The cost of insuring Nvidia’s debt against default for five years rose as much as 3.25 basis points on 12 November to 1.445 percentage points a year, Bloomberg reported, citing ICE Data Services. That is just short of the intraday high set on 3 November. At that level, protecting $10 million of Nvidia debt costs about $144,500 a year, by our arithmetic.
Bloomberg reported the rise as Nvidia’s board met to decide the fate of Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang. Nvidia’s latest quarterly report shows it sold $25.0 billion of senior unsecured notes across seven tranches in June 2026. Notes outstanding rose to $33.5 billion at 26 July from $8.5 billion at 25 January, about 3.9 times, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Credit Spreads
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on credit spreads: why two borrowers pay different rates. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nvidia or its debt.
The key insight: As we read the two sources together, the swap market is charging more to insure Nvidia’s credit in the same year its own filing shows more debt to insure: notes went from $8.5 billion to $33.5 billion in the first half, while cash and marketable debt securities of $56.6 billion still exceeded them by about $23.1 billion at 26 July, by our arithmetic.
A credit default swap pays out if a borrower defaults, so its price is a running read of how the market weighs that risk. Bloomberg reported that Nvidia’s five-year swap costs have more than tripled since mid-year. It added that they are still only about half the level for SpaceX and Oracle, which it described as lower-rated hyperscalers.
The $144,500 figure is an illustration: 1.445% of $10 million for one year. Traded contracts settle through standard coupons plus an upfront payment, so a buyer’s cash flows differ. Swaps tied to AI borrowers are drawing new products too; nine proposed ETFs would bet on AI credit stress via CDS.
Nvidia’s senior notes principal by time to maturity at 26 July 2026: $1.0 billion within one year, $15.0 billion in one to five years, $7.5 billion in five to ten years and $10.0 billion after ten years, $33.5 billion in all, from Note 9 and the maturity table of its Form 10-Q. The split between notes issued before 2026 ($8.5 billion) and the seven tranches sold in June 2026 ($25.0 billion) is our arithmetic from the note-by-note list.
What Nvidia Owes
The June sale was seven tranches, according to Note 9 of the 10-Q: $3.5 billion of 4.25% notes due 2028, $3.5 billion of 4.35% notes due 2029, $4.0 billion of 4.50% notes due 2031, $3.5 billion of 4.75% notes due 2033, $4.0 billion of 4.95% notes due 2036, $3.0 billion of 5.55% notes due 2046 and $3.5 billion of 5.625% notes due 2056. The filing says the notes were issued “for general corporate purposes”.
At the stated coupons, the fourteen series carry about $1.45 billion of interest a year, of which about $1.21 billion comes from the June tranches, by our arithmetic. Of the $33.5 billion, $1.0 billion was due within one year, $15.0 billion in one to five years, $7.5 billion in five to ten years and $10.0 billion after ten years. The 10-Q puts the fair value of the debt at $31.4 billion.
Nvidia also has a $25.0 billion commercial paper program, with no amounts outstanding at 26 July, and says it complied with the covenants on its notes. The cash flow statement shows $24.9 billion of debt proceeds, net of costs, in the six months to 26 July.
What Nvidia Holds Against It
Cash and cash equivalents were $22.4 billion at 26 July and marketable debt securities $34.1 billion, the 10-Q shows. Together that is $56.6 billion, about $23.1 billion more than the notes, or about 1.7 times, by our arithmetic. The comparison leaves out $42.8 billion of marketable equity securities; the filing says $36.9 billion of its investments are subject to short-term lock-up restrictions.
Nvidia’s own risk factors flag the refinancing question: “As each series of senior notes matures, unless redeemed or repurchased, we must either repay or refinance the notes”. The filing adds that if it refinances, “we may receive less favorable terms or be unable to refinance at all”.
As we read the maturity table, the June sale lengthened the ladder: $17.5 billion of the $33.5 billion falls due after five years, and $11.0 billion of the $25.0 billion June tranches matures within five years, by our arithmetic.
As we read Bloomberg’s comparison, the rise leaves Nvidia’s swaps at about half the level of SpaceX and Oracle, two borrowers Bloomberg described as lower-rated.
Bloomberg, 12 November 2026
“While costs have more than tripled since mid-year, the swaps are only about half the level for lower-rated hyperscalers SpaceX and Oracle Corp.”
Three Implications
FOR HOLDERS OF NVIDIA NOTES The 10-Q puts the fair value of the debt at $31.4 billion against $33.5 billion of principal at 26 July.
FOR REFINANCING Of the $33.5 billion, $16.0 billion falls due within five years, by our arithmetic, and Nvidia had a $25.0 billion commercial paper program with nothing outstanding at 26 July.
FOR THE BOARD STORY Bloomberg reported the 12 November rise alongside the board meeting on the chief executive; our explainer sets out the board’s voting rules.
The framework says: “It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing — and the financial architecture is starting to invert.”
As we read it, Nvidia’s $25.0 billion June bond sale and the swap market’s pricing of its credit both sit on the financing side of the AI build-out the framework describes. The framework predates this week’s moves and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
We could read only the opening of Bloomberg’s report; it gives the 3 November high as a reference but not its level in the part we read, and we did not see ICE’s data directly. The 10-Q balances are at 26 July, before this week’s board meetings; the 3.20% notes due 2026, $1.0 billion, had about 0.1 years left then, and we did not check whether they have been repaid.
The swap move and the bond sale are shown side by side; neither source links one to the other. Nvidia was not contacted for this piece.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Insuring Nvidia’s debt for five years cost up to 1.445 percentage points a year on 12 November, Bloomberg reported, near its 3 November high: about $144,500 a year per $10 million, by our arithmetic. Nvidia’s notes rose to $33.5 billion after a $25.0 billion June sale, while its cash and marketable debt securities of $56.6 billion were about 1.7 times that principal at 26 July, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. The swap prices come from Bloomberg’s report of 12 November, which cites ICE Data Services; only its opening was readable to us and we did not see ICE’s data. Debt, cash and risk-factor details come from Nvidia’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026, read on SEC EDGAR. The $10 million illustration, ratios and totals are our arithmetic. Nvidia was not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
