Funds Bet a Record 599,731 Contracts Against US Natural Gas

Money managers hold 599,731 short-only contracts across seven Henry Hub natural gas benchmarks, the most since records began in 2013, Bloomberg reports, as relayed by commodity trader Jack Prandelli in a post on X on 24 October 2026. Bloomberg’s 23 October headline ties the positioning to a mild winter outlook, and its chart credits the figures to the CFTC, the US futures regulator.

We checked the CFTC’s own weekly data for the main NYMEX Henry Hub contract. In the report dated 20 October 2026, money managers held 359,979 short positions and 202,570 long positions there, a net short of 157,409 contracts by our arithmetic. That contract alone is below its own peak of 505,119 shorts on 4 February 2020, so the record Bloomberg describes sits in its combined seven-contract measure.

Business Pill · POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT

A short Business Engineer explainer on power purchase agreements: a steady price for power. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about any fund or trade in this piece.

What the Positioning Data Show

The CFTC’s disaggregated report sorts traders into groups, and “managed money” is the one that holds hedge funds and other money managers. On the NYMEX contract their short positions rose by 6,287 in a week, from 353,692 in the report dated 13 October, by our arithmetic. The 359,979 shorts equal about 21% of the contract’s open interest of 1,710,685, also our arithmetic.

The other large pool is on ICE. The CFTC lists 449,116 managed-money shorts in ICE’s Henry Hub LD1 contract and 225,534 in its Henry Hub penultimate contract for the same week. Contract sizes differ between exchanges, and Bloomberg’s method for adding seven contracts together is not in what we read, so we did not try to rebuild the 599,731 total.

Since May 2020, the highest reading for the NYMEX contract before this week was 405,861 shorts on 20 February 2024, per the CFTC data. The NYMEX figure of 359,979 is below that and below the 2020 peak.

What Was Posted on X

Jack Prandelli relays Bloomberg’s report that money managers hold 599,731 short-only contracts across seven Henry Hub benchmarks, the most since records began in 2013. Prandelli adds that the bet is on a very mild winter from a “Super El Niño”, and argues the crowd is leaning the wrong way, pointing to record US LNG exports, Qatar signing for US cargoes and data-center demand; that view and those figures are Prandelli’s.

Prices and Storage

The front-month Henry Hub future closed at $2.640 per million British thermal units on 23 October, its lowest close of the month, per Yahoo Finance data. It closed at $3.618 on 2 January, so the price is down 27% this year by our arithmetic. Its September closes averaged $2.95 by our arithmetic, which matches Prandelli’s line that Henry Hub averaged under $3 that month.

The US Energy Information Administration said working gas in storage was 3,644 billion cubic feet as of 16 October, a net increase of 77 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 152 Bcf less than a year earlier and 35 Bcf above the five-year average. Prandelli writes that the build came in smaller than expected; the EIA report does not give an estimate, so that comparison is his.

The Figures

CFTC figures are from the disaggregated futures-only report. Positions are counted in each exchange’s own contract units.

What the Post Says

Prandelli writes that funds are betting on a very mild winter from what he calls a “Super El Niño”, and says he thinks “the crowd is leaning the wrong way.” He points to US LNG exports running at record levels, Qatar signing for US cargoes, and data centers adding demand all year round. He also writes that TTF and JKM, the European and Asian gas benchmarks, sit near $30. We did not check those trade and price figures against a primary; they are his.

His closing line is a view on risk, not a forecast we make: “When a trade gets this crowded, one cold week can force everyone out at once.”

Connecting the Coverage

Our gigawatt ledger piece reported Cleanview Research estimates, cited by Business Insider, that Amazon has 44 gigawatts of data center capacity under development across 16 states. Our data-center forecasts piece reported Shanu Mathew’s compilation of a median 217 GW of global data-center capacity by 2030, up from a median 83 GW in 2025. Our Germany refineries piece reported economy minister Katherina Reiche saying 30 of about 100 European refineries running in 2009 have been closed or converted.

Our Amazon Virginia piece reported S&P Global Ratings saying power constraints and public pushback could delay or constrain new data center development. What’s new here: the funds that trade US gas are positioned for weak demand this winter, per Bloomberg, while our gigawatt and forecasts pieces describe data-center capacity that forecasters expect to grow from a median 83 GW in 2025 to 217 GW by 2030.

The Structural Read

As we read it, the bet is about one season: Bloomberg’s headline links it to a mild winter outlook, and US storage is 35 Bcf above its five-year average, per the EIA.

As we read it, positioning and price have moved the same way: the front-month future is down 27% this year by our arithmetic, and NYMEX managed-money shorts rose by 6,287 in the latest week, per the CFTC data.

As we read it, the data-center story runs on a longer clock: our earlier pieces report capacity forecasts out to 2030, while a futures short is a position on the months ahead.

Three Implications

FOR GAS PRODUCERS The front-month Henry Hub future closed at $2.640 per million British thermal units on 23 October, its lowest close of the month, per Yahoo Finance data.

FOR DATA-CENTER DEVELOPERS S&P Global Ratings said power constraints and public pushback could delay or constrain new data center development, as our Amazon Virginia piece reported.

FOR TRADERS ON THE OTHER SIDE Prandelli argues the crowd is leaning the wrong way; that is his view, and the CFTC data show managed money net short 157,409 NYMEX contracts by our arithmetic.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The State of AI Data Centers.

The analysis argues that “Companies that solve the power equation will dominate the AI era; those that don’t will watch their chips sit idle.”

As we read it, the gas market is one place where that power equation is priced week to week, and the funds’ position, per Bloomberg, is a bet on weak winter demand. The analysis is about data-center power and does not discuss gas futures positioning.

What Is Not Established

We read Bloomberg’s headline and the chart attached to Prandelli’s post, not Bloomberg’s full article. We could not rebuild the 599,731 figure from the CFTC tables, because the method for combining seven contracts is not in what we read. The El Niño link comes from Prandelli’s post; Bloomberg’s headline speaks of a mild winter outlook. None of our sources puts a number on how much gas data centers will burn this winter.

The Bottom Line

Money managers hold a record 599,731 short-only contracts across seven Henry Hub benchmarks, Bloomberg reports, while the CFTC’s data for the main NYMEX contract show 359,979 shorts against 202,570 longs, below that contract’s 2020 peak.