvidia’s guidance.
What Is Not Established
This piece uses Nvidia’s own guidance only. It does not cite an analyst consensus, because we did not find one published by a trusted outlet that we could read in full. Nvidia has not updated its outlook since 26 August in the filings we read, and the 12 November 8-K does not mention it.
The figures come from Nvidia’s filings and press release. Nvidia was not contacted for this piece.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
AI Lost Its Central Banker, the Lab Oligopoly, and the Future of Open Source
This week’s issue: the Nvidia leadership change, read as the AI build-out losing its central banker: who now finances the GPU landlords, backstops the data centres and sponsors open models, and why two labs are becoming the bank.
Nvidia’s own outlook for the quarter it reports on 17 November is $108.0 billion of revenue, plus or minus 2%, which is 89.5% above the same quarter last year and 12.2% above the second quarter by our arithmetic, with no Data Center compute revenue from China assumed.
A note on sourcing. The guidance and results come from NVIDIA’s CFO commentary on second-quarter fiscal 2027 (filed 26 August 2026), its 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026, its 28 October 2026 call notice and its 12 November 2026 8-K, read on SEC EDGAR and nvidianews.nvidia.com on 14 November. Growth rates, ranges and shares are our arithmetic. NVIDIA was not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
