OpenAI Cites Gemini’s 5% to 27% Rise to Defend Apple Deal

OpenAI is pressing a federal judge to throw out Elon Musk’s X Corp. antitrust claims, arguing its deal to put ChatGPT into Apple’s iPhones does not stop rival AI developers reaching consumers, PYMNTS reported on 4 November, citing MLex. OpenAI’s own summary judgment brief makes the case with numbers: it says Gemini’s web traffic share rose from 5% to 27% after the Apple integration launched, a 5.4-fold rise by our arithmetic.

The brief, filed on 22 September in the Northern District of Texas, also says xAI’s valuation went from $113 billion in July 2025 to $250 billion when it merged with SpaceX in February 2026, about 2.2 times, by our arithmetic. OpenAI’s point is that rivals grew while the deal was in force.

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Growth multiples cited in OpenAI's brief: Anthropic valuation 15.7x, Gemini web traffic share 5.4x, xAI valuation 2.2x
Growth multiples computed from figures in OpenAI’s summary judgment brief (22 September 2026): Anthropic’s reported valuation, $61.5 billion to $965 billion; Gemini’s web traffic share, 5% to 27%; xAI’s valuation, $113 billion to $250 billion. Periods differ. OpenAI’s figures in a contested motion; multiples are our arithmetic. Chart: FourWeekMBA.

The key insight: OpenAI’s summary judgment brief argues its Apple deal is non-exclusive and that rivals grew while it ran: by its figures, Gemini’s web traffic share rose from 5% to 27% and xAI’s valuation from $113 billion to $250 billion, about 5.4 and 2.2 times by our arithmetic; these are arguments in a contested motion, not findings.

What OpenAI Argues

The brief opens on the contract: “On its face, the Agreement is “non-exclusive.”” It says “nothing in the expressly nonexclusive Agreement prevents Apple from integrating other GenAI chatbots alongside ChatGPT whenever and however it chooses”.

On distribution it argues that “Apple Intelligence users are free to decline use of ChatGPT and to download or use any other chatbot through an array of other distribution channels, including the Apple App Store”. The share of the market it says the deal touches is redacted in the public version, but the brief calls it “well below the 40% threshold that courts have found to raise antitrust concerns”.

Gemini's web traffic share, 5% in the last quarter of 2024 and 27% in the second quarter of 2026, as cited in
Gemini’s web traffic share, 5% in the last quarter of 2024 and 27% in the second quarter of 2026, as cited in OpenAI’s summary judgment brief filed on 22 September 2026 in X Corp v. Apple (N.D. Tex.). These are OpenAI’s figures in a contested motion; the 5.4x multiple is our arithmetic.

The Rivals’ Numbers

OpenAI’s brief leans on how competitors fared. It says: “From the last quarter of 2024 when the integration launched to the second quarter of 2026, Gemini’s web traffic share has shot up from 5% to 27%.”

It cites Anthropic’s reported valuation growth from $61.5 billion to $965 billion between March 2025 and May 2026, about 15.7 times by our arithmetic, “all without the Siri prompts that Plaintiffs say are so critical”. On xAI it says: “The company’s valuation reportedly doubled between July 2025 and January 2026, from $113 billion to $230 billion.”

The brief also says Apple’s integration underperformed. It describes “the Apple integration persistently underperforming” by March 2026, with the details redacted.

Where the Case Stands

X Corp. and xAI, now SpaceXAI LLC, sued Apple and OpenAI in August 2025. The court docket shows the plaintiffs moved on 14 September 2026 to voluntarily dismiss their claims against Apple, leaving OpenAI. OpenAI filed for summary judgment on 22 September; the plaintiffs’ response, due by 20 October, was filed partly under seal.

PYMNTS, citing MLex, reported that X argued in a 21 October filing that the evidence could support a jury finding that the Apple-OpenAI agreement operated as an exclusionary arrangement. The brief also cites SpaceX’s IPO registration statement, which it says described the consumer AI market as having “intense competition for user attention”.

Connecting the Coverage

The brief turns SpaceX’s own IPO filing against its AI unit; we tracked how SpaceX shares closed below their $135 IPO price. Apple’s side of the economics is in how Apple’s China exposure works. OpenAI is also defending the NYT copyright case, where amicus briefs split 23-14.

The Structural Read

As we read the brief, OpenAI is arguing from outcomes as well as from the contract: the non-exclusive clause answers whether rivals were barred, and the rivals’ growth figures answer whether they were harmed.

As we read the docket, the case now runs against OpenAI alone after the plaintiffs moved to drop Apple in September, so OpenAI alone is now defending the Apple agreement in this case.

OpenAI, brief in support of its motion for summary judgment, 22 September 2026

“nothing in the expressly nonexclusive Agreement prevents Apple from integrating other GenAI chatbots alongside ChatGPT whenever and however it chooses”

Three Implications

FOR THE CASE OpenAI asks for summary judgment, a ruling without trial; the docket we read shows no ruling yet.

FOR DISTRIBUTION DEALS The brief cites a court standard that foreclosure of 40% to 50% of a market is usually required for an unlawful exclusive-dealing contract.

FOR RIVALS OpenAI cites Gemini’s web traffic share rising from 5% to 27% and Anthropic’s reported valuation rising from $61.5 billion to $965 billion.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The Agentic Harness War.

The framework says: “The platform controlling skill creation and distribution gains long-term strategic leverage.”

As we read it, the case is a fight over a distribution slot: X Corp. argues the Apple integration is that leverage, while OpenAI argues the slot is non-exclusive and that rivals reach users through the App Store and other channels. The framework does not discuss the case.

Related coverage: How Apple’s China Exposure Works: 17% of Sales, 42.9% Margin

What Is Not Established

The figures here are OpenAI’s arguments in a contested motion, not findings by the court; Judge Mark Pittman has not ruled on summary judgment in the docket we read. The share of the market OpenAI says the deal touches is redacted. OpenAI’s newest reply, reported by PYMNTS via MLex, was not available to us as a document, so its wording is not quoted here. The 5.4 times and 2.2 times multiples are our arithmetic on figures in the brief.

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Business Engineer Framework

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The Bottom Line

OpenAI asks the court to end X Corp.’s antitrust case without a trial, arguing its Apple deal is non-exclusive and that rivals thrived while it ran: by its brief, Gemini’s web traffic share rose from 5% to 27% and xAI’s valuation from $113 billion to $250 billion, increases of 5.4 and about 2.2 times by our arithmetic.

95,000+ executives read Business Engineer for the AI strategy frameworks cited by ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity.

A note on sourcing. Quotations and figures are from OpenAI’s public summary judgment brief filed on 22 September 2026, with redactions as filed; the 4 November developments are as reported by PYMNTS, citing MLex. Docket details are from CourtListener. Multiples are our arithmetic.

Sources: OpenAI brief in support of summary judgment, ECF 403, No. 4:25-cv-00914-P (N.D. Tex.), 22 Sep 2026 · CourtListener docket, X Corp v. OpenAI Inc · PYMNTS, 4 Nov 2026

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