SK hynix expects its fourth-quarter DRAM bit shipments to grow by mid-20% from the third quarter, management said on the company’s third-quarter earnings call, according to the call transcript. The guide follows bit growth of approximately 10% in the third quarter, when the company said DRAM average selling price rose by high 20%.
By our arithmetic, the fourth-quarter guide is more than twice the third-quarter pace: 2.4 to 2.6 times, reading “mid-20%” as 24% to 26%. The call was held on 27 to 28 October.
Business Pill · The Memory Wall
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on why memory bandwidth, not chip speed, often limits AI performance. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss SK hynix’s guidance.
The key insight: SK hynix guided fourth-quarter DRAM bit shipments up by mid-20% from the third quarter, citing its 1c-nanometer process and the M15X ramp; by our arithmetic that is more than twice the approximately 10% bit growth of the third quarter, when DRAM average selling price rose by high 20%.
The company tied the increase to two sources of supply: “production increases due to the expansion of 1c-nanometer process and increased HBM4 production through M15X ramp-up will occur simultaneously.” It then said: “Consequently, fourth quarter shipment volume is expected to grow meaningfully by mid-20% sequentially.”
In its results release, SK hynix said it will ramp up M15X to maximum capacity by the end of the year to increase HBM4 production, and expects HBM4 to surpass HBM3E in both shipment volume and revenue in the fourth quarter. For NAND, the call put fourth-quarter bit shipment growth at a mid-single percent.
DRAM growth quarter on quarter: SK hynix’s third-quarter bit shipments (approximately 10%) and average selling price (high 20%), its fourth-quarter bit shipment guide (mid-20%), from the company’s 27-28 October earnings call, and industry-wide third-quarter bit growth of about 4% from Counterpoint Research. Worded ranges are drawn as bands on our reading (mid-20% = 24-26%, high 20% = 27-29%); the ratio is our arithmetic.
Price Did the Work in the Third Quarter
In the third quarter, SK hynix said it achieved a “sequential big shipment increase of approximately 10% as planned” in DRAM, with server DDR5 shipments up by over 40% from the second quarter. DRAM average selling price “rose by high 20%”, the call said, so price grew faster than volume, by our reading.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of 104.6155 trillion won and operating profit of 83.3338 trillion won, an operating margin of 80%, in its release. Across the industry, Counterpoint Research said DRAM bit shipments rose only about 4% in the third quarter, so prices drove the growth; by our arithmetic, SK hynix’s approximately 10% was about 2.5 times that industry figure.
The Contract Side
SK hynix says it has signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, including leading global cloud service providers, and that the volume secured to date corresponds to more than 50% of total production capacity for 2027 and 2028. Prices move within a range agreed with each customer, the release says.
On the call, an executive said the volume under agreements plus demand under discussion means “our DRAM and HBM volumes for the next 3 years through 2029 are effectively sold out.” The release says SK hynix expects demand to exceed supply through 2030.
Samsung, the other Korean memory maker, said on its 29 October call that its goal of raising long-term agreements to 60% to 70% of production capacity by 2030 is more likely to be reached, Hankyung reported, as we reported on 2 November. That figure is a goal for 2030, not capacity already under contract; Datanews put Samsung’s signed multi-year contracts at 10 large customers, with 10 more in negotiation.
Against Slipping Spot Prices
The guide lands as spot prices soften. In the eight days to 11 November, TrendForce’s spot averages for DDR5 16Gb and DDR4 8Gb chips fell 2.1% and 4.1%, as we reported on Wednesday.
Contract prices are still expected to rise: fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices are expected to rise about 20% quarter on quarter, Commercial Times reported, as relayed by TrendForce on 20 October, with price ceilings under long-term agreements gradually taking effect.
Our Numbers
By our arithmetic, a mid-20% fourth-quarter rise in bit shipments is 2.4 to 2.6 times the approximately 10% of the third quarter. In the third quarter, average price rose by high 20% against volume of about 10%, so most of the growth came from price, by our reading.
By our reading, the fourth-quarter guide is in the same range as the 2027 full-year DRAM demand growth SK hynix gave on the call, a mid-20% rate. One is the company’s own quarter-on-quarter shipments and the other is a year-on-year market figure, so they are not like for like.
The Structural Read
As we read the call, the third quarter was a price quarter: average selling price rose by high 20% against bit shipments of approximately 10%. The fourth-quarter guide puts volume growth in the 20s as well.
As we read the contract side, SK hynix says more than 50% of its 2027 and 2028 capacity is under long-term agreements priced within agreed ranges, so the extra volume lands in a market where its prices are partly set in advance.
SK hynix third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 27-28 October 2026
“Consequently, fourth quarter shipment volume is expected to grow meaningfully by mid-20% sequentially.”
Three Implications
FOR SK HYNIX The company says fourth-quarter DRAM bit shipments are expected to grow by mid-20% from the third quarter, with M15X at maximum capacity by the end of the year.
FOR BUYERS SK hynix says the volume under long-term agreements is more than 50% of total production capacity for 2027 and 2028, with prices moving within an agreed range.
FOR THE PRICE DEBATE TrendForce spot averages for DDR5 16Gb and DDR4 8Gb chips fell 2.1% and 4.1% in the eight days to 11 November, as we reported, while the company guides volume up.
The analysis says: “HBM growth is outpacing accelerator demand, making memory the rate-limiting factor in the AI scaling equation.”
As we read it, SK hynix ties part of its fourth-quarter volume guide to more HBM4 from M15X, and says HBM4 is expected to pass HBM3E in shipments and revenue this quarter. The analysis predates the call and does not discuss this guidance.
What Is Not Established
The company gave worded ranges, not exact figures, for both the fourth-quarter guide and the third-quarter price rise; our ratios rest on our reading of “mid-20%” and “high 20%”. The transcript is an interpreted English version of the call.
SK hynix did not give a fourth-quarter price guide in the material we read, and its fourth-quarter results are not yet reported. Counterpoint’s 4% is an industry-wide figure measured separately from SK hynix’s own count.
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SK hynix guided fourth-quarter DRAM bit shipments up by mid-20% from the third quarter, citing its 1c process and the M15X ramp. By our arithmetic, that is more than twice the approximately 10% of the third quarter, when price rose by high 20% and did most of the work.
A note on sourcing. SK hynix’s guidance, third-quarter figures and quotations are from the transcript of its third-quarter 2026 earnings call, published by The Motley Fool on 28 October 2026 (an interpreted English version), and from the company’s results release of the same date. The Counterpoint, Hankyung, Datanews, TrendForce and Commercial Times figures are restated from our own earlier pieces, which link to them. The lead came from posts on X; we used them as a pointer only. The ratios and readings are ours.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
