SpaceX’s AI data centre campus on the Memphis–Mississippi line will go from 0.4 gigawatts of IT capacity in January to 2.4 gigawatts by the end of 2026, the research firm SemiAnalysis said in an X thread on 14 November, citing its own estimates. That is six times January’s size, a 2.0-gigawatt addition in one year, by our arithmetic.
The growth runs across five sites the firm names as Macrohard, MiniHard, Macroharder, Project SPAM and Gun Range. “Stargate Abilene is impressive. Colossus 2 is adding nearly two of them in under a year”, the thread opens.
Business Pill · Switching Costs Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on switching costs: why it is hard to leave an AI supplier. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss SpaceX’s data centres.
The key insight: As we read SemiAnalysis’s figures, speed of construction has run ahead of power supply: the campus is estimated to add 2.0 gigawatts in a year, while the firm puts the possible power shortfall at upwards of 300 megawatts.
SemiAnalysis wrote that “While most are fighting for 8-12 month build times, SpaceX has cut them in half”. It says MiniHard finished construction in about five months and that the new Gun Range plot, just south of the state line, will take about four.
The firm counts Colossus 1’s first retrofit at 122 days for 150 megawatts and Colossus 2 at 91 days for 210 megawatts. That is 1.23 megawatts a day against 2.31, nearly twice the pace, by our arithmetic. Project SPAM, it says, started on 5 October and targets its first tranches in December. Musk has said Colossus 2 will hold 1.2 million Blackwells by year-end.
IT capacity at SpaceX’s Memphis–Mississippi campus, January 2026 and year-end 2026, as estimated by SemiAnalysis in its 14 November 2026 thread. The multiple is our arithmetic.
The Power Gap
The open question is power. In its 3 November newsletter, SemiAnalysis wrote that the region’s utility, TVA, lists service requests for Macrohard (700MW) and MiniHard (450MW), or 1,150 megawatts together by our arithmetic. The firm assumes a grid connection of about 1.2 gigawatts covers both.
The Southaven turbines face a limit: the site “can legally operate 2.7GW nameplate right now, but only 1.24GW nameplate by July 2027”, the newsletter says, 54% lower by our arithmetic. That leaves about 1.3 gigawatts of compute on 1.24 gigawatts of nameplate gas, and SemiAnalysis says “the gap could be upwards of 300MW”. The site’s gas turbines are also the subject of a NAACP lawsuit a judge let proceed.
SemiAnalysis’s Battery Answer
SemiAnalysis’s answer is storage. “We count 1,377 Megapacks across Colossus 2, nearly 6GWh”, the thread says, calling it the largest battery field in the US. The firm argues gas and batteries can be run together to raise baseload while the turbines charge them, and that with a power usage effectiveness of about 1.10 to 1.15 “the site may still cover a ~300MW shortfall”.
As we read the thread, the build pace is the story: by SemiAnalysis’s counts, Colossus 2 went up at 2.31 megawatts a day against 1.23 for Colossus 1’s first retrofit, by our arithmetic.
As we read the newsletter, the binding date is July 2027, when the Southaven turbine limit drops from 2.7 to 1.24 gigawatts of nameplate, and the firm says batteries may cover the gap only if its IT assumptions are correct.
SemiAnalysis, X thread, 14 November 2026
“Our answer: SpaceX built the largest BESS field in the USA for a reason.”
Three Implications
FOR DATA CENTRE BUILDERS SemiAnalysis says most builders face 8 to 12 month build times while SpaceX has cut them in half.
FOR UTILITIES TVA lists service requests for Macrohard (700MW) and MiniHard (450MW), per the newsletter, 1,150 megawatts by our arithmetic.
FOR BATTERY SUPPLIERS SemiAnalysis counts 1,377 Megapacks across Colossus 2, nearly 6 gigawatt-hours.
The framework argues: “Companies that solve the power equation will dominate the AI era; those that don’t will watch their chips sit idle.”
As we read it, SemiAnalysis’s battery argument is SpaceX’s attempt at that equation in Memphis. The framework does not discuss SpaceX’s Memphis sites.
Build pace from SemiAnalysis’s counts: 150 megawatts in 122 days for Colossus 1’s first retrofit and 210 megawatts in 91 days for Colossus 2. Megawatts per day are our arithmetic.
What Is Not Established
The capacity, build-time, battery and power-gap figures are SemiAnalysis estimates drawn from its paid Datacenter Industry Model, satellite imagery and local filings; SpaceX has not published site-level capacity, and we did not see the firm’s underlying data. The firm itself frames the battery solution as conditional on its IT assumptions being correct.
We read SemiAnalysis’s thread and the free part of its newsletter; neither SpaceX nor TVA was contacted for this piece.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
SemiAnalysis says SpaceX’s Memphis–Mississippi campus will reach 2.4 gigawatts of IT capacity by year-end, six times January’s 0.4 gigawatts by our arithmetic, built at about twice the industry’s usual speed. The firm puts the possible power shortfall at upwards of 300 megawatts once the Southaven turbine limit falls to 1.24 gigawatts in July 2027.
A note on sourcing. Capacity, build-time, power and battery figures are SemiAnalysis estimates from its 14 November thread and the free part of its 3 November newsletter, read on 14 November 2026. SpaceX does not publish site-level capacity. Multiples, rates and totals are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
