Anthropic’s IPO site expects its share price to be set on 18 November and trading to begin on 19 November, subject to regulatory clearance, the day after Nvidia reports third-quarter results on 17 November. At the $74.00 midpoint of the $70.00 to $78.00 range, the 825 million shares on offer come to $61.05 billion, by our arithmetic. Nvidia’s own outlook for the quarter is $108.0 billion of revenue, plus or minus 2%.
This is the AI week of 16 to 23 November, day by day, built from official pages, filings and our own earlier reporting, each linked. Times are Eastern with UTC by our conversion. Every date is the one its named source gives; nothing here is our forecast, and we use no analyst estimates.
Business Pill · IPO Float
A short Business Engineer explainer on IPO float, the share of a company sold in its listing. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Anthropic’s dates or this week’s events.
The key insight: As we read it, the week puts two tests side by side: Nvidia reports against its own $108.0 billion guide on 17 November, and Anthropic’s IPO site expects pricing the next day for a deal worth $61.05 billion at the $74.00 midpoint, by our arithmetic.
Monday 16 November: The Fed on AI, and the 13F Deadline
The Fed Board’s calendar lists two AI talks on Monday. Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on “Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability” at 5:00 a.m. Eastern, 10:00 UTC, at an AI-in-finance conference in Milan. At 12:00 p.m. Eastern, 17:00 UTC, Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the opening remarks at the Fed’s Productivity and Jobs Task Force Conference in San Francisco.
The San Francisco Fed’s agenda lists Warsh as moderator of 3 of the 4 sessions, ending with a fireside chat with Marc Andreessen and Gina Raimondo. The programme runs from 9:00 a.m. to 12:15 p.m. Pacific and is livestreamed. Our curtain-raiser has the full panel list.
Monday is also the 13F deadline. Under SEC Rule 13f-1, managers file “within 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter”; for the quarter ended 30 September, the 45th day is a Saturday, so the deadline moves to Monday 16 November, as our Situational Awareness piece set out. That fund’s 30 June filing listed 23 stock positions worth $20.17 billion. Altimeter and Atreides, whose letter to Nvidia’s board we covered, listed 10.66 million Nvidia shares worth $2.13 billion combined at 30 June.
Scheduled and expected AI dates, 16-23 November 2026, in UTC: the Fed Board calendar and San Francisco Fed agenda (16 Nov), the SEC Rule 13f-1 deadline, Nvidia’s call notice (17 Nov), Anthropic’s IPO site (pricing 18 Nov, first trade 19 Nov, both expected and subject to regulatory clearance), APEC in Shenzhen (18-19 Nov, per Reuters and CNBC), settlement indicated in the offering materials (20 Nov) and Cboe Rule 4.3 (23 Nov). The $61.05 billion and the UTC conversions are our arithmetic.
Tuesday 17 November: Nvidia Reports
Nvidia’s call notice says it “will host a conference call on Tuesday, November 17, at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET)”, 22:00 UTC, with results announced “at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT”, 21:20 UTC. Written commentary from Colette Kress, the company’s chief financial officer, is to be posted on its investor site immediately after the results are announced, the notice says. It is the first report since the 11 November leadership change set out in our five-dates piece.
Nvidia’s own guide for the quarter is in its 26 August CFO commentary, which says: “Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.” It adds: “We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook.” The 2% band runs from $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion, by our arithmetic, and the $108.0 billion midpoint is 12.2% above second-quarter revenue of $96,221 million. Gross margin is guided at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Two other deadlines fall that day. A letter from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Christopher Coons asks three administration offices to “confirm in writing by November 17 that preservation directives have been issued across your respective offices”. In Australia, broker Stake’s window for Anthropic IPO requests closes at “5pm Tue 17 November 2026” Australian Eastern Daylight Time, 06:00 UTC by our conversion.
Anthropic’s IPO site says: “The final IPO price is expected to be determined on November 18th(EST), based on regulatory clearance, investor demand and market conditions.” The filed range is $70.00 to $78.00 for 825,000,000 Class A shares, of which Anthropic is “selling 801,351,354 shares”.
Our own number: the base deal is $57.75 billion at $70, $61.05 billion at $74 and $64.35 billion at $78, by our arithmetic, as our explainer on how the IPO works sets out. The filing puts net proceeds from the offering and its private placement at “approximately $84.6 billion (or approximately $93.7 billion if the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares of our Class A common stock is exercised in full)” at $74.
The Financial Times has reported that bankers expect to raise the share price above the range; that is reported, not filed. At our EDGAR check at 03:15 UTC on 14 November, the latest amendment was still the 10 November S-1/A.
The APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen is set for 18 and 19 November, Reuters reported, and CNBC reported that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet alongside it. Senior US officials told reporters they “do not expect the situation with Nvidia to have any bearing on the trip”, CNBC reported. Four key terms of the US-China truce end on 9 or 10 January 2027, 52 days after the summit’s last day, by our arithmetic in our truce piece.
Also on Wednesday: Nvidia holds a company meeting at 9 a.m. Pacific, 17:00 UTC, according to a staff email obtained by CNBC, and the Fed Board’s calendar lists the minutes of the 27-28 October policy meeting at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, 19:00 UTC.
Thursday 19 November: Anthropic’s First Trade
The IPO site says brokerage accounts “will confirm your allocation on the first day of trading, which is expected to be November 19th(EST)”. The shares are to list on Nasdaq as ANT; the 9:30 a.m. open is 14:30 UTC. As our day-by-day report showed, the filing moves the service-vesting date for “approximately 67 million RSUs” to 19 November and lets non-founder directors, officers and current or former employees transfer up to 10% of their lock-up securities from the first trading day.
The $26.0 billion private placement “is contingent upon, and is scheduled to close immediately subsequent to, the completion of this offering”, per the filing. Anthropic’s offering materials indicate settlement on Friday 20 November. On Thursday afternoon the Fed Board’s calendar also lists Governor Barr in a discussion on artificial intelligence at the FinRegLab 2026 AI Symposium in Washington, at 2:15 p.m. Eastern, 19:15 UTC.
Monday 23 November: When Options Can List
Cboe’s Rule 4.3 lets options on a new issue with a market capitalization of at least $3 billion, based on its IPO offering price, “be listed and traded starting on or after the second business day following the initial public offering day”. The 825,000,000 shares at the $70.00 bottom of the range come to $57.75 billion, above that line, by our arithmetic. If trading starts on 19 November, the second business day after is Monday 23 November, by our count. The rule permits listing from that day; it does not require it.
Dates after the week: the House Foreign Affairs letters of 12 November (interviews requested for 1 and 2 December, a hearing for 3 December), the Senate Banking Committee’s requests for 3 and 10 December, Tesla’s Cybercab order page (estimated delivery December 2026, Austin), the first day-counted lock-up release in Anthropic’s S-1/A (15 December on an assumed 18 November prospectus date, our arithmetic) and the US-China suspensions ending 9 or 10 January 2027. Testimony dates are requests.
After the Week: December in Washington
Letters dated 12 November from the chairs of three House committees request a closed-door, transcribed interview with Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s former chief executive, on 1 December, and with Nvidia general counsel Tim Teter on 2 December, as our testimony piece reports. A third letter, signed by Chairman Brian Mast, requests Under Secretary of Commerce Jeffrey Kessler at a hearing at 10 a.m. on 3 December. The two interview letters asked for written confirmation by 8 p.m. Eastern on 13 November.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott has requested that Huang appear on 3 December and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on 10 December, the committee’s Republican account said. All of these are requests, not findings. Tesla’s Cybercab order page lists estimated delivery in December 2026 in Austin, Texas, at $29,990 plus a $299-a-month autonomy subscription, per our Cybercab piece. And if Anthropic’s prospectus is dated 18 November, its first day-counted lock-up release, at 27 days, falls on 15 December, by our arithmetic.
The Structural Read
As we read the order of events, Anthropic’s book closes after Nvidia’s numbers are public: Nvidia’s notice puts its results at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific on 17 November, 21:20 UTC by our conversion, and the IPO site expects pricing on 18 November (EST).
As we read the Washington dates, the testimony requests sit outside this week: the House letters ask for interviews on 1 and 2 December and a hearing on 3 December, and the Senate Banking requests name 3 and 10 December.
Anthropic IPO site (ipo.anthropic.com)
“Subject to regulatory clearance, the final IPO share price is expected to be set on November 18th(EST), and shares are expected to begin publicly trading on November 19th(EST).”
Three Implications
FOR IPO BUYERS The IPO site says allocations are confirmed on the first day of trading, which it expects on 19 November; Cboe’s Rule 4.3 would permit listed options from Monday 23 November if trading starts that day, by our count.
FOR NVIDIA HOLDERS Results come at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific on 17 November, per Nvidia’s notice, against a guide of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, that assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, per its 26 August CFO commentary.
FOR FUND WATCHERS Filings for the quarter ended 30 September are due by Monday 16 November under Rule 13f-1, by our count; our June 13F piece has the baseline for Situational Awareness.
The framework says of the stack: “Models, compute, silicon, foundries — none of them can be priced as standalone technology assets anymore.”
As we read it, this week puts public-market prices on two of those layers on consecutive days, Nvidia’s silicon results on 17 November and Anthropic’s expected model-company pricing on 18 November, while the APEC summit and the December testimony requests sit at the governance layer. The framework predates this week and does not discuss it.
What Is Not Established
Anthropic’s final price, the date on its prospectus and the timing of regulatory clearance are not established; the IPO site makes both dates “Subject to regulatory clearance”. Nvidia’s results, what Trump and Xi discuss in Shenzhen, what the September 13F filings show and whether the December sessions take place are also not established, as is how the people the House letters addressed replied to the 13 November confirmation request.
We use no analyst forecasts for Nvidia’s quarter, only its own guide. We did not contact Anthropic, Nvidia or the committees for this piece.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
The week runs from the Fed’s AI conference and the 13F deadline on Monday to Nvidia’s results on Tuesday, measured against its own $108.0 billion guide, and to Anthropic’s expected pricing on Wednesday and first trade on Thursday, a $61.05 billion base deal at the midpoint, by our arithmetic. The date after that is Monday 23 November, the first day Cboe’s rule would allow listed options on Anthropic if trading starts on schedule.
A note on sourcing. We read NVIDIA’s third-quarter call notice, Anthropic’s IPO site, the San Francisco Fed’s conference agenda, the Fed Board’s calendar for 16 to 20 November and Anthropic’s EDGAR filing index on 14 November. Filing figures, rule text, outlet reports and congressional letters are as cited in our earlier pieces, each linked, which name their primaries. Deal sizes at each price, the guide band, day counts and UTC conversions are our arithmetic. Under our editorial policy, Nvidia lines cover governance, markets and policy only. We did not contact Anthropic, Nvidia or the committees.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
