Intel’s shares closed at $56.28 on November 6, down 53.2% from $120.23 on September 30, according to Nasdaq.com closing prices. At Intel’s 5,315,000,000 shares outstanding on October 23, the figure on the cover of its latest 10-Q, that is a fall in market value from about $639 billion to about $299 billion, roughly $340 billion, by our arithmetic.
Through the close on November 5, at $52.25, the drop was 56.5%. Intel “leads the S&P 500’s worst-performing stocks in Q4, plunging 56.5%”, Cointelegraph posted on X on November 7, citing Fiscal.ai. A Kalshi post the same day put it as “Intel is the worst S&P 500 stock in Q4, down 57%”.
Business Pill · Vertical Integration
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on vertical integration. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Intel, AMD or Nvidia.
The key insight: Intel closed at $56.28 on 6 November, 53.2% below its 30 September close of $120.23, after a 28.6% one-day fall on 30 October, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq.com closes. At the 5,315,000,000 shares on its latest 10-Q cover, that is roughly $340 billion of market value, by our arithmetic. Fiscal.ai ranks Intel’s 56.5% drop through 5 November as the S&P 500’s worst this quarter, per Cointelegraph.
The largest single move came on October 30, when Intel closed at $65.76, down 28.6% from $92.07 the day before, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq.com closes. October 30 was the last trading day of the month. From September 30 to October 30 the shares fell 45.3%, by our arithmetic. Barron’s reported that Intel “plunged 45% in October” and called it “October’s Worst S&P 500 Stock” in its headline.
November has added to the fall. Intel closed at $59.97 on November 2 and $52.25 on November 5, then rose 7.7% to $56.28 on November 6, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq.com closes.
Intel, AMD and Nvidia daily closing prices, indexed to 30 September 2026 = 100, to 6 November 2026: Intel 47, AMD 73, Nvidia 82. Data: Nasdaq.com historical closing prices. Our arithmetic: each close divided by the 30 September close x 100.
What Was Posted on X
JUST IN: Intel is the worst S&P 500 stock in Q4, down 57%
Kalshi posted at 15:10 UTC on 7 November: “Intel is the worst S&P 500 stock in Q4, down 57%”. The 57% is close to the 56.5% fall to the 5 November close in Nasdaq.com data; after a 7.7% rise on 6 November, the quarter-to-date fall was 53.2%, by our arithmetic.
Intel Against AMD and Nvidia
Over the same period, from the September 30 close to the November 6 close, AMD fell 26.6%, from $611.76 to $449.04, and Nvidia fell 18.3%, from $228.38 to $186.64, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq.com closes. Intel’s 53.2% drop is about twice AMD’s and nearly three times Nvidia’s, by the same arithmetic.
Our earlier piece on the two outlooks found that the bottom of AMD’s fourth-quarter revenue range, about $16.49 billion, sits $490 million above the top of Intel’s, $16.0 billion. Intel guided on October 29 to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion. Its $15.5 billion midpoint is about 6% below the $16.5 billion it reported for the third quarter, by our arithmetic in that piece. The 28.6% drop on October 30 came the next trading day.
Connecting the Coverage
Intel’s third-quarter 10-Q, filed on October 30, records a loss of $12.6 billion over the first nine months of 2026 on shares held in escrow for the U.S. Department of Commerce, as our earlier piece reported. The filing describes that loss as “related to the net change in fair value of both Escrowed Shares released and Escrowed Shares still held in escrow” and puts the liability behind it at $13.7 billion on September 26.
Chief executive Lip-Bu Tan bought 255,263 Intel shares for about $19.7 million since August, an average of $77.21 a share, according to Form 4 filings covered in our earlier piece. At the November 6 close of $56.28, those shares are 27.1% below their average cost, by our arithmetic.
As we read the closing prices, the largest single-session fall of the quarter came on 30 October, $26.31 of the $63.95 drop from 30 September to 6 November, about two-fifths by our arithmetic; it was the trading day after Intel issued fourth-quarter guidance of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion.
As we read the comparison, AMD and Nvidia also fell this quarter, by 26.6% and 18.3% by our arithmetic, but Intel’s drop is about twice AMD’s and nearly three times Nvidia’s.
As we read our earlier coverage, the bottom of AMD’s fourth-quarter guidance sits above the top of Intel’s, and Lip-Bu Tan’s purchases since August now stand 27.1% below their average cost, by our arithmetic.
Cointelegraph, citing Fiscal.ai
“Intel leads the S&P 500’s worst-performing stocks in Q4, plunging 56.5%”
Three Implications
FOR INTEL SHAREHOLDERS Intel closed at $56.28 on 6 November against $120.23 on 30 September, by Nasdaq.com closes, a 53.2% fall by our arithmetic.
FOR THE AMD COMPARISON Our earlier piece found the bottom of AMD’s fourth-quarter range, about $16.49 billion, $490 million above the top of Intel’s $16.0 billion.
FOR THE NUMBERS TO WATCH Intel’s 10-Q records a $12.6 billion nine-month loss on shares held in escrow for the U.S. Department of Commerce, which it relates to the net change in their fair value.
The essay places Intel Foundry in its foundries layer and says “Allocation power at the foundry is now more consequential than chip design itself”.
As we read it, Intel is the one company in this piece that sits in that foundry layer; the closing prices we cite do not say how investors weigh it. The essay does not discuss Intel’s share price.
What Is Not Established
The S&P 500 ranking is Fiscal.ai’s, as posted by Cointelegraph, and runs through November 5; we did not check the other 499 constituents ourselves. The market-value figures use one share count, Intel’s 5,315,000,000 shares on October 23, for both dates, so they are approximations; Intel’s share count rose during 2026. The documents we read do not give a single stated cause for the October 30 fall.
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Intel closed at $56.28 on November 6, 53.2% below its September 30 close of $120.23, after a 28.6% one-day fall on October 30, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq.com closes. At the 5,315,000,000 shares on its latest 10-Q cover, that is about $340 billion of market value, by our arithmetic. Through November 5 the drop was 56.5%, which Fiscal.ai ranks as the worst in the S&P 500 this quarter, per Cointelegraph. AMD fell 26.6% and Nvidia 18.3% over the same period.
A note on sourcing. Share prices are Nasdaq.com historical closing prices; the share count is from the cover of Intel’s 10-Q filed on 30 October 2026. The S&P 500 ranking is Fiscal.ai’s as posted by Cointelegraph, and the October figures are Barron’s, of which we read the headline and opening only. Guidance, escrowed-share and Form 4 figures are from our earlier pieces, which cite the filings. Percentage changes, market values and multiples are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
