As much as 10% of Nvidia’s revenue may come directly or indirectly from China, according to a Monday analysis from New Street Research, CNBC reported on 9 November. Nvidia’s own latest 10-Q puts China (including Hong Kong) at $7,880 million of $96,221 million in revenue for the quarter to 26 July 2026: 8.2%, by our arithmetic.
The two numbers measure different things. The filing counts where Nvidia’s direct customers have their headquarters. New Street’s figure, as CNBC reports it, also counts chips booked outside China that end up in China or with Chinese-controlled firms.
Business Pill · GPUs
A one-minute explainer of what GPUs are and why AI training depends on them. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nvidia’s China sales or New Street’s estimate.
The key insight: New Street Research puts up to 10% of Nvidia’s revenue as directly or indirectly exposed to China, with 6% as legal sales, CNBC reports. Nvidia’s 10-Q shows China (including Hong Kong) at $7,880 million of $96,221 million in the quarter to 26 July: 8.2%, by our arithmetic.
CNBC says the 10% amounts to between $37 billion and $47 billion of the $411 billion in revenue that consensus estimates cited by New Street expect for Nvidia’s fiscal year 2027.
New Street splits that exposure in two. It classifies 6% as “legal sales” into China and Hong Kong, and 4% as booked officially outside of China. Of that 4%, the firm estimates that half gets physically diverted into China, while the other half is used by Chinese-controlled firms outside of China, according to CNBC. The report does not name the New Street analyst.
China share of Nvidia revenue on two measures. Nvidia 10-Q bars: China (including Hong Kong) by direct customer headquarters, quarter and first half to 26 July 2026; shares are our arithmetic. New Street bars: estimates for fiscal 2027 as reported by CNBC on 9 November 2026, not independently verified.
What Nvidia’s 10-Q Shows
Nvidia’s 10-Q for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, filed on 26 August, lists revenue by customer headquarters location. China (including Hong Kong) was $7,880 million in the quarter, up from $3,985 million a year earlier, and $12,430 million in the first half.
By our arithmetic, that is 8.2% of revenue in the quarter and 7.0% in the first half ($12,430 million of $177,837 million). The filing also says shipments of Data Center Hopper products to China in the quarter were less than 1% of Data Center revenue.
Set side by side, New Street’s 6% for legal sales sits below the 8.2% the filing shows for the latest quarter, while its 10% all-in figure sits above it. The filing warns that the end customer and shipping location may be different from the direct customer’s headquarters, which is the gap New Street is trying to size.
The Export-Control Backdrop
CNBC frames the estimate around concern on Wall Street about a potential crackdown on Nvidia’s business operations, after this week’s governance news at the company. Nvidia stock was down about 5% in regular trading on Monday, CNBC says; we covered the premarket fall of 5.1% earlier in the day.
The U.S. maintains export controls on some of Nvidia’s most advanced chips, CNBC notes, and Chinese firms have reportedly been able to reach Nvidia-powered computing capacity through other countries. The 10-Q says the U.S. government granted licenses from February 2026 to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers, but such sales were restricted by the PRC government.
Nvidia told investors at its 2026 annual shareholders meeting: “We are committed to compliance with all U.S. laws and work in collaboration with the entire AI ecosystem and US government.”
As we read the two figures, the gap between them is a measurement gap: the filing counts where direct customers are headquartered, and New Street tries to count where chips end up. The filing cannot confirm or rule out the part booked outside China.
Nvidia, 2026 annual shareholders meeting, as reported by CNBC
“We are committed to compliance with all U.S. laws and work in collaboration with the entire AI ecosystem and US government.”
Three Implications
FOR INVESTORS CNBC puts New Street’s range at $37 billion to $47 billion of $411 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue expected by consensus estimates cited by New Street.
FOR EXPORT POLICY New Street estimates 4% of revenue is booked outside China, half of it physically diverted into China and half used by Chinese-controlled firms abroad, according to CNBC.
FOR THE FILING Nvidia’s 10-Q says Data Center Hopper shipments to China were less than 1% of Data Center revenue in the quarter, and H200 sales under U.S. licenses were restricted by the PRC government.
The framework argues, describing the governance layer that includes export controls: “Layer 9 answers to geopolitics, not to engineering.”
As we read it, New Street’s split is an attempt to size how much of Nvidia’s revenue sits under that layer. The framework predates this estimate and does not discuss New Street or Nvidia’s China figures.
What Is Not Established
New Street’s split is an estimate; CNBC does not describe its method, and we have not seen the note itself. CNBC’s report gives no New Street scenario for tighter export controls and no figure for revenue at risk. Nvidia does not disclose revenue by end-customer location, so the filing cannot confirm or rule out the 4% booked outside China. The 10-Q covers the quarter to 26 July; Nvidia has not yet filed its third-quarter 10-Q.
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New Street puts Nvidia’s direct and indirect China exposure at up to 10% of revenue, with 6% as legal sales, CNBC reports. Nvidia’s latest filing shows 8.2% of quarterly revenue from customers headquartered in China and Hong Kong, by our arithmetic, on a basis that does not track where chips end up.
A note on sourcing. New Street Research’s estimates come from CNBC’s report of 9 November; we have not seen the research note. China revenue figures come from Nvidia’s 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026. The 8.2% and 7.0% shares are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
