Meta Sheds About $124B in a Day as 13 Brokers Lift Targets

Shares of Meta Platforms closed down about 7% on 22 October 2026, at $648.85 against $697.52 the day before (Nasdaq and Yahoo Finance data), as investors weighed its fast-growing AI agent business against the cost of funding its AI expansion. By our arithmetic, that took about $124 billion off Meta’s market value. Before the open, Reuters had reported a fall of about 3% that, if it held, was set to erase about $50 billion.

Analysts moved the other way. At least 13 brokerages raised their price targets on the stock after the results, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Of the ten target changes listed by Stocktwits, seven were raised and three were lowered, on our count.

Business Pill · CAPEX AND DEPRECIATION

A short Business Engineer explainer on capex and depreciation: why chip lifetimes drive AI profits. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about Meta or any analyst in this piece.

What Was Reported

Reuters wrote that the downbeat reaction came even though Meta reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue, forecast fourth-quarter sales above Wall Street estimates and highlighted rapid adoption of Muse, its new AI agent app. Before the drop, the stock had gained more than 5% this year, according to Reuters.

The cost side is large. Reuters noted Meta expects annual capital expenditure of $135 billion to $145 billion, and reported a free cash flow deficit of $2.12 billion in the third quarter, against positive free cash flow a year earlier. Capital expenditure is money spent on long-lived assets such as data centres and servers.

Reuters also pointed to two other weights. A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay a $25 billion penalty in a data-privacy case linked to Cambridge Analytica, and Meta said it plans to appeal. Meta also announced a new class of non-voting Class C shares, which Reuters said gives it more flexibility for acquisitions and employee pay while keeping Mark Zuckerberg’s voting control.

A separate Reuters markets report said the non-voting stock plan “revived concern over its mounting capital commitments.” It added that shares in Tesla, which also reported and cut its spending forecast, dropped nearly 4% in the premarket.

What Was Posted on X

FirstSquawk posted at 13:32 UTC that Meta shares dropped 5.4%, the most intraday since 30 July. It is the intraday figure our Update uses to size the regular-session move against Reuters’ premarket estimate of about $50 billion.

The Table: Ten Price Targets After the Results

A price target is the share price an analyst expects in about a year. The table lists the changes Stocktwits compiled on 22 October. Pivotal Research and Cantor Fitzgerald also raised their targets, according to Dow Jones headlines.

The average across 57 analysts rose from $816.98 to $825.58, FactSet data on TradingView shows, about 18% above the 21 October close. That data counts 62 Buy ratings, 6 Holds and 1 Sell among 69 covering analysts.

What Analysts Said

Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black said Meta’s AI investments were producing stronger advertising performance and engagement, Reuters reported, as investors increasingly view computing infrastructure as a revenue-generating asset rather than a cost burden.

Barclays called Muse a “game changer” for Meta’s investment narrative, and Citi said Meta was entering an “AI product super-cycle”, according to Stocktwits. JPMorgan said Meta’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance was $1 billion above its expectations at the high end.

The concerns were about funding. TD Cowen expects Meta to issue equity or debt to finance its AI infrastructure over the coming years, Stocktwits reported. Wells Fargo flagged uncertainty around capital raising and Meta’s 2027 spending, and Piper Sandler raised its 2027 expense and capital expenditure forecasts.

In a Dow Jones Market Talk, Quilter Cheviot’s Ben Barringer wrote that Meta’s capital-expenditure plans failed to soothe investors worried the AI boom is slowing. He added that some investors might have expected another big increase.

The Structural Read

As we read it, the analysts are pricing the revenue and the market is pricing the bill. Reuters wrote that investors weighed the fast-growing AI agent business against “the mounting costs of funding its ambitious AI expansion.”

As we read it, the funding question is now explicit. Reuters reported a third-quarter free cash flow deficit of $2.12 billion, and TD Cowen expects Meta to issue equity or debt to finance its AI infrastructure, according to Stocktwits.

As we read it, the three lowered targets carry the same message as the raised ones: Wells Fargo, TD Cowen and Piper Sandler still rate the stock Overweight or Buy, according to Stocktwits.

Three Implications

FOR SHAREHOLDERS Reuters said the new non-voting stock plan revived concern over Meta’s mounting capital commitments, a funding question that sits next to the capex figures.

FOR ANALYSTS Wells Fargo flagged uncertainty around capital raising and Meta’s 2027 spending, and Piper Sandler raised its 2027 expense and capex forecasts, Stocktwits reported.

FOR THE OTHER HYPERSCALERS As we read it, Meta reported first among the AI hyperscalers, according to Reuters, so its reception is the first market read on AI spending this earnings season.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The AI Capex Map.

The framework sets out to map the financing of AI: “How the money flows, where it cracks, what it buys, who can absorb it, and what happens when revenue can’t catch up.”

As we read it, Meta’s reception tests the “who can absorb it” question: capex above operating cash in the quarter, and a new share class to fund what comes next. The framework was published in May 2026 and does not discuss these results.

What Is Not Established

Reuters’ $50 billion was an estimate made before regular trading opened; the close was larger. The $124 billion is our arithmetic from the closing price and the share count on Meta’s 10-Q cover, and data providers may use a different share count for market value. The Reuters story cites at least 13 raised targets but does not list them, and the Stocktwits table covers ten firms only. Meta had not commented on the share move in the sources we read.

Connecting the Coverage

We broke down the results in our Q3 explainer, where capital expenditure of $34.91 billion topped the $32.79 billion of cash from operations. Our piece on the nonvoting stock covers the new Class C shares, and our piece on Meta’s commitments covers the $454.52 billion it has locked in. Muse passing 10 million users is in our Muse piece.

The Bottom Line

As we read it, the market and the analysts split on the same numbers. Meta shares closed down about 7%, about $124 billion of value by our arithmetic, while at least 13 brokerages lifted their targets.