It’s hard to know right now how big the “online privacy” market will be. As I pointed out on “How To Build A Business Model Based On The Market Leader Weakness” DuckDuckGo (DDG) is leveraging on a Google weakness to build up momentum (it is essential to clarify that since 2009 DDG has grown pretty fast).
Yet, when it comes to DDG business model, it still makes money via Advertising and Affiliate Marketing. Advertising is shown based on the keywords typed into the search box. Affiliate revenues come from Amazon and eBay affiliate programs. When users buy after getting on those sites through DuckDuckGo the company collects a small commission.
In short, the paradox is that as those multi-billion dollar digital advertisers can’t live without your data, the more privacy will become a concern, thus a business opportunity. On the other hand, a business model is made of many moving parts.
Therefore, even though DDG might continue to gain traction and it might do so via the existing monetization strategy and other rounds of financing, it will need a viable business model (to compete against a tech giant like Google) any time soon.
Also, as search is moving toward mobile, voice and other kinds of online discoveries; traditional search might become secondary. True, the Lindy Effect tells us that something unperishable – like search technology – that lived for 20 years might live for at least other 20 years. However, it might not tell us much about the adoption rate.
Indeed, it might be true that the search market will still be a technology that will exist for the next twenty years at least. Yet it might be that the rate of adoption will be way lower than it is today. Imagine the scenario where you are given several ways to consume content, and traditional search is just one of them. How many chances there are that people will still keep using it?
Google itself is using its cash cow (the advertising network comprising AdWords and AdSense) to reinvest massively in voice search, and as other tech giants like Apple (with Cortana) and Amazon (with Alexa) are also investing massive resources on that, the way we consume content might completely change in a few years. And once again search might still exist but as a niche of a much broader market that offers many other ways of consuming content.
In that context, DDG might make a great niche search engine and alternative to Google but nothing more; yet if DDG can grow faster, find a sustainable business model (for such intended both profitable and able to allow DDG to scale up) and move also to voice (assuming you can enable voice search based on the privacy of its users) then we might see the birth of another tech giant, one the founded its success on privacy!
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