Third-quarter group revenue was $980.8 million, up 571% from a year earlier and 68% from the second quarter. It included approximately $325 million that Nebius called non-recurring revenue from its asset-light model. Without it, revenue rose about 13% from the second quarter’s $582.3 million, by our arithmetic.
Analysts expected $907.5 million of third-quarter revenue, according to the LSEG consensus cited by CNBC, which reported that Nebius beat estimates but that its shares fell. Revenue excluding the approximately $325 million was below that consensus, by our arithmetic; CNBC did not say whether the estimates included asset-light revenue.
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The key insight: As we read the letter, Nebius is asking for about $3.40 of 2027 capex per dollar of 2027 revenue at the midpoints, by our arithmetic, and says prepayments and asset-backed financing alone cover 75% to 85% of it, while its $7 billion ARR mark moved from December to February.
Update, 12 November 2026, regular session: the share move deepened. After the 14:30 UTC open, Nebius traded at $129.20 at 14:55 UTC, according to Yahoo Finance data, 16.5% below Wednesday’s $154.69 close by our arithmetic; CNBC’s quote showed $129.38, down 16.36%, at about 15:00 UTC. The first one-minute bar opened at $119.88, and the session low by 14:55 UTC was $118.81, 23.2% below the prior close. On the 292,902,405 shares Nebius reported outstanding at 30 September, $129.20 values the company at about $37.8 billion, about $7.5 billion less than the roughly $45.3 billion at Wednesday’s close, by our arithmetic. CNBC tied the fall to guidance: 2026 capital spending of $27 billion versus a FactSet estimate of $23.85 billion, and 2027 capex of $40 billion to $45 billion versus $28.77 billion.
Update, 12 November 2026: the share move
Nebius shares sank 10% on Thursday, CNBC reported, as the company beat revenue estimates but “issued disappointing guidance”. CNBC set the guide against FactSet expectations: 2026 capex of $27 billion against $23.85 billion expected, and 2027 capex of $40 billion to $45 billion, which “came in much higher than the FactSet expectation of $28.77 billion”. The $42.5 billion midpoint is about 48% above that estimate, by our arithmetic. 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion compared with $12.09 billion expected, and Nebius guided 2026 revenue to the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range, against $3.35 billion expected by FactSet.
In premarket trading the stock was at $136.00 at 13:08 UTC, according to Yahoo Finance data, 12.1% below Wednesday’s $154.69 close by our arithmetic. On the 292,902,405 shares Nebius reported outstanding at 30 September, the drop erased about $5.5 billion of market value, from about $45.3 billion at Wednesday’s close to about $39.8 billion, by our arithmetic. CNBC said Nebius had climbed 15% on Wednesday and that CoreWeave, Applied Digital and IREN also fell premarket after the report.
Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range, with the adjusted EBITDA margin unchanged at approximately 40%. It said some third-party capacity it expected this year is now scheduled for the first half of 2027, and that the contracts behind it remain in place.
On annualized run-rate revenue, the letter says Nebius had guided to $7 billion to $9 billion by December and now expects ARR to exceed $7 billion for the month of February, “a shift of about two months”. ARR was $6.4 billion at the end of September, up 113% from $3.0 billion at the end of June.
The letter says Nebius no longer sees ARR as the right measure of its business and, from 2027, will guide on revenue, pre-tax earnings and capacity. It expects pre-tax breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2027, after financing costs and assuming a five-year depreciation life for compute.
At the $3.0 billion low end, the fourth quarter needs about $1.04 billion of revenue after $1,962.1 million in nine months, by our arithmetic. An approximately 40% full-year margin on $3.0 billion is about $1.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA, which leaves about $368 million, or about 35%, for the fourth quarter after $831.5 million in nine months.
Third-quarter capex was approximately $7.3 billion, and nine-month purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets were $15.4 billion. Against approximately $27 billion for the year, that leaves about $11.6 billion for the fourth quarter on that cash-flow measure, by our arithmetic. Nebius said the higher figure reflects investment in capacity for 2027, “in particular at our owned sites”.
Nebius guidance from its third-quarter 2026 letter to shareholders: 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range against capex of approximately $27 billion; 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion against capex of $40 billion to $45 billion. 2027 bars are drawn at range midpoints; the multiples are our arithmetic.
How Nebius Says It Will Pay
The letter says prepayments and asset-backed financing of existing investment-grade contracts alone are expected to fund 75% to 85% of the $40 billion to $45 billion of 2027 capex. The remaining 15% to 25% is $6.0 billion to $11.25 billion, by our arithmetic; Nebius lists further prepayments, asset-backed financing, its balance sheet, corporate debt or equity as sources.
Nebius expects $10 billion of committed customer prepayments in 2026, rising to $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027. It said prepayments on deals signed in the third quarter covered more than 100% of the associated capex, up from 50% to 60% in the second quarter, and payback on comparable one-to-three-year deals improved to 1 year and 7 months from 1 year and 10 months.
This year’s external capital included $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August, approximately $1.0 billion of net proceeds from its at-the-market program in the third quarter and a $3.5 billion senior secured facility with Citi in October. In July it closed a $775 million asset-backed facility at SOFR plus 2.50%.
Cash and cash equivalents were $7.4 billion at 30 September, against $8.04 billion at 30 June. Shares outstanding rose 7.7% in the quarter to 292,902,405 from 271,855,218, and total debt rose to $14.19 billion from $8.55 billion, by our arithmetic from the two quarterly balance sheets.
Where the Prepayments Sit
Third-quarter operating cash flow from continuing operations was an outflow of $273.0 million, against an inflow of $2,246.1 million in the second quarter. The cash flow statement shows deferred revenue rose $3,434.0 million in the quarter while accounts receivable rose $3,761.8 million.
Accounts receivable stood at $4,039.9 million on 30 September, about 14 times the $288.6 million at 30 June, by our arithmetic. Deferred revenue on the balance sheet reached $9.4 billion, current and non-current combined, by our arithmetic.
Group adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million, a 47% margin, and the Nebius AI cloud business reported adjusted EBITDA of $518.2 million at a 53.2% margin. The net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million and adjusted net income was $90.9 million.
Power and Capacity
Nebius said it now has more than 4 GW of contracted power and still expects 5 GW by the end of 2026, adding a 300 MW expansion in Missouri, a planned 100 MW project in Alberta, a 50 MW colocation in South Carolina and two colocations in India.
In New Jersey, Nebius expects to have delivered more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft by year-end, with the remaining tranches now scheduled for 2Q27. It said DataOne began retiring some of the site’s temporary generation in late Q3 ahead of a move to permanent power, and that Bloom fuel cells will be the main power source.
The 2027 capex is sized for more than 1 GW of new capacity, and Nebius said owned sites in Missouri, Lappeenranta, Mäntsälä and Alabama represent more than 3 GW at scale over the next 3 to 3.5 years. Remaining performance obligations were $38.7 billion, up 3% from $37.5 billion at the end of June. Our preview set out the guidance Nebius had reaffirmed in August.
The Structural Read
As we read the cash flow statement, the prepayments are booked faster than they are collected: deferred revenue rose $3,434.0 million in the quarter while receivables rose $3,761.8 million, and operating cash flow was an outflow of $273.0 million.
As we read the guide, the 2026 shortfall is about timing rather than demand in Nebius’s own telling: it says the contracts behind third-party capacity moved to 2027 remain in place, while it raised 2026 capex to approximately $27 billion for 2027 capacity.
Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO of Nebius, letter to shareholders Q3 2026, 12 November 2026
“Prepayments on Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of the associated capex.”
Three Implications
FOR SHAREHOLDERS Shares outstanding rose 7.7% in the quarter, by our arithmetic, and Nebius said it will remain opportunistic about raising external capital.
FOR LENDERS Nebius said its Microsoft and Meta agreements can be financed through its asset-backed framework, after a first $775 million facility at SOFR plus 2.50%.
FOR CUSTOMERS Nebius said prices in Q3 rose on average more than 20% per GPU-hour versus Q2, and annual contract value per MW exceeded $25 million.
The framework says: “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle. It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing”.
As we read it, Nebius’s letter is that financing problem at company scale: a $40 billion to $45 billion plan funded first by customer prepayments and asset-backed debt. The framework predates these results and does not discuss Nebius’s third quarter.
Nebius’s third-quarter 2026 group revenue of $980.8 million, of which approximately $325 million was non-recurring revenue from its asset-light model, per its letter to shareholders. The remainder and the one-third share are our arithmetic.
Update, 12 November 2026: the two customers in the filings
Two customers carry most of the contract value Nebius has disclosed in filings. Its September 2025 6-K put the Microsoft agreement for its Vineland, New Jersey data center at “about $17.4 billion through 2031”, or about $19.4 billion if Microsoft takes additional capacity, with tranches to be deployed “during 2025 and 2026”. The same filing says that if Nebius misses agreed delivery dates after a grace period and cannot provide alternative capacity, “Microsoft has the right to terminate that GPU Service”. The third-quarter letter now schedules the remaining New Jersey tranches for 2Q27.
A November 2025 6-K put a first Meta order at approximately $2.9 billion. A March 2026 6-K describes a second Meta agreement of up to approximately $27 billion: $12 billion of five-year orders with deployments in tranches starting early 2027, and up to $15 billion under which Meta must buy capacity on certain clusters that Nebius does not sell to other customers. The firm amounts add up to $32.3 billion, by our arithmetic. These are lifetime contract values, not the remaining amounts inside the $38.7 billion of remaining performance obligations Nebius reported at 30 September.
Nebius’s 20-F for 2025 does not name its customers. It shows Customer A at 25% of 2025 revenue and Customer B at 15%, and Customer D at $597.0 million, or 83%, of accounts receivable at the end of 2025.
What Is Not Established
The release and letter do not name the asset-light partner behind the approximately $325 million, split 2027 capex between GPUs and buildings, or say when the $4.04 billion of receivables will be collected. Nebius’s Form 6-K was not on EDGAR when we checked at 12:38 UTC. The earnings call was due at 13:00 UTC, after we wrote; we did not contact Nebius.
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Nebius guided to $40 billion to $45 billion of 2027 capex on $12 billion to $13 billion of revenue, about 3.4 times at the midpoints by our arithmetic, and moved its $7 billion ARR mark from December to February. Excluding approximately $325 million of non-recurring revenue, third-quarter revenue rose about 13% from the second quarter, by our arithmetic.
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A note on sourcing. All figures come from Nebius Group’s third-quarter 2026 release and letter to shareholders of 12 November, read in full including the financial tables, and its second-quarter release for 30 June balances. The LSEG revenue consensus is from CNBC’s report of 12 November. Its Form 6-K was not on EDGAR when we wrote. Multiples, implied fourth-quarter figures and the revenue excluding non-recurring items are our arithmetic. Nebius was not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
