A DoorDash breakfast of three eggs, one bagel, one large avocado and a glass of milk averaged $3.95 in September, down from $4.20 a year earlier, according to a post on Wednesday by The Dashboard, DoorDash’s data account on X. The post says eggs fell 14.8% year over year and drove most of the decline. The official BLS average price for a dozen grade A large eggs fell 34.9% over the same twelve months, by our arithmetic.
Scaled back up to a dozen using DoorDash’s own method, the three-egg price works out to $4.58 a dozen in September 2026, about 2.0 times the BLS average of $2.27, by our arithmetic. A year earlier the same ratio was about 1.5 times. The two series measure different things, and the comparison is ours, not DoorDash’s.
Business Pill · Year-over-Year
A short explainer on year-over-year growth and the question it always raises: compared with what? It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss DoorDash’s or the BLS data.
The key insight: As we read it, DoorDash’s breakfast data and the official statistics agree on the direction and disagree on the size: its three eggs fell 14.8% while the BLS dozen fell 34.9%, so the DoorDash-implied dozen ended September at about 2.0 times the BLS average, by our arithmetic, up from about 1.5 times a year earlier.
The post reads: “The cost of breakfast in the U.S. is down 6% year over year.” It adds that the basket is “based on the average grocery prices on @DoorDash, with quantities divided into individual portions”, and that “Lower egg prices drove most of the decline, falling 14.8% year over year. Avocado prices also fell, by 3.9%.”
The figures come from DoorDash’s State of Local Commerce 2026 report, published on 10 November. Its table puts three eggs at $1.34 in September 2025 and $1.15 in September 2026, the avocado at $1.88 and $1.80, the bagel at $0.71 and $0.72 (+0.9%) and the glass of milk at $0.27 and $0.28 (+5.1%). The release says the decline was “driven mostly by eggs: the cost of three eggs is down 14.8%, but the overall basket is relatively flat otherwise”.
The methodology says: “This is based on the average price of a gallon of milk (divided by 16), a dozen eggs (divided by 4), a six-pack of bagels (divided by 6), and a large avocado bought at grocery stores consistently available on DoorDash Marketplace during the reference period”.
Average price, September 2025 to September 2026: DoorDash Breakfast Basics items (dozen = three-egg price x4, gallon = glass price x16) against BLS U.S. city average prices for grade A large eggs and whole milk. Data: DoorDash State of Local Commerce 2026, as published; BLS series APU0000708111 and APU0000709112. Scaling and comparison are our arithmetic; methods differ.
What Was Posted on X
The cost of breakfast in the U.S. is down 6% year over year.
A breakfast of three eggs, one bagel, one large avocado and a glass of milk averaged $3.95 this September, down from $4.20 a year earlier. That’s based on the average grocery prices on @DoorDash, with quantities divided into individual portions.
Lower egg prices drove most of the decline, falling 14.8% year over year. Avocado prices also fell, by 3.9%.
— The Dashboard | DoorDash (@TheDashboard) Nov 11 19:21
The Dashboard, DoorDash’s data account on X, posted the Breakfast Basics figures on 11 November: a basket of three eggs, one bagel, one large avocado and a glass of milk averaged $3.95 in September, down from $4.20 a year earlier, with eggs down 14.8%. This piece takes those figures from the post and DoorDash’s report and sets them against BLS average prices.
Our Numbers
Using the monthly values in the groceries file on the report’s data site, the basket fell by about 25 cents. Eggs account for about 20 cents of that, or roughly 79%, by our arithmetic, and the avocado for about 7 cents. The bagel and the milk added about 2 cents back.
The same file shows the basket peaked at $4.95 in March 2025, when three eggs cost $1.87. September’s $3.95 is about 20% below that peak, by our arithmetic.
Across the 87 cities in the file, the September basket ranges from $2.43 in Richmond, Virginia, to $6.57 in Honolulu, about 2.7 times as much, by our arithmetic. San Francisco ($6.46) and Anchorage ($6.38) follow Honolulu.
Price of a dozen eggs per month, September 2024 to September 2026: DoorDash-implied (three-egg price x4) against the BLS U.S. city average for grade A large eggs. BLS published no October 2025 value. Data: DoorDash State of Local Commerce 2026, as published; BLS APU0000708111. Scaling and ratios are our arithmetic.
The BLS Comparison
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a monthly U.S. city average price for a dozen grade A large eggs. It was $3.488 in September 2025 and $2.272 in September 2026, a fall of 34.9%, by our arithmetic. Multiplying DoorDash’s three-egg price by four, the reverse of its own method, gives $5.38 and $4.58 a dozen, a fall of 14.8%.
On those figures the DoorDash dozen cost about 1.4 times the BLS average in September 2024, about 1.5 times in September 2025 and about 2.0 times in September 2026, by our arithmetic. At the March 2025 peak, the BLS average was $6.23 and the DoorDash-implied dozen $7.48.
Milk moved the other way. DoorDash’s glass of milk rose 5.1%, which is about $4.31 to $4.53 a gallon on its 16-glass method. The BLS average for a gallon of whole milk went from $4.129 to $4.106, down 0.6%, by our arithmetic. The report’s item appendix, which uses the top items in each category, lists eggs at $5.85 and $5.09 (down 13.1%, as we reported earlier on Wednesday).
The Structural Read
As we read the two series, the gap is a measurement difference before it is a pricestory: DoorDash averages what grocery stores on its Marketplace charge for the eggs they list, while the BLS tracks one defined product, a dozen grade A large eggs, collected in stores.
As we read DoorDash’s release, the company presents its order and catalogue data as an economic indicator in its own right, with the same basket tracked monthly across 87 cities, from $2.43 in Richmond to $6.57 in Honolulu.
DoorDash, State of Local Commerce 2026 report
“A basket of breakfast staples costs 6.0% less than a year ago, with eggs leading the way down”
Three Implications
FOR SHOPPERS DoorDash’s basket fell from $4.20 to $3.95; eggs account for roughly 79% of the 25-cent drop, by our arithmetic from the site file.
FOR READING THE NUMBER The BLS egg price fell 34.9% over the same year; DoorDash’s fell 14.8%. The methods differ, and DoorDash does not compare the two.
FOR DOORDASH The report tracks the basket monthly from September 2024 and city by city, which the post on X then publishes as a stand-alone price signal.
The framework reads: “Each moat is built by a different data pipeline.”
As we read it, DoorDash’s price indices come from the pipeline its delivery marketplace already runs, the prices merchants list and the orders customers place, and the report turns that pipeline into published indicators. Our explainer on how DoorDash makes money sets out the marketplace behind it. The framework predates the report and does not discuss DoorDash.
What Is Not Established
In the report, release, site and post we read, DoorDash does not say which eggs (size, grade, organic or cage-free) or which milk the averages include, or whether Marketplace item prices match in-store shelf prices. It does not compare its series with the BLS or explain why its egg price fell less. The BLS series cover one defined product each, collected in stores; the gap between the two is our comparison, and the methods differ. We did not contact DoorDash or the BLS.
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DoorDash’s breakfast basket fell 6.0% to $3.95, with three eggs down 14.8%. The official BLS egg price fell 34.9% over the same year, and the DoorDash-implied dozen ended September at about 2.0 times the BLS average, up from about 1.5 times a year earlier, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. We read The Dashboard’s post on X, DoorDash’s State of Local Commerce 2026 report (PDF), its newsroom release of 10 November and the report’s data site, including the groceries file the site loads. BLS figures are the published U.S. city average prices for grade A large eggs (APU0000708111) and whole milk (APU0000709112), retrieved from the BLS public data API on 11 November.
The dozen and gallon scaling, the shares of the decline, the city ratio and every DoorDash-to-BLS comparison are our arithmetic; DoorDash and the BLS measure prices differently. We did not contact DoorDash or the BLS.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
