At 16:53 UTC on 12 November, traders on Polymarket priced Ian Buck at 33.0% to be named Nvidia’s next permanent chief executive, and traders on Kalshi at 34.0%. Interim chief executive Colette Kress was at 21.5% and 20.5%, and Arm chief executive Rene Haas at 11.0% and 9.5%. These are market prices, read as implied probabilities. They are not our forecast, and Nvidia has named no candidate.
Update, 12 November, 19:20 UTC. At 23:22 UTC on 11 November, Zerohedge posted on X: “Elon please hire Jensen”. Elon Musk replied at 01:22 UTC on 12 November: “That would be an honor”. Zerohedge’s post referred to Jensen Huang, now the former Nvidia chief executive under the 12 November 8-K. SpaceX shares (Nasdaq: SPCX) opened at $137.89 on 12 November, 1.3% below the $139.75 close on 11 November, and traded at $142.14 at 19:20 UTC, up 1.7%, per Yahoo Finance data (our arithmetic).
Among the outcomes we tracked, the sharpest move since Nvidia’s 8-K was accepted at 13:52 UTC came in the one where no successor is named. Polymarket’s “Jensen Huang (No Change)” outcome, which pays if no successor is announced by the end of 2028, fell from 21.5% at 12:50 UTC to 3.5%. The board’s release says it “will consider internal and external candidates”.
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The key insight: As we read the two markets together, traders on both venues agree closely on the order, Buck then Kress then Haas, with the three at 65.4% on Polymarket and 64.0% on Kalshi, while the outcome that no successor is named by the end of 2028 fell from 21.5% to 3.5% on Polymarket after the 8-K.
Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens, so a price of 33 cents reads as a 33% implied probability. We use Polymarket’s displayed price and, for Kalshi, the midpoint of the best bid and ask, both read at 16:53 UTC. Buck, Kress and Haas add up to 65.4% on Polymarket and 64.0% on Kalshi, by our arithmetic.
Further down, Tim Cook of Apple was at 5.0% on Polymarket and 3.5% on Kalshi, and AMD chief executive Lisa Su at 2.25% and 2.5%. Kalshi also lists Apple hardware executive Johny Srouji, at 3.0%. Polymarket lists 20 active outcomes whose prices sum to 95.65%, so they do not add to exactly 100%. Kalshi lists 33, which sum to 100.0% at the midpoints.
Polymarket reports $562,337 traded in its market since it opened on 10 November, with $403,740 of liquidity and $281,571 of open interest. Kalshi reports 1,061,285 contracts traded and 798,124 open. Kress is Kalshi’s most traded name at 340,504 contracts, 32.1% of the total, and Cook is second at 260,476, or 24.5%, by our arithmetic.
Implied probability of being named Nvidia’s next permanent chief executive, as priced by traders at 16:53 UTC on 12 November 2026: Polymarket’s displayed price per outcome, with Kalshi’s bid-ask midpoint under each name (our arithmetic). Interim appointments do not count in either market. ‘All other listed names’ is the sum of the remaining outcomes’ prices, our arithmetic. Market data, not a FourWeekMBA forecast.
How Prices Moved After the 8-K
On Polymarket, Haas rose from 5.1% at 12:50 UTC to 10.95%, about 2.1 times, and Buck from 29.5% to 33.0%. Kress slipped from 23.05% to 21.45%. On Kalshi, the last Kress trade in the hour to 13:00 UTC was 31 cents, against 21 cents at 16:53 UTC; Buck went from 30 cents to 35 cents.
Both venues exclude temporary appointments. Polymarket’s rules say “Interim CEOs will not qualify.” Kalshi’s say “Interim or acting appointments do not qualify.” So the 8-K naming Kress interim chief executive settles neither market.
The price series are jumpy. Polymarket’s 10-minute history shows Kress at 59.0% at 13:50 UTC and back at 23.05% at 14:00 UTC. The Cook outcome’s history starts at 15:50 UTC, after President Trump named Cook in a Truth Social post at 15:29 UTC, at 7.0%, and stood at 5.0% at 16:53 UTC.
Inside or Outside, and By When
A separate Polymarket market on whether the successor is internal or external, created at 15:31 UTC, priced an internal pick at 52.5%, an external one at 37.0% and no new permanent chief executive at 10.0%. Only $1,307 had traded there, and the bid and ask on the last outcome were 1 and 19 cents, so those prices are thin.
Another Polymarket market asks whether Nvidia announces a successor by 31 December 2026, 49 days from the filing date. It stood at 45.0%, against 43.5% at 12:50 UTC, on $16,523 traded.
Markets on the Former Chief Executive’s Next Role
Polymarket also prices where Jensen Huang goes next. A market on a formal role at SpaceX by 31 December 2026, which counts “SpaceXAI (formerly xAI)”, was at 9.45%, up from 6.15% at 12:50 UTC, on $50,688 traded. A market on a formal role at any new company by the same date was at 14.0%, from 9.5%, and one on Anthropic or OpenAI was at 3.3% on $2,803 traded.
Those rules count employment, officer, director, formal advisory or governance roles. Investing, partnerships and informal advice do not count. Nvidia’s filing says nothing about any next role.
What the Record Says
Nvidia’s 8-K says the board accepted the resignation of Jen-Hsun Huang as president, chief executive and director on 11 November and appointed Kress interim chief executive “while the Board conducts a search for a new Chief Executive Officer”. Our profile of the interim chief executive sets out the record in the filings.
Reuters, the Financial Times, Semafor and CNBC have named six people as possible chief executives: Kress, Buck, Haas, Jeff Fisher, Srouji and Su, as our piece on the six names reported so far records. President Trump named Cook, as our piece on the President’s post reports. Nvidia’s filing names no one.
The Structural Read
As we read the prices, the 8-K changed the question traders are betting on from whether there is a change at the top to who gets the permanent job, because both venues exclude interim appointments.
As we read the volumes, the most traded names are not the highest priced: Kress and Cook account for 56.6% of Kalshi contracts traded, by our arithmetic, while Buck is priced highest.
Nvidia release attached to the 8-K, 12 November 2026
“The Board is initiating a search for a permanent Chief Executive Officer and will consider internal and external candidates.”
Three Implications
FOR NVIDIA INVESTORS Polymarket priced a successor announcement by 31 December 2026 at 45.0%; the board has given no timetable in the filing or release.
FOR READERS OF THE ODDS Thin books move prices: Polymarket’s Kress price touched 59.0% at 13:50 UTC and was 23.05% ten minutes later.
FOR OUR COVERAGE We report these prices as market data next to the record: the 8-K, the release and the six names reported by Reuters, the FT, Semafor and CNBC.
The framework describes the governance layer this way: “No longer a passive layer; an active priced variable.”
As we read it, Nvidia’s leadership is now a governance question with a live price on two venues. The framework predates the 8-K and does not discuss it.
Polymarket implied probabilities at 12:50 UTC, about an hour before Nvidia’s 8-K was accepted at 13:52 UTC, and at 16:53 UTC on 12 November 2026, from Polymarket’s 10-minute price history and market data. Four rows come from the next-CEO market; the others are separate markets on a successor named by 31 December 2026 and on a formal role for the former chief executive at SpaceX by the same date. Market prices, not forecasts.
What Is Not Established
Prediction-market prices are bets by traders with money at stake, not forecasts by us, by Nvidia or by the outlets that named candidates. Several outcomes have wide gaps between bid and ask, and small trades can move them, as the 13:50 UTC Kress print shows. The prices here are a snapshot taken at 16:53 UTC and change with each trade.
The rules differ. Polymarket says “a consensus of credible reporting may also be used” to resolve; Kalshi says an official announcement by Nvidia is sufficient and that its full NEWROLE rules govern. Polymarket figures are in dollars and Kalshi’s in contracts, so the two volumes do not compare directly. We report only markets on Nvidia’s leadership and the former chief executive’s next corporate role. We did not trade, and we did not ask Nvidia about the markets.
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Two prediction markets price Buck first, Kress second and Haas third for Nvidia’s permanent top job, with no name above 35%. After the 8-K, the outcome that no successor is named fell to 3.5% on Polymarket. Nvidia’s board says only that it is searching inside and outside the company. Our earlier piece on the after-hours fall covers the market that priced the exit itself.
A note on sourcing. Market prices, volumes, liquidity, open interest and resolution rules come from Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s public market data, read at 16:53 UTC on 12 November 2026, and Polymarket’s published 10-minute price history. Prices are what traders were paying, read as implied probabilities; they are market data, not our forecast. Kalshi midpoints, sums and shares are our arithmetic. We name only executives already named by Reuters, the Financial Times, Semafor or CNBC, or by the President, and group every other listed name. Filing facts come from Nvidia’s Form 8-K and release (SEC EDGAR, accepted 13:52 UTC). We did not trade in these markets.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
