AMD valued the warrants it has issued to OpenAI and Meta at a weighted average of $178.58 a share on 26 September, against a weighted-average grant-date fair value of $14.25, according to the Form 10-Q it filed late on 3 November. That is about 12.5 times, by our arithmetic. The 10-Q says no warrant shares had vested or become exercisable by that date.
The filing also puts the unrecognised grant-date fair value of the unvested warrants at $4.5 billion, the amount that would come off AMD’s revenue as qualifying customer sales are recognised. That is about 34% of third-quarter net revenue of $13.4 billion, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Concentration
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on concentration, when a few big pieces make the total. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss AMD.
AMD customer warrants for OpenAI and Meta as of 26 September 2026: $4.5 billion of unrecognised grant-date value still to reduce revenue, a $1.2 billion warrant liability and a $1.097 billion third-quarter fair-value loss. Source: AMD Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026. Chart: FourWeekMBA.
The key insight: AMD’s 10-Q values its OpenAI and Meta warrants at a weighted $178.58 a share on 26 September, about 12.5 times the $14.25 grant-date average by our arithmetic, with a $1.2 billion warrant liability and $4.5 billion of grant-date value still to come off revenue; no warrant shares had vested.
The 10-Q names the two holders in its risk factors: “OpenAI OpCo., LLC and Meta Platforms, Inc.”, with warrants “exercisable for up to a combined 320 million shares of our common stock”. The warrants were issued in October 2025 and February 2026, each for up to 160 million shares at an exercise price of $0.01.
On the per-share value, the 10-Q says the $178.58 was “based on the Company’s updated probability of the customers meeting the conditions required for exercisability and primarily on its closing stock price as most market conditions had been met”.
Multiplied by the 320 million maximum, $178.58 a share comes to about $57.1 billion, against about $4.6 billion at the grant-date average, by our arithmetic. AMD does not state either total.
AMD’s customer warrants for OpenAI and Meta, weighted-average fair value per share: $14.25 at grant and $178.58 on 26 September 2026. Source: AMD Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026; the 12.5x multiple is our arithmetic.
Two Accounting Lines
The warrants reach AMD’s results in two places. The grant-date value of shares probable of vesting is “recorded as a reduction to revenue proportionally as qualifying customer revenues are recorded”, with a matching liability. That liability is then remeasured each quarter, and the change goes to other income (expense).
At 26 September the warrant liability was $1.2 billion, “representing the fair value of the warrants attributable to qualifying customer revenue recorded to date”. The third-quarter change in its fair value was a loss of $1,097 million, which took other income (expense), net to an expense of $902 million.
We first reported the $1.1 billion charge from the earnings release in AMD’s first warrant charge. What the 10-Q adds is the per-share value behind it, the size of the liability and the $4.5 billion still to come off revenue.
What the Risk Factors Say
The risk factor headed “Our stock price is subject to volatility.” grew to 436 words from 268 in the second-quarter 10-Q, by our count. It now says “Changes in our stock price have resulted in substantial non-cash charges, and changes in our stock price or in these estimates may result in substantial non-cash gains or losses in future periods”.
A second factor, on guarantees, leases and other commercial commitments, grew to 602 words from 144, by our count.
As we read the 10-Q, the warrants work on two clocks: the grant-date value comes off revenue as qualifying sales are recorded, while the liability is marked to AMD’s share price every quarter, which is where the $1,097 million loss came from.
As we read the per-share figure, most of the move from $14.25 to $178.58 reflects AMD’s stock price, since the 10-Q says the value is based primarily on its closing price as most market conditions had been met.
AMD, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026
“Changes in our stock price have resulted in substantial non-cash charges, and changes in our stock price or in these estimates may result in substantial non-cash gains or losses in future periods”
Three Implications
FOR REVENUE The 10-Q says $4.5 billion of unrecognised grant-date value would be recorded as a reduction of revenue as qualifying customer revenue is recognised.
FOR GAAP PROFIT The third-quarter change in the warrant liability was a loss of $1,097 million, recorded in other income (expense).
FOR THE SHARE COUNT The 10-Q says no warrant shares had vested or become exercisable by 26 September; up to 320 million shares are covered.
The framework says: “The $1T capex cycle is being underwritten by a $1T concentrated demand commitment from two counterparties whose combined free cash flow is deeply negative.”
As we read it, AMD’s warrants are one way a supplier ties itself to concentrated demand: two customers can earn up to 320 million AMD shares as they buy, so AMD’s share price and their purchases move its reported results together. The framework names OpenAI and Anthropic, not Meta, and does not discuss AMD’s warrants.
The 10-Q does not split the $178.58, the $1.2 billion liability or the $4.5 billion between OpenAI and Meta, and it does not say how much revenue has been reduced so far. The $57.1 billion is a multiplication of the stated per-share average by the maximum share count, not a figure AMD reports. Whether and when tranches vest depends on purchase milestones, stock-price targets and technical and commercial conditions the customers must meet.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
Anthropic’s Reality Check, The Capital Squeeze, & The New World Order
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a growthstory. This week it started being priced as a credit story.
AMD’s Q3 10-Q values its OpenAI and Meta warrants at a weighted $178.58 a share, about 12.5 times the $14.25 grant-date average by our arithmetic, carries a $1.2 billion warrant liability, and has $4.5 billion of grant-date value still to be recorded as a reduction of revenue. No warrant shares had vested by 26 September.
95,000+ executives read Business Engineer for the AI strategy frameworks cited by ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity.
A note on sourcing. Warrant terms, values, the liability and quotations are from AMD’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026, filed with the SEC on 3 November 2026. Figures attributed to earlier pieces come from those pieces. Multiples, totals and shares are our arithmetic; risk-factor word counts are our count.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
