Microsoft’s $625B Commercial Backlog: 45% from OpenAI

Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) has reached $625 billion—up 110% year-over-year—with approximately 45% attributed to its OpenAI partnership commitments.

RPO Breakdown

CFO on Diversification

“The significant remaining balance [non-OpenAI RPO] grew 28% and reflects ongoing broad customer demand. Super high confidence in it.”

— Amy Hood, CFO

OpenAI Infrastructure Independence

The partnership is evolving as OpenAI builds alternative infrastructure:

• Stargate: $500B commitment with SoftBank, Oracle, MGX
• AWS: $38B 7-year deal
• CoreWeave: $12B
• Amazon: $10B+ in talks

Microsoft’s Hedge Position

• 27% equity stake (~$135B value)
• IP rights through 2032
• Internal MAI+ model development
• Multi-vendor model strategy (Claude 4.5, Mistral, Cohere in Foundry)

The Strategic Shift

The relationship has evolved from dependency to hedged coexistence—both companies building optionality while maintaining mutual benefit.

For a deeper strategic analysis, read Microsoft In The AI Stack on The Business Engineer.