Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI chief technology officer Mira Murati, is raising $5 billion at a $40 billion pre-money valuation, Business Insider reported in an exclusive on Thursday evening, US time, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter. Accel is leading the round, which could close as soon as this week, the sources said. A representative for the company declined to comment, and Accel did not respond, the outlet said.
Its last round was a $2 billion seed that valued the company at $12 billion, TechCrunch reported. By our arithmetic, the reported $40 billion pre-money valuation is about 3.3 times that price, and adding the $5 billion raise implies a post-money valuation of about $45 billion.
The key insight: Business Insider reports Thinking Machines Lab is raising $5 billion at a $40 billion pre-money valuation, led by Accel, possibly closing this week. By our arithmetic that is about 3.3 times its $12 billion seed valuation and five times the round size reported in September.
THINKING MACHINES NEARS $5B RAISE AT $40B VALUATION
โข Accel is leading the round, which could close as soon as this week; the $40B is pre-money โข That would more than triple the AI lab's $10B+ valuation from last year's $2B seed round โข Talks on a round at a $50B valuationโฆ pic.twitter.com/elIgs5I7SE
The @IPONewsroom_ account relayed the Business Insider report at 00:45 UTC on 6 November, listing the $5 billion raise, the $40 billion pre-money valuation, Accel as lead and the abandoned $50 billion talks.
The round: $5 billion at a $40 billion pre-money valuation, led by Accel, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter; it could close as soon as this week.
The step-up: BI wrote that the round would more than triple the company’s valuation from its last public round last year, “showing that investors are still willing to place enormous bets on AI labs even as the industry’s talent war intensifies.”
The earlier talks: last year the company was seeking a round at a $50 billion valuation, but talks were abandoned, BI said.
The product: BI said the company released a new version of Tinker, its system for fine-tuning large language models, on Thursday.
The talent: BI reported that about a third of the founding team has left, including Barret Zoph, Luke Metz and Andrew Tulloch, driven in part by large pay offers from rival labs such as Meta and OpenAI.
Reported valuations of Thinking Machines Lab: the $12 billion of its $2 billion seed round (TechCrunch), the $50 billion it reportedly sought in 2025 before talks were abandoned (Business Insider), the at-least-$40 billion of the September talks (The Information, via TechCrunch) and the $40 billion pre-money valuation Business Insider reports now. The $45 billion post-money figure and the 3.3x multiple are our arithmetic.
In September, The Information reported that the company was in talks to raise $1 billion at a valuation of at least $40 billion, with Accel in talks to lead, TechCrunch reported. By our arithmetic, the $5 billion now reported is five times the size of that September figure, at the same $40 billion headline valuation, now described as pre-money.
TechCrunch also reported in September that the company’s annual revenue run rate stood at over $100 million, according to a source with knowledge of its financials. If that figure still held, $40 billion would be up to 400 times it, by our arithmetic; the run rate is unconfirmed and two months old, so the multiple is an upper bound, not a measured price.
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As we read it, the round has grown, not the price: September’s reported talks were also at about $40 billion, for a fifth of the money.
As we read the timing, a private lab is raising at a higher price in the same week that public investors question Anthropic’s $1.5 trillion IPO target.
As we read BI’s talent section, the money is going to a lab that has lost about a third of its founding team; BI set that against the size of the round.
Business Insider, 6 November 2026
“The startup is raising $5 billion at a $40 billion pre-money valuation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.”
Three Implications
FOR THINKING MACHINES BI says the round could close as soon as this week; the company declined to comment.
FOR ACCEL TechCrunch identified Accel as an existing backer in September; BI says it is leading this round.
FOR AI LABS RAISING PRIVATELY BI reads the round as a sign that investors are still willing to place enormous bets on AI labs even as the talent war intensifies.
The framework says: “The transformer is a commodity now; what changes between paradigms is where intelligence accumulates and who can capture it.”
As we read it, investors paying about $40 billion for Thinking Machines are betting on where it can accumulate an advantage, through its models and its Tinker fine-tuning product, rather than on the model architecture itself. The framework itself does not discuss Thinking Machines or this round.
What Is Not Established
The company has not confirmed the round; it is reported by Business Insider from unnamed sources, and it has not closed. No other investors, no share price and no use of proceeds have been reported. The $45 billion post-money figure and the 3.3x and five-times comparisons are our arithmetic on reported numbers. The over-$100 million run rate is from a single source cited by TechCrunch in September and is not confirmed.
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Thinking Machines Lab is raising $5 billion at a $40 billion pre-money valuation, led by Accel, Business Insider reported. By our arithmetic that is about 3.3 times the $12 billion of its 2025 seed round, and five times the $1 billion raise reported in September.
A note on sourcing. The $5 billion round, the $40 billion pre-money valuation, Accel’s lead role, the abandoned $50 billion talks and the talent details are as reported by Business Insider on 6 November 2026, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter; the company declined to comment. The $12 billion seed valuation, the September talks and the over-$100 million run rate are as reported by TechCrunch on 3 September 2026. The $45 billion post-money figure and the 3.3x, five-times and up-to-400x comparisons are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
