NASA Slide Lists 21 SpaceX Steps Before a 2028 Moon Landing

A NASA slide titled “SpaceX Development Milestones” lists, by our count, 21 steps SpaceX has to work through on its Starship lunar lander. They start with steps such as a “First Cape Flight” in the last quarter of 2026 and end with an “Artemis IV Depot Launch” and “Propellant Aggregation” in a column marked 2028. The slide carries NASA and Artemis logos. On 23 October 2026, NASA briefed reporters on its Artemis plans, CNN reported, and NASA chief Jared Isaacman said: “We will not delude ourselves into believing that more time, more money, and flying less will somehow make our work safer or more achievable.”

CNN reported that SpaceX’s first demonstration of transferring propellant between two Starship vehicles is expected in early 2027. NASA officials also confirmed Elon Musk’s estimate that a Moon landing would require six to eight launches, CNN reported, while noting that a final figure likely cannot be known until after propellant transfer testing is done.

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What the Slide Lists

The slide splits SpaceX’s work into three rows. We read the step names and their quarter columns from the image.

• Artemis III Starship Lander Test Article Build (7 steps). Passive Docking Mechanical Fit Check, Emulator Delivery, Docking System & Aerocover Integration, Comms Systems Complete, Ship, Booster Engine Install, Static Fire, Ship, Booster Cryoproof, and Barge to Cape. The slide places the Artemis III mission in the third quarter of 2027.
• Artemis IV Starship HLS Mission (9 steps). Cabin 1 Build Complete, Cabin 1 Operations Testing, Landing Leg Demo, Cabin 1 Airlock Demo, Uncrewed Demo Tanker Flights, Uncrewed Demo Lander Launch, Uncrewed Lunar Landing Mission, Artemis IV Depot Launch and Propellant Aggregation. The slide shows the uncrewed lunar landing in the last quarter of 2027 and the Artemis IV mission in the 2028 column.
• Launch Infrastructure & Flight Testing (5 steps). First V3 Booster Catch, First Ship Catch, 39A Pad Complete and First Cape Flight, all in the last quarter of 2026, then a Prop Transfer Demo in the first quarter of 2027, followed by an arrow labelled ongoing Starship flights.

Source: NASA slide “SpaceX Development Milestones”; step counts and column readings are ours.

How It Differs From NASA’s 5 October Chart

NASA’s Human Landing System program manager Steve Creech presented a chart with the same title at the International Astronautical Congress on 5 October 2026; the deck is posted on NASA’s technical reports server. That chart ran to the last quarter of 2027 and ended with an “Uncrewed Demo Mission”. It listed a “2nd Pad at Cape (LC37) Complete” in the first quarter of 2027 and a “First v3 Booster Reuse” in the last quarter of 2026.

The slide we saw adds an Artemis IV row that runs into 2028, with the depot launch, propellant aggregation and the Artemis IV mission, and it lists “39A Pad Complete” in the last quarter of 2026. The October deck says it is “TBD which lander will be used” for Artemis IV, which it dates to early 2028.

The Refueling Step

CNN reported that transferring super-chilled cryogenic propellants between two vehicles in Earth orbit has never been done. It said experts had previously estimated the number of refueling flights for a Moon landing at between 10 and 40, before Musk said six to eight and NASA officials confirmed his estimate.

NASA associate administrator Amit Kshatriya told CNN that “most of what they’re seeing now is issues impacting reuse,” referring to Raptor engine problems in test flights. He added: “What we want to make sure is we can get a Starship to orbit with the amount of dwell time that’s required to perform this docking test.” Jeremy Parsons, manager of NASA’s Artemis Program, called the estimated 14-day Artemis III test mission “likely the most complicated launch campaign ever undertaken,” according to CNN.

For Artemis III, SpaceX will fly a relatively bare-bones version of Starship, CNN reported, and NASA said it believes it can vet SpaceX’s life support systems outside that mission, citing the company’s experience flying crewed Dragon vehicles.

Starship in SpaceX’s Numbers

SpaceX’s results release reports Starship activity, including Flight 14, under its Space segment, as covered in our Q3 piece. In the third quarter, Space revenue was $1,767 million, up 84% sequentially and 6% year over year, against $7.56 billion for the Super Intelligence (SI) segment and $5,248 million for Connectivity, according to the release. By our arithmetic, Space was about 12% of the quarter’s $14.6 billion of revenue.

The same release calls Starship Flight 14 its first orbital Starship flight and its first revenue-generating Starship mission, delivering 26 Starlink V3 satellites.

Most of the spending sits elsewhere: the release put SI capex at $16.4 billion of $19.6 billion in total capex for the quarter, our Q3 piece reported.

Blue Origin’s Parallel Track

NASA has not yet determined which of the two landers will be used for Artemis IV, CNN reported. Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 2 has not yet flown a test flight, and Blue Origin must get its New Glenn rocket flying again after one exploded in May during routine ground tests and destroyed the company’s Florida launch site, according to CNN. NASA’s October deck places Blue Origin’s uncrewed demo mission in the first quarter of 2028.

Connecting the Coverage

Our Q3 piece reported SpaceX’s third-quarter 2026 revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% from a year earlier, according to its results release filed on 20 October 2026.

Our chip-debt piece covered Bloomberg’s 23 October report that SpaceX’s efforts to finalise a $40 billion off-balance-sheet debt structure for its AI build-out have been roiled by market turmoil.

Our lockup piece reported that up to 1.3 billion SpaceX shares became eligible for sale after the September-quarter results, under the lock-up terms in the prospectus. Our merger piece covered Bloomberg’s 22 October report of a push to announce a SpaceX-Tesla deal by the first half of 2027, according to people familiar with the matter. That is the same half-year in which the slide puts the refueling demo and the Artemis III lander build. Our Musk companies guide sets out how SpaceX now also holds xAI, Grok and X.

What’s new: a NASA slide that extends SpaceX’s lander steps to an Artemis IV row in 2028, and NASA officials confirming Musk’s six-to-eight launch estimate for a Moon landing.

The Structural Read

As we read it, the slide front-loads the work: by our reading of the image, 7 of the 21 steps sit in the last quarter of 2026 and 4 more in the first quarter of 2027.

As we read it, refueling links the later steps: the slide’s uncrewed demo tanker flights, depot launch and propellant aggregation all involve moving propellant, and CNN reported that transferring cryogenic propellants between two vehicles in Earth orbit has never been done.

As we read it, the Moon work sits beside a much larger AI budget: SpaceX’s third-quarter release put SI capex at $16.4 billion of $19.6 billion, while Space revenue was $1,767 million, as covered in our Q3 piece.

Three Implications

FOR SPACEX SHAREHOLDERS Bloomberg reported a push to announce a SpaceX-Tesla deal by the first half of 2027, per our merger piece; the slide places the refueling demo and the Artemis III lander build in the same half-year.

FOR NASA’S LANDER CHOICE NASA has not yet determined which of the two landers will be used for Artemis IV, CNN reported, and NASA’s October deck lists the choice as TBD.

FOR THE REFUELING COUNT NASA officials confirmed Musk’s estimate of six to eight launches but said a final figure likely cannot be known until after propellant transfer testing, according to CNN.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The AI Capex Map & The State of AI Hyperscalers.

The framework describes its subject as “How the money flows, where it cracks, what it buys, who can absorb it”.

As we read it, the slide is a list of what SpaceX’s non-AI side has to deliver on a schedule, while most of its capex goes to the SI segment, per its third-quarter release. The framework was published in May 2026 and does not discuss NASA’s lander program or SpaceX.

What Is Not Established

We could not confirm where the slide was first shown; it is not in the 10-slide 5 October deck NASA posted, which we read in full and whose SpaceX chart (slide 7) differs. We read the quarter for each step from the image, and some steps sit close to a column boundary. CNN wrote that the Artemis IV and V timeline “is widely expected to shift.”

NASA’s contract values for the landers are not in what we read beyond CNN’s description of “multibillion-dollar contracts.” We did not contact NASA or SpaceX.

The Bottom Line

A NASA slide lists 21 SpaceX steps, by our count, from steps in the last quarter of 2026 to a depot launch and propellant aggregation for an Artemis IV mission in 2028. On 23 October, NASA officials confirmed Elon Musk’s estimate of six to eight launches for a Moon landing, while noting a final figure likely cannot be known until after propellant transfer testing, per CNN; the first propellant transfer demonstration is expected in early 2027, CNN reported.