Goldman Sachs strategists see the S&P 500 at 8,700 points in the next 12 months, Bloomberg reported on 13 November. That is 14.6% above the index’s 12 November close of 7,592.40, by our arithmetic on Yahoo Finance data. Bloomberg wrote that the team led by Peter Oppenheimer is overweight the US and Japan for next year.
The 8,700 level is not new. Goldman’s US Equity Views note of 17 September, by Ben Snider and four colleagues, gave a “12-month S&P 500 return forecast of +14% (to 8,700)”. The index closed at 7,637.76 that day; at the 12 November close it was 0.6% lower, by our arithmetic.
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The key insight: Goldman’s 8,700 level is 14.6% above the S&P 500’s 12 November close, by our arithmetic on Yahoo Finance data, and it is the same level the bank’s strategists gave on 17 September, when the index closed at 7,637.76.
Bloomberg described the strategists as “predicting the S&P 500 will advance 14% over the coming year after a selloff in the biggest technology companies left their valuations historically cheap”. The note to clients said the team sees the index reaching 8,700 “even as they expect earnings growth for the benchmark to slow sharply”, Bloomberg reported. Bloomberg put the index up 11% so far in 2026; on Yahoo Finance data, the 12 November close was 10.9% above the 2025 year-end close of 6,845.50.
We read the opening paragraphs of the Bloomberg article, not the 13 November client note. The text we read gives no forward price-to-earnings figure for any single hyperscaler.
S&P 500 daily closes over the past year (Yahoo Finance data) against the 8,700 level Goldman Sachs strategists gave on 17 September and that Bloomberg reported on 13 November. The 14.6% gap to the 12 November close is our arithmetic.
The Selloff in the Hyperscalers’ Shares
On Yahoo Finance closes to 12 November: Alphabet closed 25.8% below its 13 May closing high; Meta closed 19.8% below its 24 September closing high; Microsoft closed 5.9% below its 4 November closing high; Amazon closed 5.8% below its 3 August closing high. Those are falls from each stock’s highest close in the past year, by our arithmetic.
Nvidia closed 30.5% below its 6 October closing high. Our 12 November update put Nvidia at 10.6 times next year’s earnings at $166.19, by our arithmetic on Nasdaq consensus. The S&P 500 itself closed 2.9% below its 6 October closing high of 7,818.93, the highest in the past year; 8,700 is 11.3% above that close.
Four hyperscalers and Nvidia: the 12 November close against each stock’s highest close in the past year (Yahoo Finance data). The changes are our arithmetic.
The September Note’s Earnings Arithmetic
In September, Goldman forecast S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 11% in both 2027, to $415, and 2028, to $460, and called the path one where growth will “decelerate, not collapse”. The note said its 8,700 forecast “reflects the view that earnings growth, rather than expanding valuations, will remain the primary driver of the bull market”. At 8,700, the index would trade at 21.0 times that $415 forecast, by our arithmetic; the note put the forward multiple at 19x on 17 September.
The note said the mega-cap US hyperscalers were on track to spend $800 billion on capex this year, an increase of 94% versus 2025. Goldman’s equity analysts expected hyperscaler capex of $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion in 2028. The note estimated that a $250 billion surprise in 2027 hyperscaler capex, in either direction, would shift S&P 500 earnings growth by about 6 percentage points.
It also estimated that capex would need to fall by roughly 30%, to $570 billion, to offset earnings growth for the rest of the index in 2027.
As we read the September note against Bloomberg’s report and the price data, the index closed 0.6% below its 17 September level while Alphabet and Meta closed 25.8% and 19.8% below their highest closes of the past year. The level held while the biggest hyperscalers fell. The September note put the weight on earnings: 8,700 is 21.0 times its $415 forecast for 2027, by our arithmetic.
Goldman Sachs US Equity Views, 17 Sep 2026
“Our 12-month S&P 500 return forecast of +14% (to 8,700) reflects the view that earnings growth, rather than expanding valuations, will remain the primary driver of the bull market”
Three Implications
FOR INDEX INVESTORS The 8,700 level implies a 14.6% rise from the 12 November close, by our arithmetic; the September note tied it to earnings growth, not a higher multiple.
FOR HYPERSCALER CAPEX Goldman’s equity analysts expected $1.2 trillion of hyperscaler capex in 2027, and the September note said a $250 billion surprise either way would move S&P 500 earnings growth by about 6 percentage points.
FOR THE EARNINGS BASE The September note said fully expensing capex would cut consensus 2027 S&P 500 earnings per share by 22%.
The framework argues: “It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing — and the financial architecture is starting to invert.”
As we read it, Goldman’s September note puts that financing question inside the index: hyperscaler capex of $1.2 trillion in 2027 in its analysts’ base case is one of the inputs behind the 8,700 level. The framework predates both notes and does not discuss Goldman’s forecasts.
What Is Not Established
We did not read the 13 November note. We do not know which valuation figures it gives for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon or Meta, whether the $415 earnings forecast still stands, or how its capex assumptions compare with September’s. The reading that the selloff left the biggest technology companies cheap is Goldman’s, as Bloomberg reported it. A 12-month forecast is a forecast, not an outcome.
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Goldman sees the S&P 500 at 8,700 in the next 12 months, Bloomberg reported, 14.6% above the 12 November close by our arithmetic and the same level its strategists set in September. The September note tied that path to earnings growth, not higher valuations, with hyperscaler capex of $1.2 trillion in 2027 in its analysts’ base case.
A note on sourcing. We read the opening paragraphs of Bloomberg’s 13 November article, not Goldman’s 13 November client note. We read Goldman’s 17 September US Equity Views note in full from its public PDF. Index and stock closes are Yahoo Finance data, fetched on 13 November 2026. The percentage gaps, the drawdowns from each stock’s highest close in the past year and the 21.0 times multiple are our arithmetic. The reading that the biggest technology companies are cheap is Goldman’s, as Bloomberg reported it. We did not contact Goldman Sachs.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
