Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett say the US midterm results mark peak AI equity concentration and favour tech bonds over tech stocks, Investing.com reported on 6 November in its summary of the bank’s weekly note.
In the same note’s flow data, tech funds took in $9.8 billion in the week to 4 November and $44.6 billion over four weeks, the most since July, Investing.com reports. By our arithmetic, that four-week figure is 16.8% of the record $265.6 billion that global equity funds drew over the same four weeks (44.6 / 265.6 = 0.168).
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The key insight: Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett say the US midterm results mark peak AI equity concentration and favour tech bonds over tech stocks, Investing.com reports. The same note’s flow data show tech funds took in $44.6 billion over four weeks, 16.8% of global equity funds’ record $265.6 billion by our arithmetic, while money market funds drew $140.4 billion in a single week.
The strategists said the midterms ended one of the last bull convictions, that there would be no Democratic sweep, according to Investing.com. They said the result signals a “shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism”, with taxes and regulation set to rise.
Policies to improve affordability could challenge the consumer and AI capex booms, and President Trump loses political capital to steer resources toward the AI race with China, the strategists said, Investing.com reports. The summary says voters want cheaper living costs, an end to war and slower data center growth.
The midterms favour gold over oil, tech bonds over tech stocks, consumer over energy stocks and small caps over monopolies, the strategists noted, according to the same summary. They also favour Europe and China tech.
Hartnett says investors should stay risk-off until three conditions are met: the end of the central banks’ rate-hiking cycle, the 10-year US Treasury yield falling below 4.5%, and oil dropping below $80 a barrel, Investing.com reports. If November inflation and payrolls data are weak, Hartnett argues December hikes from the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan could be the last.
Fund flows in the week to 4 November 2026 from Bank of America’s weekly note, as reported by Investing.com: money market funds $140.4 billion, equity funds $89.2 billion, bond funds $11.6 billion, tech funds $9.8 billion, crypto funds minus $1.8 billion. Our arithmetic: 140.4 / 9.8 = 14.3; tech funds’ $44.6 billion over four weeks is 16.8% of global equity funds’ record $265.6 billion.
Where the Money Went
Money market funds drew $140.4 billion in the week to 4 November, bonds $11.6 billion and tech funds $9.8 billion, while crypto funds lost $1.8 billion, Investing.com reports from the note. By our arithmetic, money market inflows were about 14 times the week’s tech fund inflows (140.4 / 9.8 = 14.3).
China stocks drew $34.5 billion on “national team” buying, a record $85.9 billion over four weeks, the summary says. Treasuries saw a 19th week of inflows at $6.5 billion and investment-grade bonds a seventh at $6.2 billion.
ZeroHedge relayed the note on 8 November under the headline “Hartnett Says Blue Wave Marked "Peak AI" As Every Wall Street Bull Conviction Dies But One”. In the free part of its article, ZeroHedge says that a week earlier Hartnett had said it was time to buy hyperscaler bonds, naming tech bond “diamonds in the rough” yielding 6-8%.
The Business Lever: Bonds Over Stocks
The note favours tech bonds over tech stocks, according to Investing.com. In our hyperscaler debt piece, BofA Global data reported by MarketWatch put the spread on investment-grade AI bonds at about 148 basis points over Treasuries on 5 November, against 77 for the rest of the market.
The Structural Read
As we read the note, the strategists are separating the AI trade by instrument: they favour tech bonds over tech stocks, and they say affordability policies could challenge the AI capex boom.
As we read the flow data, money has not left tech funds: they took in $9.8 billion in the week, while money market funds took in $140.4 billion, about 14 times as much by our arithmetic.
Bank of America strategists, as quoted by Investing.com
“shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism”
Three Implications
FOR TECH STOCK HOLDERS The strategists say the midterms favour tech bonds over tech stocks and small caps over monopolies, and mark peak AI equity concentration, according to Investing.com.
FOR THE AI CAPEX BOOM Policies to improve affordability could challenge the consumer and AI capex booms, the strategists said, and voters want slower data center growth, according to the same summary.
FOR THE NUMBERS TO WATCH Hartnett sets three conditions for a return to risk-taking: the end of the rate-hiking cycle, the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.5% and oil below $80 a barrel, Investing.com reports.
The essay describes the AI Supercycle as a transformation “exhibiting the paradoxical dual character of bubble and revolution at the same time”.
As we read it, a sell-side call of peak AI equity concentration sits on the bubble side of that duality, while the same note’s preference for tech bonds keeps exposure to the buildout itself. The essay does not discuss Bank of America’s note.
What Is Not Established
We read Investing.com’s summary of the note, not Bank of America’s note itself, and ZeroHedge’s full article is for paying subscribers. The phrase peak AI equity concentration is Investing.com’s wording of the note; the summary gives no concentration figure.
The summary gives more than one figure for US equity inflows ($92.3 billion, the most since June, and a fifth week of inflows at $31.7 billion), and its $89.2 billion weekly equities figure is not split by region, so we do not compare those figures with the tech fund flows.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett say the midterms mark peak AI equity concentration and favour tech bonds over tech stocks, Investing.com reported. The note’s flow data show tech funds took in $44.6 billion over four weeks, 16.8% of the record global equity inflows by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. The Bank of America strategy views and fund-flow figures are from Investing.com’s 6 November 2026 summary of the bank’s weekly note, read in full on 8 November 2026 via Yahoo Finance; we did not read the note itself. ZeroHedge’s 8 November article was read in its free section only. Ratios are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
