Goldman Sachs estimated that rebalancing the Russell 1000 Growth Index using its current figures would trigger more than $10 billion in buying of SpaceX shares by passive ETFs tracking that benchmark, Seeking Alpha reported, citing a November 6 report by Goldman strategist Ben Snider and colleagues. The index’s next scheduled rebalance is December 11, according to the report.
That estimate is more than a third of the roughly $30 billion of SpaceX shares that passive ETFs held at the end of October, by our arithmetic on the report’s figures.
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The key insight: Goldman Sachs estimated that a Russell 1000 Growth rebalance on December 11 would trigger more than $10 billion of SpaceX buying by passive ETFs, Seeking Alpha reported. That is more than a third of the roughly $30 billion passive ETFs held at the end of October, by our arithmetic. About a third of SpaceX shares now trade publicly, up from 5% at the debut, according to the report.
Nearly five months after the offering, roughly a third of SpaceX shares are available for public trading, up from 5% at its debut, Snider and colleagues wrote, according to Seeking Alpha. That increase has lifted the stock’s weight in several benchmarks and expanded ownership by funds that track them.
SpaceX accounts for about 2.5% of the Nasdaq-100, its largest weighting among the major U.S. equity indexes the report examined. The Nasdaq-100 trades at 19.5 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, and excluding SpaceX that multiple would fall to 19.2 times, Goldman calculated.
Since SpaceX joined the benchmark, the Nasdaq-100 has declined 10.3%, and without the company the decline would have been 10%, the report found. The index’s 10 largest holdings account for 50% of its value either way, and its 20 largest represent 67%, compared with 64% without SpaceX.
Timeline: SpaceX listed in June 2026 with about 5% of shares tradable; a lock-up tranche of up to 1.3 billion shares became eligible after the September-quarter results (SpaceX prospectus, 12 June 2026); on 6 November Goldman Sachs put the tradable share at about a third and passive ETF holdings at about $30 billion; Goldman estimated more than $10 billion of passive buying at the 11 December Russell 1000 Growth rebalance, about half of shares tradable by mid-2027 and possible S&P 500 eligibility in the second half of 2027 (Goldman report as reported by Seeking Alpha).
The Passive Bid
Passive exchange-traded funds held roughly $30 billion of SpaceX shares at the end of October, according to the report, and about $20 billion of that was held by funds tracking the Nasdaq-100.
Goldman estimated the Russell 1000 Growth rebalance would trigger more than $10 billion in buying, the report said. It also said the mechanical effect on SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 weighting should be smaller because of that benchmark’s rules for companies with a limited public float.
ZeroHedge headlined its write-up “A $10 Billion Passive Bid Is Coming: Goldman Tracks SpaceX’s Lockup Cliff Into The Index Funds”. Its free paragraph says that if SpaceX is stripped out of the Nasdaq 100, “the index’s P/E drops from 19.5x to 19.2x”.
The Lock-Up Side
Goldman estimated that about half of SpaceX shares would become available for public trading by mid-2027 as restrictions on existing shareholders expire, Seeking Alpha reported.
SpaceX’s prospectus, filed with the SEC on June 12, 2026, set a 180-day lock-up with timed releases, and up to 1.3 billion shares, 28% of that pool, became eligible for sale after the September-quarter results, as we covered in SpaceX Lockup Frees Up to 1.3B Shares. Alphabet’s quarterly filing says $75.2 billion of its SpaceX shares are subject to short-term restrictions on the ability to sell, as we reported in $75.2B of Alphabet’s SpaceX Stake Faces Sale Restrictions.
The S&P 500 Question
SpaceX remains outside the S&P 500. Goldman said the index’s eligibility requirements point to potential inclusion in the second half of 2027, according to Seeking Alpha.
Under the rules described in the report, companies must have been publicly traded for at least 12 months and must report positive net income from continuing operations under standard accounting rules for the latest quarter and the latest four quarters combined. Based on consensus forecasts, SpaceX would meet the profitability requirement after reporting second-quarter 2027 results, the report said. A merger with an existing S&P 500 member could offer another route, and such changes are reviewed individually, leaving the timing uncertain, Goldman said.
As we read the report, index demand for SpaceX is tied to its tradable float: the report says the rising share of tradable stock has lifted SpaceX’s weight in several benchmarks.
As we read the numbers, the Nasdaq-100 effect so far is small: the report puts the index’s multiple at 19.5 times with SpaceX and 19.2 times without it.
As we read the timeline, the December 11 rebalance comes before the mid-2027 point at which Goldman estimated about half of SpaceX shares would be tradable.
ZeroHedge, on the Goldman report
“the index’s P/E drops from 19.5x to 19.2x”
Three Implications
FOR INDEX FUNDS Passive ETFs held roughly $30 billion of SpaceX shares at the end of October, about $20 billion of it in Nasdaq-100 trackers, the report said.
FOR THE FLOAT Goldman estimated about half of SpaceX shares would be tradable by mid-2027 as restrictions on existing shareholders expire, according to Seeking Alpha.
FOR THE S&P 500 Goldman said eligibility rules point to potential S&P 500 inclusion in the second half of 2027, according to the report.
The analysis says: “The job of any operator, investor, or builder is to know which layer they are operating inside and which layer the binding constraint is rotating toward next.”
As we read it, for SpaceX shareholders the timing of index events and the release of locked-up shares are part of that question. The analysis does not discuss SpaceX’s index weights.
What Is Not Established
We read Seeking Alpha’s account of the Goldman report and ZeroHedge’s free paragraph, not the Goldman report itself. The account does not give the expected change in SpaceX’s Russell weight, a dollar figure for the Nasdaq-100 effect, or the dates on which specific holders’ restrictions expire. Goldman’s $10 billion figure is an estimate based on the report’s current figures.
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Goldman estimated a Russell 1000 Growth rebalance on December 11 would trigger more than $10 billion of passive buying in SpaceX, against roughly $30 billion that passive ETFs held at the end of October, according to Seeking Alpha. About a third of SpaceX shares now trade publicly, up from 5% at the debut, and Goldman estimated about half by mid-2027, the report said.
A note on sourcing. The Goldman Sachs figures are from Seeking Alpha’s account of a 6 November 2026 Goldman report by Ben Snider and colleagues; we did not read the Goldman report itself. ZeroHedge’s headline and free paragraph are quoted as published. Lock-up details are from SpaceX’s prospectus of 12 June 2026 and Alphabet’s restricted-share figure from its Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, both as covered in our earlier pieces. The comparison of more than $10 billion with roughly $30 billion is our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
