Alphabet’s “Other Bets” delivered $344M in revenue and $1.4B in operating loss, maintaining an annual burn rate of $5–6B—less than 2% of total revenue.
The portfolio demonstrates disciplined optionality: massive potential bets (Waymo, Verily, Willow) managed under strict capital efficiency.
Each moonshot aligns with Alphabet’s core thesis—AI as infrastructure—spanning mobility, biology, and physics.
Waymo edges toward commercialization, Life Sciences adopts a quiet, long-term approach, and Quantum Willow positions Alphabet for post-classical computing advantage.
Alphabet’s “Other Bets” are often misunderstood as a scattershot of experiments. In reality, they function as structured optionality layers—each calibrated to different time horizons, capital intensities, and strategic adjacencies to Google’s AI core.
Alphabet’s moonshot model has matured. Gone is the unconstrained “Google X” era of speculative experimentation. What remains is a disciplined innovation stack, where every project must demonstrate eventual alignment with the broader AI–infrastructure flywheel.
1. Waymo: Graduating to Real Business
Status: Commercial Inflection | Expansion to London & Tokyo in 2026
Waymo represents Alphabet’s most advanced non-linear bet, transitioning from research to recurring revenue. In 2025, the unit expanded ride-hail operations across Dallas, Nashville, Denver, and Seattle, with airport autonomy approved at SJC and SFO and NYC testing underway.
The roadmap for 2026 is clear: first major international deployments in London and Tokyo. These markets were chosen for regulatory readiness, high urban density, and transit-friendly public attitudes—conditions ideal for scaling autonomous fleets.
Capital Discipline: $5–6B burn ≈ <2% of Alphabet’s total revenue base.
At its current trajectory, Waymo could become a multi-decade compounding asset—combining high fixed-cost infrastructure with near-zero marginal ride costs.
Strategic Synergy
Waymo is not just a transportation company. Each mile driven trains Alphabet’s AI in spatial reasoning, environmental perception, and motion planning—capabilities that directly enhance Gemini’s world-model learning. It’s effectively a ground-level reinforcement loop for Alphabet’s cognitive systems.
The commercialization of Waymo thus serves dual objectives: monetization and AI performance improvement. Every city expansion feeds both P&L growth and neural network advancement—a unique convergence of mobility and intelligence infrastructure.
2. Life Sciences: The Quiet Revolution
Entities: Verily (Health & Trials) | Calico (Longevity) Strategic Focus: AI x Biology Convergence
Alphabet’s life sciences division has intentionally moved into stealth execution mode after a decade of overexposure and limited results. Yet beneath the surface, the group is building what could become Alphabet’s next trillion-dollar vertical: AI-optimized healthcare.
Verily: Precision Health & Clinical Trial Optimization
Verily applies AI to accelerate trial design, patient selection, and outcome prediction—reducing timelines and cost structures across pharmaceutical research. The platform now collaborates with several top-ten pharma firms to integrate Gemini-powered predictive modeling into trial logistics.
This approach transforms healthcare’s “data desert” into a structured, computable space. For Alphabet, it’s a direct application of its knowledge graph and AI inference strengths into one of the world’s largest and least digitized markets.
Calico: Longevity Research and the Long Horizon
Calico continues its long-term exploration of aging and cellular biology, focusing on step-function improvements rather than incremental biotech plays. Its model is unconventional—closer to scientific venture infrastructure than a traditional lab. Timeframes are measured in decades, not quarters, but the underlying rationale remains powerful:
The $4T+ U.S. healthcare market offers vast room for AI-driven efficiency.
AI x Life Sciences could yield step-changes in diagnostics, personalized medicine, and preventive care.
Alphabet’s decision to maintain a low-profile strategy reflects lessons learned from past moonshot missteps. Quiet progress, not public hype, defines this phase.
Strategic Rationale
Market Potential: $4T+ addressable market.
Synergy: Gemini’s predictive reasoning applied to bioinformatics, imaging, and clinical data.
Positioning: Long-cycle optionality with exponential upside if breakthroughs occur.
The “quiet revolution” label fits: Life Sciences may not produce headlines today—but it could redefine Alphabet’s future business model tomorrow.
3. Quantum: Willow and the Post-Classical Frontier
Project Willow | 13,000x Faster Than Supercomputers | Nobel-Caliber Talent
Alphabet’s quantum computing initiative—Willow—has reached a milestone that places it at the frontier of post-classical computation. The Willow Chip reportedly achieves 13,000x performance gains over classical supercomputers on specific quantum workloads.
Led by Nobel laureate Michel Devoret, the project has achieved three Nobel-level recognitions in two years, marking Google Quantum AI as the field’s intellectual gravity center.
Strategic Value
Willow represents the most non-linear bet in Alphabet’s entire portfolio. Its value is not immediate monetization but computational sovereignty: ensuring Alphabet controls the next substrate of computation before the next paradigm shift.
Quantum’s breakthrough potential spans:
AI acceleration — quantum-enhanced model training and probabilistic optimization
Material science — battery chemistry, superconductors
Cryptography and simulation — securing Alphabet’s cloud and data assets in a post-encryption world
By embedding Quantum AI within the Google Cloud division, Alphabet ensures that each quantum breakthrough feeds directly into its core compute business. This integration mirrors the TPU playbook: internal innovation that eventually scales as commercial infrastructure.
Optionality and Talent Magnetism
Quantum also functions as a strategic magnet for elite research talent—an insurance policy against intellectual stagnation. The project’s symbolic value, as much as its computational one, keeps Alphabet at the bleeding edge of physics-driven innovation.
Mechanisms: The Optionality Flywheel
Alphabet’s managed moonshots follow a common operational blueprint:
Lever
Mechanism
Strategic Outcome
Capital Discipline
$5–6B annual burn rate
Retains exposure without impairing profitability
Knowledge Transfer
Shared AI infrastructure (Gemini, TPUs)
Converts moonshot data into core model training
Talent Retention
Elite scientific magnet
Preserves innovation density across divisions
Time Arbitrage
10–20-year horizon
Exploits the patience gap competitors can’t afford
This structure turns “Other Bets” into a strategic hedge fund for the future. Alphabet spends a fraction of current profits to buy real options on multiple trillion-dollar outcomes—mobility, health, and computation.
Conclusion: The Art of Controlled Asymmetry
Alphabet’s “Other Bets” portfolio proves that moonshots don’t need to bleed—they can be managed, measured, and mission-aligned.
By balancing exploration (Waymo, Verily, Willow) with financial discipline (sub-2% burn rate), Alphabet achieves what few incumbents manage: long-term asymmetry within short-term profitability.
Waymo grounds the future in operational reality. Verily and Calico quietly tackle the human body’s hardest problems. Willow prepares for a post-classical computing era.
Together, they form a continuum of optionality—bridging AI’s present with the frontiers of biology and physics. In the architecture of Alphabet, this isn’t experimentation. It’s strategic patience engineered at scale.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
