Micron and Sandisk Have $225B in Memory Sales Under Contract

Micron and Sandisk now report about $225 billion of memory sales already under contract, by our arithmetic from their own filings and calls, as of 19 October 2026. Micron’s annual report puts its remaining performance obligations at approximately $134 billion as of 3 September 2026, and Sandisk’s chief financial officer put its figure at $91.1 billion including two deals signed after its quarter closed.

Micron’s annual report says that as of 28 August 2025 its remaining performance obligations “were not material”. It now describes take-or-pay agreements backed by customer deposits, and Sandisk, SK hynix and Samsung all describe multi-year agreements. As we read it, memory is starting to be bought the way data-centre builders contract for power: years ahead, with cash up front.

Business Pill · BACKLOG

A short explainer on backlog, revenue that is signed but not yet earned. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about any company in this story.

Sandisk Says Long-Term Deals Now Run Its Business

On its 5 August 2026 earnings call, Sandisk chief financial officer Luis Visoso said: “In total, we now have NBMs with eight diverse data center and edge customers”. Sandisk’s annual report says these are “long-term agreements, which we also refer to as New Business Models, or “NBMs,””.

He said “The total expected revenue from all our NBMs we have signed is a minimum of $93.9 billion, assuming floor pricing” and “We believe actual revenue will be above that minimum.” By our arithmetic, that minimum is about 4.6 times Sandisk’s fiscal 2026 revenue of $20,248 million.

Visoso said “We expect our NBMs to represent more than 50% of our bits in fiscal year 2027 and approximately 2/3 of our bits in fiscal year 2028”, with “a weighted average duration of over four years”. He added that “NBMs are quickly becoming our predominant way of doing business.”

Customers are also paying up front. Visoso said the deals include “financial guarantees through a combination of cash deposits and financial instruments totaling $16.5 billion”, and that adjusted free cash flow “excludes $1,938 million in NBM prepayments and deposits”. Sandisk’s annual report says its contract liabilities were $1,242 million as of 3 July 2026, against $25 million a year earlier.

What Was Posted on X

The @intelfabs account posted on 19 October that Mizuho reiterated its $2,050 Sandisk target, listing the $93.9 billion minimum revenue floor, eight customers and the share of fiscal 2027 and 2028 bits committed. Those figures match what Sandisk’s chief financial officer said on the 5 August call, which is the source this piece quotes.

Dan Nystedt posted on 15 October that Taiwan President William Lai urged Micron management and workers to resolve their differences ahead of a possible strike, citing media reports, and that Taiwan is Micron’s main HBM chip production center, with 15,000 workers. This piece uses it for the labour risk to supply.

Bloomberg posted its Gwangju feature on X at 05:48 UTC on 20 October, saying the plan could spread wealth from the AI boom to a less developed area but also risks further friction with the US. The figures in our 20 October Update are Bloomberg’s: an 800 trillion won investment in four Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plants, with the government expecting the first to begin mass production by 2030, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick telling Bloomberg Television: “They need to build here.”

Milk Road AI (@milkroadai) posted on 21 October that the memory supercycle is in its early stages, citing HBM capacity per GPU up 3.6x from Nvidia’s H100 to B300, memory per server expected to double over three years, and AI context lengths growing roughly 30x a year; those are the poster’s figures. It quotes @MelvinInvests saying Micron’s 26 long-term agreements cover about 35% of its revenue through 2030; on the call, Micron described the 35% in terms of bit volume, as our 23 October Update notes.

Antfeed, a news-recap app, posts its recap of Nomura research: consumer electronics inflation of 5.8% across Asia and 12.3% in South Korea, with Taiwan, Indonesia and Korea flagged as most exposed. The post calls itself an independent recap, not an official Nomura translation; the piece uses it as the consumer side of the memory squeeze.

Micron’s Contract Book Is About a Year of Revenue

Micron’s annual report, filed on 9 October 2026, describes “strategic customer agreements structured as take-or-pay agreements, with binding commitments for specific contractually enforceable volumes over the multi-year contract terms.”

It says that as of 3 September 2026, “the transaction price allocated to our remaining performance obligations was approximately $ 134 billion, of which $ 13 billion has been recognized as contract liabilities.” By our arithmetic, $134 billion is roughly equal to Micron’s fiscal 2026 revenue of $133.19 billion.

Micron’s cash flow statement shows $12,747 million of “Proceeds from customer contract liability deposits” in fiscal 2026. The annual report says “Nearly all of the deposits are scheduled to be repaid between 2029 and 2031.”

SK Hynix and Samsung Sign the Same Kind of Deal

SK hynix said in its second-quarter results release on 29 July 2026 that it “has finalized Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) with around 10 customers, including key strategic partners, and is continuing further discussions with major industry clients.”

According to TheElec’s report on the company’s 29 July earnings call, the agreements typically run “around five years”, and the contracts include “customer purchase commitments for long-term volumes and financial mechanisms, such as deposits, to support contract execution”.

CNBC reported on 30 July 2026 that Samsung “has finalized agreements with top five global data center customers and is in the final stages of talks with five additional major accounts”, and that Samsung “expects supply constraints to tighten further in 2027”.

The Commitments, Side by Side

The table sets out what each memory maker has disclosed about committed demand, in its own words or as reported, with the date.

The companies use different measures and dates: Micron’s figure is remaining performance obligations at 3 September 2026; Sandisk’s is its chief financial officer’s figure from 5 August 2026. Adding them, about $225 billion, is our arithmetic.

This Week’s Memory News

SK hynix stock rose 4.8% in morning trading on Monday, StreetInsider reported, after a weekend report that Nvidia has asked SK hynix, Samsung and Micron to produce base dies for its NVHBM memory using TSMC’s 3-nanometer process. We covered Nvidia’s NVHBM design and Samsung’s TSMC base-die plan earlier.

Supply also faces a labour risk in Taiwan. Reuters reported on 7 October that a Micron union there had won approval to strike. Dan Nystedt wrote on X that Taiwan is Micron’s “main HBM chip production center”, with 15,000 workers.

Update, 20 October: Korea Plans a Samsung, SK Hynix Hub in Gwangju

Bloomberg reported on 19 October that South Korea plans to relocate a military airport in Gwangju, about 266 kilometres from Seoul, as part of a 1,350 trillion won ($1 trillion) investment push spanning semiconductors, physical AI and data centres. The vacated site is set to become the centrepiece of an 800 trillion won investment in four semiconductor plants by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Bloomberg said the government expects the first of the four fabs to begin mass production by 2030.

Bloomberg said the plan risks friction with Washington. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg Television: “They’re going to build here. They need to build here. It’s vital that they build here,” and Bloomberg said he warned of fresh tariffs if Seoul does not comply. Moving the base also needs coordination with the US, because Gwangju is one of the bases designated to receive US air assets in a contingency. Bloomberg said Seoul hasn’t said whether Washington has signed off, and United States Forces Korea declined to comment.

As we read it, for the contracts above this is capacity on paper, not yet supply. Bloomberg reported that the fabs would need about 650,000 tons of water a day and about 23,000 workers, and that Nomura economist Jeong-Woo Park cited uncertainty over how much of the investment will actually materialise.

Update, 20 October: A Supply-Side Risk in the Memory Boom

A union representing Micron workers in Taoyuan, Taiwan, plans to strike on Thursday, 22 October, after failed talks over how the company shares its profits, Reuters reported on 20 October, as summarised by The Next Web. The Next Web said the union has not said how long the strike will last, and that it coincides with a mediation meeting between Micron and a second union at Taichung, the company’s largest Taiwan site. In a vote held from 1 to 6 October, 1,994 of the Taoyuan union’s 2,258 members backed a strike, it reported.

The unions want Micron to allocate 15% of its operating profit to employee bonuses paid quarterly, and, according to an AFP-based report in Asharq Al-Awsat, a one-off bonus of 83 months’ salary. The same report said Micron last month offered the equivalent of up to 68 months of pay, which workers rejected, and that Micron makes around 50-60 percent of its chips in Taiwan. Micron said it was “committed to constructive engagement with the Taoyuan and Taichung Unions to reach a solution that works for all parties.”

As we read it, this is a labour cost and timing question for the contracts above, not a reported supply cut: neither report says production has stopped. The Next Web noted that Taiwan is a key production base for Micron’s DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, and that the Taichung union has yet to hold its own strike vote.

Update, 23 October: 26 Deals, and Customers Looking Past 2030

Micron now has 26 strategic customer agreements, it said on its fiscal fourth-quarter call on 30 September, including 10 signed since its previous call, which president and chief operating officer Manish Bhatia said range “from small to large SCA customers.” Asked by Citi’s Atif Malik about “the 26 SCAs, 35% of sales by 2030,” Bhatia said the agreements cover both DRAM and NAND through 2030 and added: “I can tell you that the DRAM volume is a little bit less than that, approximately 35%, and the NAND bit volume is a little bit more.” He said about three quarters of SCA revenue has a defined pricing framework, and that customers are “now extending those commitments beyond 2030,” according to the Motley Fool’s transcript of the call.

Analysts at KeyBanc went further. They believe HP and Dell extended their agreements with Micron into 2031, and said Alphabet has been in talks with memory companies to extend its long-term agreements out to 2035, the Motley Fool reported on 18 October. KeyBanc also projected DRAM prices rising 15% to 20% quarter over quarter and NAND prices by over 20%, according to the same report. Those customer names are KeyBanc’s; in the call transcript we read, Micron did not name its SCA customers.

As we read it, the 35% figure is easy to misquote: Micron described it as a share of bit volume, with DRAM a little below and NAND a little above, while some posts on X give it as a share of revenue.

The Structural Read

As we read it, the deposits matter as much as the totals: Micron took in $12,747 million of customer deposits in fiscal 2026 and Sandisk’s deals carry $16.5 billion of guarantees, which means buyers are paying to hold capacity, not only promising to buy it. The same pressure shows up in our piece on SK hynix and the Asian memory selloff.

As we read it, the buyers are the companies building the largest clusters. Meta’s engineering team described the scale of one such build in our piece on its Prometheus cluster; the memory makers’ filings do not name their customers, so that link is context, not a disclosed contract.

As we read it, the contracts also cut the other way: Micron’s filing warns that customer purchases made to meet these obligations could leave customers holding elevated inventories, and that the figures are not indicative of future revenue.

Three Implications

CONTRACTED, NOT SPOT Micron reports approximately $134 billion of remaining performance obligations, against “not material” a year earlier.

CASH UP FRONT Micron took in $12,747 million of customer deposits in fiscal 2026; Sandisk’s deals carry $16.5 billion of guarantees.

MOST OF THE BITS ARE SPOKEN FOR Sandisk expects long-term deals to cover more than 50% of its fiscal 2027 bits and approximately 2/3 of fiscal 2028.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The AI Memory Chokepoint.

The framework puts it this way: “Memory is becoming the new compute. HBM growth is outpacing accelerator demand, making memory the rate-limiting factor in the AI scaling equation.”

As we read it, multi-year contracts and customer deposits are how buyers respond to a rate-limiting input: they lock in volume before it runs out. The framework was published in December 2025 and does not discuss these agreements.

What Is Not Established

These figures use different measures and dates and are not strictly comparable. Micron’s annual report says its remaining performance obligations “are based on expected purchases to satisfy committed volumes and minimum pricing and are not expected to be indicative of future revenue under these contracts.” Sandisk’s $93.9 billion assumes floor pricing. SK hynix and Samsung give no dollar value for their agreements in the release and report we read; TheElec reported that SK Group announced on 25 July a plan for long-term supply of advanced memory with Nvidia and other companies “valued at $750 billion over the next five years”, a group-level figure we have not added to the total.

Micron and Sandisk do not name their customers in the documents we read; TheElec names Nvidia among SK hynix’s key AI customers. Sandisk’s annual report warns that customers could fail to perform their purchase obligations and that financial guarantees “may not fully offset such lost revenue”. The roughly $225 billion total is our arithmetic.

The Bottom Line

Micron and Sandisk report about $225 billion of memory sales under contract, by our arithmetic from their filings and calls, against Micron’s “not material” a year earlier. SK hynix says it has long-term agreements with around 10 customers, and CNBC reports Samsung has agreements with its top five global data center customers.