Meta’s Muse shopping agent bought at 74% of the stores on Forter’s network that received any agentic order between 1 August and 7 October, against 24% for OpenAI’s ChatGPT Instant Checkout, according to Forter’s agent order data. That is about 3.1 times the reach, by our arithmetic. Across all agents, Forter says agentic orders are now 7.2x their level in the first week of August.
Forter published the data on 2 November, covering orders from 23 July to 29 October. David Pawlan, who lists growth at Merit Systems in his X profile, summarised it on X on 12 November, opening with “Agentic commerce is not a good experience today” and arguing that the trend is moving in the right direction.
Business Pill · Agentic Commerce Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on agentic commerce, when the shopper is an AI agent. It teaches the concept and does not discuss Forter’s data.
The key insight: As we read Forter’s data, the agents that drive a store’s own checkout pages reached far more stores than the protocol checkouts did: Muse bought at 74% of stores with any agentic order against 24% for OpenAI’s Instant Checkout, about 3.1 times the reach by our arithmetic, and scraping agents rose from 1% to 77% of agentic orders.
Before Muse, OpenAI dominated. Forter says that throughout August OpenAI placed 80% to 92% of agentic orders every week. From August to September orders grew 24% month over month, or 48% including Instinct and Grok Bot, whose first orders Forter detected on 1 September.
Forter began detecting Muse orders on 21 September. That week, agentic orders were up 229% month over month, and in its first week of detection Muse accounted for more than half of agentic orders. Forter says that within its first 39 days Muse placed 7.3x as many orders as Google did in 13 weeks.
Forter says “Muse’s growth has been additive, rather than coming at the expense of other agents”: orders from OpenAI, Google and ChatGPT Agent are up 4% month over month. In the week of 23 to 29 October, Forter’s chart puts Muse at 49% of agentic orders and 46% of spend, Grok at 21% of both, and OpenAI at 19% of orders and 21% of spend.
Share of stores with any agentic order that each agent bought at, 1 August to 7 October 2026, from Forter’s network as published in Forter’s blog on 2 November 2026. Muse and Instinct, ChatGPT Agent and Grok are scraping agents; OpenAI (ChatGPT Instant Checkout) and Google check out through commerce protocols. 3.1x (74/24) is our arithmetic.
What Was Posted on X
Agentic commerce is not a good experience today.
However, people seem to mistake the early days of agentic commerce for the failure of the industry as a whole.
In reality, things are moving in the right direction.
@ForterGlobal published some incredible data that highlights where agentic commerce stands today:
1/ There is clear demand
Agentic orders are up 7.2x since the first week of August, and Muse placed more than half of all agentic orders in its first week.
Even before Muse, agentic orders grew 24% from August to September, or 48% once you count Instinct & Grok Bot, which first showed up Sept 1.
If users are naturally pushing agentic orders in the first week of Muse’s launch, before any of Muse’s widespread ads, then you know it’s an inherent behavior that users are interested in.
Muse didn’t steal orders from other agents. After it launched, orders from OpenAI, Google and ChatGPT kept growing, up 4% month over month.
Muse brought in net-new demand.
3/ Browser automation drove the explosion
Browser automation, especially before companies started cracking down on bot detection, allowed these agents to shop freely.
Muse alone bought at 74% of all stores that got any agentic orders. Instinct followed behind at 50% coverage.
Many sites are blocking agents, so I am putting together my own report that tests 20+ agents on sites like Macy’s, Target, Nike, Dick’s and Amazon. I’ll release that report soon 🙂
4/ Protocol agents reach minimal stores
OpenAI’s checkout protocol reached only 24% of stores, and Google just 5%.
The issue with protocols is that they are bound to the merchants that have implemented said protocol. Relying on the store to integrate is a proven friction point for scaling agentic commerce.
5/ Agentic commerce is built for multi-item checkout
The average agentic order is $227 and reflects a lean towards multi-item checkouts.
Muse had an average order size of $213 and Instinct hit $239. Google averages only $100, since it only supports single-item checkout.
Of all agentic orders, only 27% are under $50, again pointing towards multi-item carts as the dominant use case.
6/ Travel still dominates
Travel hit $536 per order, over 2x the next category, which is physical goods at $235.
We’re still early, and I question whether the average American will use agents for travel like the early adopters do, but for now, the data holds true.
7/ North America is 86% of agentic orders
Agentic commerce volume is almost all North America so far, which leaves a massive opportunity for all other geographic markets.
Agentic commerce is just getting started, and given some of this early traction in just the first few months, it feels like we’re positioned for a wild ride.
David Pawlan, who lists growth at Merit Systems in his X profile, posted this summary of Forter’s agentic-order data at 20:39 UTC on 12 November. It is his reading of Forter’s 2 November blog post; this piece takes every figure from Forter’s own page and charts, and quotes Pawlan only for his own views, including that relying on stores to integrate protocols is a friction point.
Why Scraping Agents Reach More Stores
Forter splits agents into two kinds. Protocol agents, OpenAI’s Instant Checkout and Google, check out through commerce protocols. Scraping agents, Muse, Instinct, Grok Bot and ChatGPT Agent, drive the merchant’s own checkout pages. Scraping agents made up 1% of agentic orders in late July and 77% in the week of 19 October, Forter says.
Forter’s explanation is reach: “They can shop anywhere, while the protocols can only reach those stores that have integrated them.” Its chart of the share of stores each agent bought at, 1 August to 7 October, reads Muse 74%, Instinct 50%, ChatGPT Agent 45%, Grok 41%, OpenAI 24% and Google 5%.
By our arithmetic, Muse’s 74% is about 3.1 times OpenAI’s 24%, even though Forter first detected Muse on 21 September, seven weeks into that window. Our agentic commerce explainer sets out how the protocol route works.
What Merchants and Banks Cannot See
The reach comes with a blind spot. Forter says protocol agents hand the merchant structured, verified order data, while scraping agents look like a shopper clicking through the site: “Merchants cannot easily tell a legitimate agent from a bot, and cannot see who the real buyer is.”
The payment side is moving too. On 13 November The Wall Street Journal ran a story headlined “AI Bots Are Using Credit Cards. Banks Are Racing to Keep Up.” We have read only the headline. Our earlier piece on Mastercard Agent Pay covers one card network’s route.
Order Sizes and What Pawlan Reads Into It
Forter puts the average agentic order at $227 from 1 August to 29 October. Its chart shows Muse at $216, Instinct at $240, Grok at $253, OpenAI at $243 and Google at $100; Forter says Google only supports a single-item checkout. Only 27% of agentic orders are $50 or less.
Pawlan’s reading is that protocols carry a built-in limit: “Relying on the store to integrate is a proven friction point for scaling agentic commerce.” He also wrote that many sites are blocking agents and that he is preparing his own report testing more than 20 agents on retail sites. That is his view, not Forter’s.
The Structural Read
As we read the order mix, Muse did not shrink the protocol channels: Forter says orders from OpenAI, Google and ChatGPT Agent kept growing 4% month over month after Muse arrived, while OpenAI’s weekly share fell from 80% to 92% in August to 19% in the week of 23 to 29 October.
As we read Forter’s caveat, the reach and the blind spot are the same mechanism: an agent that clicks through a store’s pages needs no integration, and for the same reason the merchant cannot easily tell it from a bot or see the real buyer.
Forter, AI Agent Order Data, 2 November 2026
“They can shop anywhere, while the protocols can only reach those stores that have integrated them.”
Three Implications
FOR MERCHANTS Forter says scraping agents look like a shopper clicking through the site, and merchants cannot easily tell a legitimate agent from a bot.
FOR OPENAI AND GOOGLE On Forter’s chart their protocol checkouts reached 24% and 5% of stores with any agentic order, 1 August to 7 October.
FOR META Muse placed 49% of agentic orders in the week of 23 to 29 October, Forter’s chart shows, and 46% of spend.
The framework says: “The surface, not the model, governs autonomy.”
As we read it, Forter’s store-reach chart is that idea applied to shopping: the agent that controls a browser surface reached more stores than the checkout protocols merchants must integrate. The framework predates Forter’s data and does not discuss Muse.
Milestones from Forter’s blog post of 2 November 2026 on its network’s agentic orders: OpenAI’s weekly share in August, Muse’s first detection on 21 September, scraping agents’ share in the week of 19 October and the 7.2x multiple of the 1 to 7 August average. Forter says detection dates may be later than the dates agents started placing orders.
What Is Not Established
The figures cover Forter’s network only, not the whole market, and Forter gives order growth as multiples and shares rather than order counts. Forter says its detection dates may be later than the dates agents actually started placing orders. Pawlan’s post also gives category, regional and per-agent figures that do not match or do not appear on the Forter page we read, so we use Forter’s own numbers.
Meta, OpenAI and Google have not commented on Forter’s data in anything we read. We did not contact them or Forter for this piece. Meta’s latest Muse feature, phone calls to businesses, came after Forter’s data window.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
On Forter’s network, Meta’s Muse bought at 74% of stores with any agentic order against 24% for OpenAI’s Instant Checkout, about 3.1 times the reach by our arithmetic, and agentic orders reached 7.2x their early-August level. Forter says merchants cannot easily tell a legitimate scraping agent from a bot.
A note on sourcing. We read Forter’s blog post “AI Agent Order Data: Agentic Commerce on Forter’s Network” (published and last updated 2 November 2026; data from 23 July to 29 October 2026) in full, and took per-agent values from the charts in the same post. We read David Pawlan’s post on X of 12 November 2026 in full and quote it as his view.
The Wall Street Journal item is cited by its headline only. The 3.1x ratio is our arithmetic. We did not contact Forter, Meta, OpenAI or Google for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
