Elon Muskwrote on X on November 8: “Larry Page has made many accurate predictions and this is one of them”. The post quotes a clip from the Invest Like the Best podcast in which host Patrick O’Shaughnessy recounts a secondhand account that Page expects “five nines”, or 99.999%, of compute to end up in orbit.
In the 4 November episode, O’Shaughnessy said: “I heard this story recently that someone asked Larry Page how much of compute would be orbital”, according to a transcript published by BidClub. At five nines, one unit of compute in every 100,000 would stay on Earth, by our arithmetic. None of the sources we read quotes Page directly.
Business Pill · Grid Cost Allocation
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on grid cost allocation: who pays for new power lines. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss space data centers.
The key insight:Elon Musk wrote on X that Larry Page has made many accurate predictions and this is one of them, quoting a clip in which podcast host Patrick O’Shaughnessy recounts a secondhand account that Page expects five nines, or 99.999%, of compute to end up in orbit. On the same podcast, Martin Casado said the reason it makes the most sense is regulatory, citing 500 proposed pieces of US legislation to stop data center building. At five nines, one unit of compute in every 100,000 would stay on Earth, by our arithmetic.
The exchange came in O’Shaughnessy’s 4 November episode with Martin Casado, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz. O’Shaughnessy continued: “The reason was that it’s just physics. Eventually, it’s all going to be in space”, according to the BidClub transcript.
Casado replied: “The space thing actually pencils out, but the reason it makes the most sense is regulatory”. Asked whether that was because it skirts regulation, Casado said: “There are 500 proposed pieces of legislation to stop data center building in the United States alone, including in Texas”.
Casado added that if regulatory pressure continues and builders cannot break ground, “then either you go international or you go into space”. Casado said many top data center people describe it as very tough to break ground right now.
99.999%: the five nines that Larry Page reportedly gave, per Patrick O’Shaughnessy’s secondhand account on Invest Like the Best (4 Nov 2026, BidClub transcript). 1 in 100,000 left on Earth: our arithmetic. 4.9x: launch cost per kW-year vs the top of US data center power spend, our arithmetic on a Google paper (4 Nov 2026). 500: proposed pieces of US legislation to stop data center building, as Martin Casado put it; not verified by us.
What Was Posted on X
Larry Page has made many accurate predictions and this is one of them
Elon Musk wrote on 8 November that Larry Page has made many accurate predictions and this is one of them, quoting Hosun Chung’s post of a clip in which Patrick O’Shaughnessy recounts a secondhand account that Page expects five nines of compute to end up in orbit. Musk’s post gives no reasons and no timeframe; none of the sources we read quotes Page directly.
How the Claim Reached Musk
Hosun Chung posted the clip on November 7, writing that O’Shaughnessy “heard it secondhand”. Musk quoted that post at 16:37 UTC on November 8; X showed 875,725 views on Musk’s post at 17:58 UTC. Musk’s post gives no reasons and no timeframe.
What Our Earlier Coverage Measured
Google’s head of data center energy said data centers in space could cost up to 100 times as much as those on Earth, The Information reported on 1 November, as we covered in our piece on that estimate. TechCrunch reported that Google’s Project Suncatcher prototype satellite generates up to 1 kW of electricity.
By our arithmetic on a Google research paper’s estimates, launching a kilowatt of satellite power costs about $14,700 a year, 4.9 times the top of the US data center power-spend range the paper cites, as we reported on 4 November. FundaAI wrote that SpaceX has ordered 6,000 space-specific racks for 2027, which SpaceX has not confirmed, as we reported.
The Permitting Side
Casado’s 500 figure is Casado’s own count, given on the podcast; we have not verified it. Separately, Cleanview said nine US states have a governor or governor-elect who promised or imposed a pause on new data centers, holding 158.6 GW or 41% of the US pipeline, as we reported on 6 November.
The Structural Read
As we read the transcript, the five-nines figure is O’Shaughnessy’s retelling of a story O’Shaughnessy heard, so it is an account of a Page remark rather than a Page statement.
As we read Casado’s answer, the case Casado makes for orbit is about permits more than physics: if builders cannot break ground, Casado said, they go international or into space.
As we read our earlier coverage, the cost side runs the other way: a Google executive put space data centers at up to 100 times Earth’s cost, The Information reported.
Martin Casado on Invest Like the Best, 4 November
“The space thing actually pencils out, but the reason it makes the most sense is regulatory”
Three Implications
FOR THE CLAIM The figure reaches us through O’Shaughnessy’s secondhand account; none of the sources we read quotes Page directly, and the account gives no timeframe.
FOR THE COST SIDE By our arithmetic on a Google paper, launching a kilowatt of satellite power costs about 4.9 times the top of US data center power spend, as we reported on 4 November.
FOR THE PERMIT SIDE Cleanview said governors or governors-elect in nine states have promised or imposed data center pauses covering 41% of the US pipeline, as we reported on 6 November.
The essay argues that “a projected 19GW gap between new data center demand and available grid capacity threatens to deflate the AI bubble”.
As we read it, Casado’s argument for orbit starts from the same ground constraint, framed as permits rather than grid capacity. The essay does not discuss space data centers.
What Is Not Established
Page is not quoted directly in any source we read; the five-nines figure reaches us through O’Shaughnessy’s retelling of a story O’Shaughnessy heard. The account gives no timeframe. Musk’s post does not say why Musk considers it accurate. Casado’s count of 500 proposed pieces of legislation is unverified.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Musk endorsed a secondhand account, told by O’Shaughnessy on Invest Like the Best, that Larry Page expects 99.999% of compute to end up in orbit. Casado said the case rests on regulation more than physics, citing 500 proposed pieces of US legislation. Our earlier coverage put space data centers at up to 100 times Earth’s cost, per a Google executive, and launch at 4.9 times top US power spend, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. The podcast quotations are from a speaker-labelled transcript of the 4 November 2026 Invest Like the Best episode published by BidClub, which we read in full and checked against a second transcript of the same passage published by Smash Notes. Musk’s and Hosun Chung’s posts are quoted from X. The figures on cost, launch and data center pauses are from our own earlier reporting, linked in the text. The one-in-100,000 figure is our arithmetic. We did not contact Musk, Page, Casado or O’Shaughnessy.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
