SpaceX shares closed at $134.72 on Friday 30 October, just under the $135.00 price at which the company sold 555,555,555 shares in its June initial public offering, according to Yahoo Finance price data and the company’s final prospectus. The close was 36.3% below the stock’s record close of $211.39 on 16 June, by our arithmetic.
Measured from the intraday high of $225.64 the same day, the fall is 40.3%, by our arithmetic. That intraday measure is the basis of the 40%-from-peak figure in some reports on Monday. Friday was the stock’s first close below the IPO price since 20 August, by our count of the daily closes.
The key insight: SpaceX closed at $134.72 on 30 October, 28 cents under its $135.00 IPO price and 36.3% below its 16 June record close, by our arithmetic; it was the stock’s first close below the offer price since 20 August.
The stock closed its first day of trading, 12 June, at $160.95 and reached its record close of $211.39 two sessions later, according to the Yahoo Finance data. It then fell to a low close of $108.27 on 5 August, recovered to $171.92 on 6 October, and has drifted lower since.
From the 6 October close to Friday’s, the shares fell 21.6%, by our arithmetic. The Economic Times reported that SpaceX has lost more than $400 billion in market value since 6 October, with its valuation falling below $2 trillion.
Business Pill · Concentration
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on concentration. It explains the general idea only and does not discuss SpaceX or its shares.
SPCX daily close, 12 June to 30 October 2026, against the $135.00 IPO price. Sources: Yahoo Finance; SpaceX final prospectus (424B4). The 36.3% fall from the 16 June record close is our arithmetic.Animated: SPCX daily close from 12 June to 30 October 2026, sampled about every fourth trading day, against the $135.00 IPO price. Sources: Yahoo Finance; SpaceX 424B4 prospectus.
What the Coverage Points To
The Economic Times links the sell-off to the expiry of a major share lock-up, with restrictions on about 1.3 billion shares lifting on 22 October, and to concerns over Intel’s weak forecast, Starlink scrutiny and potential regulatory hurdles for a reported SpaceX-Tesla merger. It also reports that SpaceX “has become increasingly tied to the artificial intelligence trade.”
The same report says SpaceX shares were down about 16% from 6 October through Thursday, while most publicly traded space peers lost between 20% and 30% over the period. It names Starship Flight 15, expected next month, as the company’s next major event.
As we read the price data, the IPO price is now the line the shares trade around: the stock closed below $135 in 19 sessions in July and August, then did not close below it from 21 August until Friday.
As we read The Economic Times’ report, the reasons cited are a mix of supply and sentiment: about 1.3 billion shares freed from lock-up on 22 October, Intel’s forecast, Starlink scrutiny and the wider AI trade.
The Economic Times, on SpaceX’s shares
“has become increasingly tied to the artificial intelligence trade”
Three Implications
FOR IPO BUYERS Shares bought at the $135.00 offer price in June were 28 cents underwater at Friday’s close, by our arithmetic.
FOR HOLDERS FREED FROM LOCK-UP The Economic Times reports that restrictions on about 1.3 billion shares expired on 22 October; Friday’s close was below the IPO price at which that tranche was valued in our 22 October piece.
FOR THE AI TRADE The Economic Times reports that a broader recovery in AI shares could help lift SpaceX’s stock, and names Starship Flight 15 next month as the company’s next major event.
The framework reads: “That is the structural read, and it changes the valuation logic at every layer beneath it.”
As we read it, SpaceX now trades partly as an AI stock, as The Economic Times reports, so its price moves with that valuation logic as well as with launches and Starlink. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss SpaceX.
Monday’s trading had not opened when we checked the data. SpaceX has not commented on its share price in any filing we read. The causes listed above are those named in press coverage, not by the company, and we did not find a single stated reason for Friday’s fall.
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SpaceX closed Friday at $134.72, 28 cents under its $135.00 IPO price and 36.3% below its 16 June record close. Measured from that day’s intraday high of $225.64, the fall is 40.3%.
A note on sourcing. Prices are Yahoo Finance daily closes for SPCX; the $135.00 IPO price and share count are from SpaceX’s final prospectus filed on 12 June 2026. Percentage changes and the count of closes are our arithmetic. Reasons for the decline are as reported by The Economic Times.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
