MiniMax, Zhipu Shed $150B From Peaks Before January Unlock

Bloomberg reported on 23 October 2026 that the selloff in Chinese AI model developer stocks shows no sign of easing, under the headline “China AI Model Stocks’ $150 Billion Drop Shows No Sign of Easing.” In its post on X, Bloomberg wrote that there’s “no end in sight for the brutal selloff in China’s artificial intelligence model developer stocks, with competition growing ever more heated and the threat of rival listings next year.”

The two companies in question are MiniMax and Zhipu, the Chinese model makers that listed in Hong Kong in January. A summary of the Bloomberg report posted on X by @choblin29 says they “have erased a combined $150 BILLION from their peaks.” Exchange data puts MiniMax’s 22 October close 87.0% below its highest close and Zhipu’s 80.9% below, by our arithmetic.

Business Pill · OPEN WEIGHTS EXPLAINED

A short Business Engineer explainer on open-weight models: renting a model versus running it yourself. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about MiniMax or Zhipu.

What Bloomberg Reported

Bloomberg’s full article sits behind a paywall, and we read only its headline and its post on X. A post on X by @choblin29 credits Bloomberg for the first three figures below; the last two appear in the same post without a source named. We label each one.

• The drop. The summary says MiniMax and Zhipu “have erased a combined $150 BILLION from their peaks,” matching the $150 billion in Bloomberg’s headline.
• MiniMax. The summary says MiniMax “went from +650% above its IPO price in March to trading BELOW its IPO price.”
• Zhipu. The summary says Zhipu “has crashed 81% from its June high.”
• Prices. The post also says “OpenAI and Anthropic have joined the token price war to narrow Chinese models’ cost advantage, while MiniMax and Zhipu remain unprofitable.”
• Supply of shares. The post also says “DeepSeek and Moonshot AI could IPO next year, and another 203 million pre-IPO MiniMax and Zhipu shares become eligible for trading in January.”

What Was Posted on X

Bloomberg’s post on X, 23 October 2026, introducing its report on the selloff in Chinese AI model developer stocks.

A post on X by @choblin29, 23 October 2026. It credits Bloomberg for the $150 billion drop and the MiniMax and Zhipu price figures; the post gives no source for its price-war, profitability, IPO and January share-unlock claims.

What the Exchange Data Shows

Sources: IPO prices as reported by eWeek at each listing; daily closes in Hong Kong dollars from the Yahoo Finance chart feed for the Hong Kong listings, read on 23 October 2026; the 203 million figure is from the @choblin29 post, which names no source for it; the MiniMax lock-up date is from its announcement to the Hong Kong exchange of 13 March 2026. Changes from the highest close are our arithmetic.

MiniMax listed at HK$165 a share, according to eWeek, and its highest close was HK$1,238 on 18 March, according to the exchange data. That is 7.5 times the IPO price, or +650%, by our arithmetic, matching the summary.

On 22 October MiniMax closed at HK$160.70, 2.6% below its IPO price, by our arithmetic. On 23 October, after Bloomberg’s report appeared, it closed at HK$187.60, up 16.7% on the day and about 13.7% above the IPO price.

Zhipu listed at HK$116.20, according to eWeek, and its highest close was HK$2,410 on 22 June. Its 22 October close of HK$460.80 was 80.9% below that, by our arithmetic, in line with the 81% in the summary. It closed at HK$499.00 on 23 October, still about 4.3 times its IPO price.

What MiniMax’s Filing Says About January

MiniMax’s announcement to the Hong Kong exchange of 13 March 2026 lists 8 January 2027, 12 months from the listing date, as the end of the lock-up for its founders, executive directors and their close associates.

Those holdings total about 91.5 million shares, or about 29.2% of the 313.6 million shares in issue at that date, by our arithmetic on the filing. The same announcement put the end of the lock-up for its miHoYo and IDG investors at 8 July 2026.

Connecting the Coverage

Our MiniMax open-weights piece reported that MiniMax published the weights of its M3.1 Flash model on 23 October. The licence grants free use for non-commercial purposes, and products with more than $20 million in yearly revenue need MiniMax’s prior written authorization.

Our export-filing piece reported that DeepSeek and MiniMax completed registration under China’s new pre-export filing rule for AI technology, according to Chinese state media on 22 October.

Our DeepSeek piece reported that DeepSeek raised about 100 billion yuan in an equity round, according to Bloomberg on 22 October. What’s new: Bloomberg’s X post cites “the threat of rival listings next year,” and the @choblin29 post names DeepSeek and Moonshot AI.

Our Solidigm piece quoted Bloomberg reporting that SK Hynix scrapped a potential $10 billion US listing of the unit, “becoming the latest firm to pull an IPO while markets gyrate on doubts about the AI boom.” Our selloff piece reported that the Nasdaq fell 2.6% on 22 October, according to Reuters.

The Structural Read

As we read it, both listings gave back most of their gains, not all of them: Zhipu’s 23 October close of HK$499.00 was still about 4.3 times its IPO price, by our arithmetic, while 79.3% below its June high.

As we read it, the pressure named in the @choblin29 post comes from two sides: the post says OpenAI and Anthropic have joined the token price war, and that DeepSeek and Moonshot AI could IPO next year.

As we read it, the share supply is a dated event: MiniMax’s filing puts the end of its key persons’ lock-up at 8 January 2027, and the @choblin29 post says another 203 million pre-IPO MiniMax and Zhipu shares become eligible for trading in January.

Three Implications

FOR HOLDERS OF THE TWO STOCKS MiniMax’s filing dates the end of its key persons’ lock-up to 8 January 2027; the @choblin29 post says 203 million pre-IPO MiniMax and Zhipu shares become eligible in January.

FOR BUYERS OF MODEL ACCESS The @choblin29 post says OpenAI and Anthropic have joined the token price war to narrow Chinese models’ cost advantage.

FOR THE NEXT CHINESE AI LISTINGS The @choblin29 post says DeepSeek and Moonshot AI could IPO next year; our DeepSeek piece reported its equity round of about 100 billion yuan, per Bloomberg.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The Open vs Closed Meta-Framework.

The framework sets out the pattern as: “Close the SCARCE layer (keep proprietary) + Open the ABUNDANT layer (commoditize).”

As we read it, MiniMax is running that play in the open: it published the M3.1 Flash weights on 23 October while keeping a sign-off on products above $20 million in yearly revenue, the same week its shares traded near the IPO price. The framework was published in March 2026 and does not discuss MiniMax or Zhipu.

What Is Not Established

We could not read Bloomberg’s article beyond its headline and its X post, so the $150 billion figure for the two companies rests on Bloomberg’s headline and the @choblin29 post, and the price-war, unprofitability, IPO and 203 million share points rest on that post alone. MiniMax’s filing covers only its key persons’ shares; we did not find Zhipu’s lock-up dates in what we read. Market values were not computed here. The exchange closes are from a data feed, not from the exchange’s own site. We did not contact MiniMax or Zhipu. Nothing here is investment advice.

The Bottom Line

MiniMax closed 87.0% below its March high and Zhipu 80.9% below its June high on 22 October, by our arithmetic on the exchange data, the day before Bloomberg reported a $150 billion drop in China’s AI model stocks. Both rose on 23 October, and MiniMax’s own filing says the lock-up on its key persons’ shares ends on 8 January 2027.