Fifteen bills in this Congress would change how the United States controls exports of advanced AI chips, chipmaking equipment or remote access to them, by our count of the official bill status files. None is law. Two have passed one chamber, four have cleared a House committee and nine show no action after referral to committee, while the controls in force today are rules the Commerce Department writes under a 2018 statute.
Nvidia disclosed its chief executive’s resignation in a Form 8-K on 12 November, and House Speaker Mike Johnson said the same day there was a “developing consensus in Congress” on limiting chip exports to China, Reuters reported. This map sets out the four layers, the law, the rules, enforcement and the bills, and what officials and lawmakers have said about each since the resignation.
Business Pill · GPUs Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on why AI runs on GPUs, the chips these export rules and bills address. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss the rules or the bills.
The key insight: As we read the record, the controls in force are rules the Commerce Department writes under the 2018 export-control act, plus a Section 232 tariff on the H200 route, while all 15 bills that would change them are still pending: two have passed one chamber, four cleared a House committee and nine sit at referral, by our count.
The Export Control Reform Act of 2018, signed on 13 August 2018 as part of the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, “provides the legal basis for BIS’s principal authorities”, the Bureau of Industry and Security says in its rule of 9 November 2026. Section 1754 of the act authorises the Entity List, a list of foreign persons and end uses found to threaten US national security or foreign policy, and restrictions on exports to them.
A second statute now sits beside it. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 authorises the president to “adjust the imports” of an article that threatens to impair national security, as the Congressional Research Service describes it in a legal sidebar of 23 March 2026. The chip licence rules below are written under the export-control act; the 25% chip tariff uses Section 232.
Fifteen bills in the 119th Congress that would change US controls on advanced chip exports, chipmaking-tool exports or remote access, by the furthest stage of each House and Senate version: two passed one chamber, four cleared a House committee, nine sit at referral and none is law. Source: govinfo bill status files read on 13 November 2026. The count is FourWeekMBA’s.
Layer 2: The Rules BIS Has Written
Since October 2022, chips that pass a performance test in export classification 3A090 have needed a Commerce licence for China, and the October 2023 rule widened the test and the destinations, as set out in our export rules explainer. The AI Diffusion rule of January 2025, which would have set country allocations, was rescinded before its compliance date, with the rescission announced on 13 May 2025.
On 15 January 2026, 91 FR 1684 moved licence reviews for the Nvidia H200 and less advanced chips to China and Macau from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review. The exporter must certify, among other conditions, that there is sufficient supply in the United States and that “the item undergoes independent, third-party testing in the United States to verify its performance specifications”.
The money came by proclamation. Proclamation 11002 of 14 January 2026 imposed “an immediate 25 percent ad valorem duty rate” on certain advanced computing chips whose import does not contribute to the US technology build-out, with exemptions for US data centres, research, startups and other domestic uses. The CRS says the administration implemented what it calls the Chips Arrangement through that tariff and the licence rule, and that the White House explained the 25% fee would be “collected as a tariff when the chips were imported to the United States from fabrication sites in Taiwan”.
Two rules carry dates. The September 2025 Affiliates Rule, under which any entity at least 50 percent owned by Entity List entities is itself restricted, was suspended for a year in November 2025, and on 9 November 2026 BIS extended the suspension through 10 January 2027. BIS has also set 31 December 2026 as the new date for applications to become an approved integrated circuit designer, and in July it moved the United Arab Emirates into Country Group A:5, giving its government and approved commercial entities licence-free access to advanced computing items.
Layer 3: Enforcement and the Entity List
The Federal Register shows no BIS rule adding an entity to the Entity List since 9 October 2025, when 90 FR 48193 added 29 entries; that is 400 days before 13 November, by our count, and the three Entity List rules published since then only removed an entity, aliases or addresses. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNBC on 13 November that four departments had favoured listing Nvidia customer Megaspeed for months and that “Commerce, BIS, has the pen”, as set out in our report on the Bessent interview.
Axios reported on 11 November that an action authorized on 5 November against companies suspected of diverting Nvidia chips to China had not yet been taken. The Information reported this month that Commerce is preparing to finalize a rule on remote access to advanced chips through data centres abroad, covering seven more countries, as covered in our piece on the remote-access rule. The Federal Register public inspection list we read at 15:41 UTC on 13 November held no Commerce Department document.
Layer 4: Where the 15 Bills Stand
Two bills have passed one chamber. The Remote Access Security Act, H.R. 2683, would “provide for control of remote access of items under the Export Control Reform Act of 2018”; it passed the House 369 to 22 on 12 January and has been with Senate Banking since 13 January. The Stop Stealing our Chips Act, S. 1473, which would set up a whistleblower incentive programme under the export-control act, passed the Senate by unanimous consent on 20 May and has been held at the desk in the House since 21 May.
Four have cleared the House Foreign Affairs Committee, per their status files: the Chip Security Act, H.R. 3447, 42 to 0 on 26 March; the AI OVERWATCH Act, H.R. 6875, 42 to 2 on 21 January; the MATCH Act, H.R. 8170, on “certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment”, 36 to 8 on 22 April; and the House Stop Stealing our Chips Act, H.R. 6322, 43 to 1 on 22 April. That committee vote is the latest recorded action for each.
Nine show no action after referral. Five are the Senate versions of the Chip Security, AI OVERWATCH and MATCH Acts and both versions of the GAIN AI Act. The SAFE Chips Act, S. 3374, would bar licences for advanced chips to foreign adversaries, per its official title.
The RESTRICT Act, H.R. 6879, concerns sales of the most advanced AI chips to countries of concern. The No Advanced Chips for the CCP Act, H.R. 5022, would require congressional approval for such exports to China, and the SCALE Act, H.R. 8306, would set a rolling annual standard for certain chip sales, per their official titles.
Six of the 15 list the Senate Banking Committee as their latest stop, by our count. Its chairman, Tim Scott, has asked Nvidia’s former chief executive to testify on 3 December and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on 10 December, and the committee says it “oversees advanced semiconductor export controls”, as set out in our piece on the hearing dates. The nine bills we tracked earlier are in our count of nine bills; this map adds six we found in the same bill records.
Johnson told reporters on 12 November, per Reuters: “So we’ll see where that goes. I think it might change a few minds around here”. Bloomberg tied the momentum behind the legislation to the departure, and Punchbowl News reported that OpenAI told Hill offices it supports the Chip Security, MATCH and AI OVERWATCH Acts and that the measures would likely move in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, as reported in our piece on OpenAI’s backing.
A Punchbowl News item reposted on Senator Jim Banks’s website says the manager’s amendment to the Senate defense bill “will include the AI Overwatch Act, the MATCH Act and the Chip Security Act, according to multiple sources”, while noting there is “still much in flux for the fate of the Senate NDAA”.
The Information reported on 9 November that White House feedback to congressional staff called for a provision, attached to the AI Overwatch Act, ordering Commerce to close the remote-access gap. On the tariff, the CRS wrote that if no party with standing challenges the arrangement in court, “Congress’s response to the arrangement may determine, at least as a practical matter, whether the executive branch has the power to implement the arrangement or others like it”.
It notes that H.R. 6875 would generally bar licences for certain chips to named countries of concern unless Congress approves them by joint resolution.
Senator Ron Wyden and Representative Richard E. Neal, the top Democrats on the tax committees, opened an investigation on 12 November into the approval and taxing of Nvidia chip exports, calling the H200 arrangement “what appears to be an unconstitutional export tax system”; that is their description in a letter, not a finding.
Hearings and Deadlines Set So Far
By our count from 13 November: Nvidia reports results on 17 November, 4 days out. Thanksgiving on 26 November, 13 days out, closes the window House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast described for testimony, according to Bloomberg. The Senate Banking dates requested for the former chief executive and for Lutnick are 3 and 10 December, 20 and 27 days out.
The approved IC designer application date is 31 December, 48 days out. The 119th Congress ends on 3 January 2027, 51 days out, and the Affiliates Rule suspension runs through 10 January 2027, 58 days out.
The Structural Read
As we read the status files, the two bills that have passed a chamber did so in different chambers: the Remote Access Security Act in the House and the Stop Stealing our Chips Act in the Senate, and neither has had a recorded vote in the other chamber.
As we read the Federal Register, the rules layer has moved on dates rather than on new listings: the Affiliates Rule suspension now runs through 10 January 2027, while no entity has been added to the Entity List in 400 days, by our count.
As we read the CRS sidebar, the tariff is the part of the system Congress has not yet addressed by statute, which is why the CRS points to Congress’s response as a practical test of the arrangement.
Congressional Research Service, Legal Sidebar LSB11409, 23 March 2026
“Congress’s response to the arrangement may determine, at least as a practical matter, whether the executive branch has the power to implement the arrangement or others like it”
Three Implications
FOR CHIP EXPORTERS The H200 route runs through case-by-case licences with certifications and US third-party testing under 91 FR 1684, and a 25 percent duty under Proclamation 11002, which the CRS says implement the Chips Arrangement.
FOR CHIPMAKING-TOOL SUPPLIERS The MATCH Act, on certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment, cleared the House Foreign Affairs Committee 36 to 8 on 22 April; OpenAI is reported by Punchbowl News to back it.
FOR CLOUD PROVIDERS ABROAD The House passed the Remote Access Security Act 369 to 22 on 12 January, and The Information reported that a Commerce remote-access rule is being prepared; neither is in force.
The framework argues that the AI supply chain is “creating geopolitical leverage that operates independently of who has the best models”.
As we read it, the four layers in this map are where that leverage is written down: a statute, the rules under it, the list that enforces it and the bills that would change it. The framework predates this map and does not discuss it.
The four layers in this map: the 2018 act and Section 232; BIS rules including 91 FR 1684, Proclamation 11002 and the Affiliates Rule suspension (91 FR 70789); Entity List enforcement (last additions 90 FR 48193, 9 October 2025); and 15 pending bills. Day and bill counts are FourWeekMBA’s.
What Is Not Established
Our count of 15 covers the bills we found in the govinfo bill records whose titles concern chip or chipmaking-tool exports, remote access or export-control enforcement; it may not be complete, and status files can lag later actions. No sponsor has said, in the documents we read, which bill reaches a floor vote next. The NDAA route comes from Punchbowl’s reporting, the remote-access rule is reported and not published, and the 5 November action is reported by Axios. We did not contact Nvidia, the Commerce Department or the bills’ sponsors.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
The US controls chip exports through rules Commerce writes under the 2018 export-control act, plus a Section 232 tariff on the H200 route. Fifteen bills would change that: two have passed one chamber, four cleared a House committee, nine sit at referral and none is law, by our count, with 51 days left in this Congress.
A note on sourcing. Bill stages, votes, sponsors and official titles come from the govinfo bill status files for the 119th Congress, read on 13 November 2026; those files can lag later actions. Rules and the tariff come from the Federal Register (91 FR 1684, Proclamation 11002, 91 FR 70789, 90 FR 48193 and later Entity List rules) and the Congressional Research Service legal sidebar LSB11409.
Reported items from Reuters, Bloomberg, Punchbowl News, The Information, Axios and CNBC come from our earlier pieces linked above. The bill count, stage counts and day counts are our own. We did not contact Nvidia, the Commerce Department or the bills’ sponsors.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
