Palantir shares traded at $170.82 at 14:36 UTC on 3 November, 4.22% below the $178.34 close of 2 November, according to Nasdaq.com quote data, in the first regular session since Palantir reported its third quarter. The regular session opened at 14:30 UTC.
By our arithmetic, a $7.52 fall on the 2,409,497,474 Class A, B and F shares the 10-Q says were outstanding on 26 October is about $18 billion of stock market value.
Business Pill ยท Financial Conditions
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The key insight: By our arithmetic, Palantir’s $7.52 fall to $170.82 at 14:36 UTC on 3 November is about $18 billion of market value; its fourth-quarter guide implies revenuegrowth of 14.6% over the third quarter, against 19.1% a year earlier.
Before the open, Nasdaq.com showed Palantir at $167.20 at 8:59 a.m. New York time, or 13:59 UTC, down 6.25% in pre-market trading. In Nasdaq.com’s minute data, the first regular-session reading was $168.25 at 14:30 UTC; the session low so far was $166.67 at 14:31 UTC and the high $170.47 at 14:34 UTC.
24/7 Wall St, in a report published at 13:44 UTC, said that what was weighing on the shares was “the slower sequential growth built into the company’s Q4 2026 forecast”. Citing Yahoo Finance, it said the forecast implies 15% quarter-over-quarter growth, slower than the 20% pace in the same period last year.
Palantir’s fourth-quarter revenuegrowth over the third quarter, 2023 to 2025 from its SEC filings, and 2026 at the midpoint of its $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion fourth-quarter guide. Fourth quarters 2023-25 are full-year revenue minus the first three quarters; all growth rates are our arithmetic. Chart: FourWeekMBA.
The Fourth-Quarter Step in the Filings
Palantir’s earnings release guides fourth-quarter revenue to between $2.649 billion and $2.653 billion. The $2.651 billion midpoint is 14.6% above the $2.313 billion it reported for the third quarter, by our arithmetic.
From its SEC filings, the same fourth-over-third-quarter step was 19.1% in 2025, from $1.181 billion to $1.407 billion; 14.1% in 2024; and 9.0% in 2023, our arithmetic, taking each fourth quarter as full-year revenue minus the first three quarters. The guide sits between the 2024 and 2025 steps.
By our arithmetic, the market value lost at 14:36 UTC is about 7 times the $2.651 billion of revenue Palantir guides for the fourth quarter.
What Our Earlier Pieces Found
The raise to full-year guidance was the smallest of three, $378 million at the midpoint, as our guidance ladder sets out. Total contract value rose 6% while revenue rose 96%, as we covered in our contract value piece.
As we read the filings, the fourth-quarter guide is a step down from 2025 but above 2024: by our arithmetic the step was 19.1% in 2025 and 14.1% in 2024, and the guide’s midpoint is 14.6%.
As we read our earlier coverage, the guide sits alongside a smaller full-year raise, $378 million at the midpoint, and contract value that rose 6% while revenue rose 96%.
Palantir Q3 2026 earnings release, 2 November 2026
“Revenue of between $2.649 – $2.653 billion”
Three Implications
FOR SHAREHOLDERS By our arithmetic, the move on 2,409,497,474 shares is about $18 billion of market value at 14:36 UTC; the figure moves with the price.
FOR THE GROWTH READ 24/7 Wall St, citing Yahoo Finance, said the forecast implies 15% quarter-over-quarter growth against 20% a year earlier; our arithmetic from the filings gives 14.6% and 19.1%.
FOR SOFTWARE STOCKS 24/7 Wall St said software stocks were lower across the board, with Datadog and Snowflake also down, and Palantir’s decline the largest of the group.
The framework argues: “The SaaS market is splitting into two irreconcilable extremes”.
As we read it, a software selloff that hit Palantir, Datadog and Snowflake on the same morning is one market reading of that split. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss Palantir’s results or share price.
The reasons for a share-price move are the market’s, not Palantir’s; the explanation here is the one 24/7 Wall St gave. It also said software stocks were lower across the board and that Datadog fell harder than Palantir over the past week, which it said “undermines the case that Palantir’s slump is purely a reaction to its own report”.
Palantir’s guidance is its own forecast. The price is a point in a moving session, and the market value figure moves with it.
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Palantir traded at $170.82 at 14:36 UTC, 4.22% below its 2 November close, about $18 billion of market value by our arithmetic. 24/7 Wall St tied the drop to slower sequential growth in the fourth-quarter guide, which by our arithmetic is 14.6%, against 19.1% a year earlier.
A note on sourcing. Prices are from Nasdaq.com quote data read on 3 November 2026 at the times shown; shares outstanding are from the cover of Palantir’s third-quarter 10-Q; the fourth-quarter guide is from its earnings release filed with the SEC; quarterly revenue is from its SEC XBRL filings. The reason for the move is as reported by 24/7 Wall St. The market value change, multiples and growth rates are our arithmetic. We did not contact Palantir.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
