Venture Global Discloses 5 GW AI Goal as Revenue Jumps 43%

Venture Global said on 10 November that it believes it is positioned to begin delivering compute capacity for data centers in late 2028 and to scale to approximately 5 GW by the end of 2031, in its third-quarter earnings release. The liquefied natural gas exporter reported revenue of $4,756 million, up 43% from $3,329 million a year earlier, and raised its 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion, from $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion.

Diluted earnings per share were $0.96, against an estimate of $0.49 cited by Wall St Engine. A $1,368 million gain on interest rate swaps made up 43% of the quarter’s $3,188 million of income before income tax, by our arithmetic. Without it, pre-tax income would have been $1,820 million, still 2.9 times the $637 million of a year earlier.

Business Pill · Grid Cost Allocation

A short Business Engineer explainer on who pays for new grid capacity. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Venture Global.

What the Quarter Shows

Income from operations rose 74% to $2,295 million, the release says, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, rose 69% to $2,583 million. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $2,546 million, up 493% from $429 million. Wall St Engine cited estimates of $4.69 billion for revenue and $2.53 billion for adjusted EBITDA.

The company exported 124 cargos, up from 100, and sold 465.8 TBtu of LNG, up 25%. It says the increases in net income and adjusted EBITDA were “primarily driven by higher LNG sales volumes, predominantly from the Plaquemines Project as a result of commissioning progress, and higher LNG sales prices net of the costs of feed gas”.

Plaquemines Phase 1 reached commercial operations on 31 October, and the company says it has loaded six cargos for its SPA customers since. It has contracted 99% of its available 2026 cargos at a weighted average liquefaction fee of $6.46/MMBtu. The guidance assumes $21.00 to $22.00/MMBtu for the remaining unsold cargos.

What Was Posted on X

Wall St Engine’s earnings card, posted at 11:31 UTC on 10 November: revenue $4.76B against a $4.69B estimate, EPS $0.96 against $0.49, adjusted EBITDA $2.58B, the raised 2026 guide of $10.0B-$10.3B, and the $1.37B swap gain. We checked each reported figure against Venture Global’s release and 10-Q; the estimates are the card’s, and the 43% swap share of pre-tax income is our own arithmetic.

Where the Profit Came From

Below the operating line, the statement of operations shows a $1,368 million gain on interest rate swaps, against a $144 million loss a year earlier. The 10-Q says the favourable change was “primarily due to an increase in the forward interest rate curves” during the quarter. It also says none of the company’s interest rate swaps was designated as cash flow hedges.

Net interest expense was $486 million and income tax expense $560 million. The guidance raise moves the midpoint from $8.9 billion to $10.15 billion, up $1.25 billion or 14%, by our arithmetic. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is a non-GAAP measure, and the company gives no reconciliation for the forward figure.

The AI Utility Plan

CEO Mike Sabel called it “a potential new, additive line of business for the Company”, built on the company’s island-mode power network, “to be able to offer an off-grid AI utility to support data centers”. The 10-Q defines an AI Utility as “integrated data center and power infrastructure that is capable of supporting compute capacity with no reliance on the public electric grid”.

In October Venture Global signed frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services for up to 16 new, 720 MW power island units. That is up to 11,520 MW of generation, by our arithmetic. The release lists about 4 GW of existing power, approximately 15,000 acres of controlled land and roughly 13 bcf/d of pipeline capacity.

The 10-Q says the agreements provide the potential to develop and own or lease “up to 10 GW of compute capacity through our own AI Utility”. It says the company expects to place the first purchase order for a power island by the end of 2026.

What the Risk Factors Say

The 10-Q says there have been no material changes to the risk factors in the 2025 10-K, “except as disclosed below”. All three new factors are about data centers. The second-quarter 10-Q added none, according to our risk-factor tool. The three headings, verbatim:

• “Our strategy to expand into data center development and construction may not be successful and could adversely affect our business and financial condition.”
• “The data center market is highly competitive, and our inability to compete could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.”
• “Evolving governmental regulation and opposition from environmental groups and other stakeholders, including through litigation or reputational campaigns, could delay or prevent the permitting, construction or operation of our data center and power infrastructure projects.”

The three run to 985 words, by our count. The longest, at 452 words, says the company has “limited experience developing or operating data centers”. The third says “A growing number of state and local governments have enacted, or are considering, moratoria” and other limits on new data centers or related gas-fired generation.

The Structural Read

As we read the 10-Q, the AI utility moved from an October press release into the risk factors: all three new factors are about data centers, and the second-quarter 10-Q added none.

As we read the release, the pitch rests on assets the company already runs for LNG: about 4 GW of existing power, approximately 15,000 acres of controlled land and roughly 13 bcf/d of pipeline capacity.

Three Implications

FOR INVESTORS Without the $1,368 million swap gain, pre-tax income would have been $1,820 million, by our arithmetic, still 2.9 times the $637 million of a year earlier.

FOR DATA CENTER BUYERS The release says the company is positioned to begin delivering compute capacity in late 2028; the 10-Q says the first power island purchase order is expected by the end of 2026.

FOR LNG CUSTOMERS The company says it has contracted 99% of its available 2026 cargos at a weighted average liquefaction fee of $6.46/MMBtu.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The State of AI Data Centers.

The framework argues: “The structural bottleneck isn’t computing, it’s electrons.”

As we read it, Venture Global is pitching electrons it already makes: its release describes an off-grid AI utility built on the island-mode power network that runs its LNG plants. The framework predates this filing and does not discuss Venture Global.

What Is Not Established

The release and 10-Q we read do not give a cost for the power islands or the data center build. The 10-Q says revenue from the projects depends on the company’s ability “to negotiate and enter into binding, long-term agreements with a limited number of potential customers” for its data center capacity. The estimates are as cited by Wall St Engine; we did not see the underlying consensus.

The Bottom Line

Venture Global grew third-quarter revenue 43% and raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion. A $1,368 million swap gain was 43% of pre-tax income, by our arithmetic. The company also set out a path to about 5 GW of compute capacity by the end of 2031 and added three data center risk factors to its 10-Q.