Microsoft is “the only big AI spender that can still afford to pay for its own ambitions”, the newsletter Opening Bell Daily wrote on 11 November, because Meta, Oracle, Alphabet and Amazon all had negative free cash flow in their latest quarters. We rebuilt the figure for all five from their quarterly filings, and for the latest quarter the claim holds: Microsoft had $18.6 billion of free cash flow, and Meta, the closest of the other four, was $1.2 billion short of breaking even.
Over a longer window the picture changes. Across the latest three quarters, Meta’s operating cash flow exceeded its capital spending by $13.8 billion, and Microsoft’s by $54.1 billion, while Alphabet, Amazon and Oracle were negative, by our arithmetic from the five companies’ cash flow statements on SEC EDGAR.
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The key insight: As we read it, the gap between Microsoft and the other four is less about how much each spends than about how much cash each business throws off: Microsoft spent 68% of its operating cash flow on property and equipment in the quarter, Meta 104% and Amazon 182%, by our arithmetic.
We used the same definition as the newsletter: net cash from operating activities minus the cash each company spent on property and equipment, as its cash flow statement reports it. Microsoft calls that line additions to property and equipment, Oracle calls it capital expenditures, and Alphabet, Amazon and Meta call it purchases of property and equipment.
The latest quarter is July to September 2026 for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, and June to August 2026 for Oracle, whose fiscal year ends in May. Alphabet and Meta report nine-month cash flows, so their third-quarter figures are nine months minus six months, and Microsoft’s and Oracle’s three-quarter figures are summed from their fiscal quarters, all by our arithmetic.
Free cash flow, defined as net cash from operating activities minus cash spent on property and equipment, for the latest quarter (dark) and the latest three quarters (light), in billions of dollars, from the five companies’ 10-Q and 10-K cash flow statements. Latest quarter: July to September 2026, except Oracle, June to August 2026. Quarterly splits and three-quarter sums are our arithmetic.
The Latest Quarter, Company by Company
Microsoft’s 10-Q shows $58.0 billion of net cash from operations and $39.4 billion of additions to property and equipment, leaving $18.6 billion, the figure Microsoft gave on its earnings call. Its capital spending equalled 68% of operating cash flow, by our arithmetic.
Meta’s 10-Q implies $32.8 billion of operating cash flow and $33.9 billion of purchases of property and equipment in the quarter, so free cash flow was about minus $1.2 billion and spending was 104% of operating cash. Alphabet’s 10-Q implies $42.3 billion against $51.4 billion, minus $9.1 billion and 121%, by our arithmetic.
Amazon’s 10-Q shows $42.4 billion of operating cash flow against $77.3 billion of purchases of property and equipment, minus $34.8 billion and 182%. Amazon’s own measure nets off $1.4 billion of proceeds from property sales and incentives, which gives minus $33.5 billion for the quarter. Oracle’s 10-Q reports free cash flow of minus $5.4 billion on $23.1 billion of operating cash and $28.5 billion of capital expenditures, 123%.
Cash spent on property and equipment as a share of net cash from operating activities, for the latest three quarters and the latest quarter, from the five companies’ 10-Q and 10-K cash flow statements. Oracle’s latest quarter is June to August 2026. The ratios are our arithmetic.
What Finance Leases Change
Finance leases are equipment and data centres the companies use under long leases, which they repay over time instead of paying for up front. Subtracting the principal repaid on them in the quarter, as Meta does in its own capital spending figure, leaves Microsoft at $17.6 billion, Meta at minus $2.1 billion, Alphabet at minus $10.2 billion and Amazon at minus $35.3 billion, by our arithmetic.
Oracle’s 10-Q gives $186 million of cash paid for finance leases, which would leave it at about minus $5.6 billion. Microsoft is still the only one above zero.
A stricter count gives the same answer. Microsoft’s chief financial officer, Amy Hood, said on the earnings call that “finance leases were $7.4 billion” in the quarter and that capital expenditures including them were $45.2 billion. Measured against that, Microsoft’s $58.0 billion of operating cash flow still left $12.8 billion, by our arithmetic. The newsletter made the same point, saying Microsoft “remained positive” after counting the $7.4 billion.
Nine Months Tell a Different Story
Over the three quarters to September, Meta generated $96.9 billion of operating cash flow and spent $83.1 billion on property and equipment, a surplus of $13.8 billion and a ratio of 86%, by our arithmetic. Meta’s 10-Q puts its capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, at $85.82 billion, which still leaves about $11.1 billion.
Microsoft’s three quarters from January to September 2026 come to $160.1 billion of operating cash and $106.0 billion of spending, a surplus of $54.1 billion. Alphabet was minus $4.8 billion, Amazon minus $61.8 billion, and Oracle minus $18.8 billion over December 2025 to August 2026, by our arithmetic. Of Meta’s three quarters this year, the third was the only one in which its spending passed its operating cash flow: its first-quarter and first-half filings put the first quarter at $32.2 billion against $19.0 billion and the second at $31.9 billion against $30.1 billion, by our arithmetic.
Oracle’s Cash Came Partly From Customers
Oracle’s operating cash flow rose 184% from $8.1 billion a year earlier, its 10-Q shows. Its cash flow statement includes an $11.4 billion “increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component”, a line that was blank a year earlier. Without that line, Oracle’s operating cash flow would have been about $11.7 billion and its free cash flow about minus $16.8 billion, by our arithmetic.
Oracle also raised $19.9 billion by selling shares through its at-the-market program in the quarter, its cash flow statement shows. Microsoft, by contrast, repaid $4.9 billion of debt and spent $4.4 billion on buybacks and $6.8 billion on dividends.
As we read the filings, the free cash flow verdict depends on the window: one quarter makes Microsoft the only company above zero, but over three quarters Meta was positive too, by $13.8 billion, because its spending only passed its operating cash flow in the third quarter.
As we read Oracle’s 10-Q, part of its operating cash came from customers paying in advance: an $11.4 billion increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments in one quarter, without which its free cash flow would have been about minus $16.8 billion, by our arithmetic.
Amy Hood, Microsoft chief financial officer, earnings call prepared remarks, 28 October 2026
“Given our strong business performance, we expect to continue to remain free cash flow positive in FY27.”
Three Implications
FOR MICROSOFT Its $18.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter came after $39.4 billion of cash spending on property and equipment; counting the $7.4 billion of finance leases Hood cited, operating cash flow still exceeded capital expenditures by $12.8 billion, by our arithmetic.
FOR META Its third quarter was about $1.2 billion short of break-even on the plain definition, after a first half in which operating cash flow exceeded spending, its filings show.
FOR AMAZON, ALPHABET AND ORACLE Each was negative over both windows we measured; Amazon’s minus $61.8 billion over three quarters was the largest gap, by our arithmetic.
The framework argues: “This is not a continuation of the cloud capex cycle. This is a different cycle, with different physics.”
As we read it, free cash flow is where those physics show up first: four of the five largest spenders put more cash into property and equipment last quarter than their operations generated. The framework predates these quarterly filings and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
The three-quarter windows differ: Microsoft’s and Oracle’s fiscal quarters do not match the calendar quarters of the other three, and Oracle’s September-to-November quarter has not ended. Hood said Microsoft expects “to continue to remain free cash flow positive in FY27”; that is the company’s expectation, not a result.
Free cash flow on this definition leaves out acquisitions, investments and leases not yet started, and the companies define their own non-GAAP measures differently. The percentages, quarterly splits and lease-adjusted figures are our arithmetic. We did not contact the companies or Opening Bell Daily.
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For the latest quarter, Opening Bell Daily’s claim holds under both the plain and the lease-adjusted definition: Microsoft had $18.6 billion of free cash flow and the other four were negative, Meta by $1.2 billion. Over three quarters, Meta was also positive, by $13.8 billion, by our arithmetic.
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A note on sourcing. We read the cash flow statements and lease notes in Microsoft’s, Alphabet’s, Amazon’s and Meta’s Form 10-Q filings for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 and Oracle’s for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 on SEC EDGAR, with Amazon’s and Oracle’s free cash flow sections, the earlier quarterly and annual figures from the same companies’ filings through EDGAR’s XBRL data, Microsoft’s official prepared remarks for its 28 October earnings call and Opening Bell Daily’s newsletter of 11 November. Quarterly splits, three-quarter sums, ratios and lease-adjusted figures are our arithmetic. We did not contact the companies or Opening Bell Daily.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
