Retail prices of existing smartphones in India rose 21% on average in 2026, the largest increase of any market, according to Counterpoint Research’s Global Smartphone Price Increase Tracker (Counterpoint, September 3). Asia Pacific followed at 19% and the Middle East & Africa at 18%, against 5% in the US.
Counterpoint ties the increases to memory. Its research director Tarun Pathak said that “Memory has become a key driver of smartphone BoM costs, resetting pricing across the industry and leaving OEMs with limited room to absorb higher costs”.
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The key insight: Counterpoint Research says existing smartphone retail prices in India rose 21% in 2026 as of September 3, the most of any market it tracks, against 15% globally and 5% in the US, as manufacturers passed on higher memory costs.
Counterpoint says global existing smartphone retail prices have risen 15% on average so far in 2026, with some models nearly doubling, as manufacturers passed higher memory and component costs to consumers. It says over 40% of smartphone models saw price hikes, “a first for the industry”, and that new launches were 25% costlier than year-ago variants. The tracker draws on a repository of more than 4,000 active models.
By market, Counterpoint lists India at 21%, Asia Pacific at 19%, the Middle East & Africa at 18%, Latin America at 16%, China at 10%, Europe at 7% and the US at 5%. It says price-sensitive markets faced the largest increases because low- and mid-end phones make up much of their volume, and that in the US many buyers spread device costs across postpaid plans. It also notes that memory prices “have risen fourfold since Q4 2025”, and that Apple has held iPhone prices steady.
Counterpoint Research says existing smartphone retail prices rose 15% on average globally in 2026 as of its September 3 release, led by India at 21%, Asia Pacific at 19% and the Middle East and Africa at 18%, with the US at 5%. The index, with the start of 2026 set to 100, is our arithmetic from Counterpoint’s percentages.
Where the Increases Landed in India
In a separate India release on September 29 (Counterpoint), Counterpoint said smartphone prices in India rose 16% on average in the first half of 2026 and that India’s average selling price reached a record $318 in Q2 2026. It said AI data centres have been soaking up DRAM and NAND supply and that a weaker rupee raised the cost of imported components. Counterpoint states that release is based on a white paper it developed in collaboration with OnePlus.
The same release says phones priced below INR 10,000 saw the sharpest hikes, around 32% on average, because memory makes up a much bigger share of their build cost. Shipments in that segment fell 65% year on year in the first half, and the INR 10,000-15,000 band dropped 20%, while phones above INR 20,000 kept growing.
Shipments Fell in the Third Quarter
Counterpoint’s Q3 tracker (October 22) says India’s smartphone shipments fell 20% year on year in July to September 2026, to their lowest level in a decade, and that shipments below INR 20,000 declined 47%. Counterpoint expects the Indian market to shrink by around 13% in 2026 and says manufacturers are expected to raise prices again after the festive season sale.
By our arithmetic, India’s 21% increase is 4.2 times the 5% increase Counterpoint reports for the US. The 32% average hike on phones below INR 10,000 is twice the 16% first-half average for the Indian market. The two India figures measure different things: the 21% is the tracker’s 2026 change for existing models as of September 3, and the 16% is the first-half average hike in the separate India release.
The Structural Read
As we read Counterpoint’s figures, the increases were steepest where phones are cheapest: price-sensitive markets led, and in India phones below INR 10,000 saw hikes of around 32%.
As we read the India releases, volume moved with price: Counterpoint says shipments below INR 10,000 fell 65% in the first half and the whole market fell 20% in the third quarter.
As we read the tracker, premium-heavy markets were affected less, with the US at 5%; Counterpoint attributes that partly to postpaid plans spreading device costs.
Tarun Pathak, research director, Counterpoint Research
“Memory has become a key driver of smartphone BoM costs, resetting pricing across the industry and leaving OEMs with limited room to absorb higher costs”
Three Implications
FOR PHONE MAKERS Counterpoint says manufacturers are optimising specifications to manage costs, including lower storage, reduced camera configurations and more 4G models.
FOR BUYERS IN INDIA Counterpoint says manufacturers are expected to raise prices again after the festive season sale.
FOR MEMORY SUPPLIERS Counterpoint says memory prices have risen fourfold since Q4 2025 and, in its India release, that they are unlikely to come down before 2028.
The analysis says: “Memory is becoming the new compute.”
As we read it, Counterpoint’s data shows the consumer side of that shift: Counterpoint says AI data centres have been soaking up DRAM and NAND supply, and budget phones in India carried the steepest price increases. The analysis does not discuss smartphone prices or India.
What Is Not Established
Counterpoint does not publish the model-level data behind these averages, and we could not check them independently. The India first-half release was produced with OnePlus, a company it discusses. The figures are averages; individual models, brands and channels moved differently. This piece makes no forecast of prices or shipments.
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Counterpoint’s data shows smartphone prices rising fastest where phones are cheapest: India led at 21% in 2026, and the steepest hikes there fell on phones below INR 10,000, whose shipments fell 65% in the first half. Counterpoint ties the increases to memory costs, saying AI data centres have been soaking up DRAM and NAND supply.
A note on sourcing. Figures and quotations are from Counterpoint Research releases of September 3, September 29 and October 22, 2026; the September 29 India release is based on a white paper Counterpoint developed with OnePlus. The ratios and the chart index are our arithmetic. This piece is not investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
