China exported $3.78 trillion of goods in the first 10 months of 2026 and imported $2.74 trillion, according to tables released on 10 November by the General Administration of Customs. That leaves a surplus of about $1.04 trillion, by our arithmetic, with October exports up 35.2% from a year earlier and imports up 41.6%.
Two product lines did much of the lifting. Integrated circuit exports rose 111.1% to $341.1 billion and computer exports rose 60.6% to $266.5 billion. Together they added about $280 billion, or about 40% of the roughly $700 billion rise in China’s exports, by our arithmetic from the customs tables.
Business Pill · GPUs Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on GPUs and AI hardware. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss China’s trade data.
The key insight: China exported $3.78 trillion and imported $2.74 trillion in January to October, a surplus of about $1.04 trillion by our arithmetic from the customs tables. Integrated circuits and computers added about $280 billion, about 40% of the rise in exports, by our arithmetic.
In October alone, China exported $412.3 billion and imported $307.1 billion, a monthly surplus of about $105.3 billion by our arithmetic. Over January to October, exports grew 22.7% and imports 29.0% in US dollar terms.
The export commodity table separates the two lines. Chips and computers together reached $607.6 billion, up 85% from $327.6 billion a year earlier and 16% of all exports, by our arithmetic. The computer line is GACC’s “automatic data processing equipment and parts” category.
The chip count tells a second story. GACC counts 302.03 billion integrated circuits exported in the 10 months, up only 3.2%, while their value more than doubled. Cars rose 52.2% to $169.5 billion, mobile phones 13.6% and garments 6.1%.
Export valuegrowth, January-October 2026 vs the same period of 2025, in US dollars, from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) export tables released 10 November 2026. Computers = GACC’s “automatic data processing equipment and parts”. The 40% share is our arithmetic.
The Loop Runs Both Ways
China also bought more of the same hardware. Integrated circuit imports rose 65.1% to $566.5 billion and computer imports rose 136.7% to $181.5 billion, according to the import table. The gap between chip imports and chip exports widened to $225.4 billion from $181.5 billion, by our arithmetic.
Reuters linked the surplus to “a global race to build AI infrastructure” that “buoyed sales of high-tech products and helped offset weak domestic demand.” It reported that the surplus topped $1 trillion for a second consecutive year, a month earlier than in 2025, and that October exports beat economists’ forecast of 33.5%.
“The outlook for exports depends on how long the AI boom will last,” Macquarie analysts wrote, according to Reuters. Reuters also reported that China’s surplus with the US dipped to $32.71 billion in October from $34.01 billion in September.
The surplus could fuel further tensions with the European Union, Reuters reported. “The risk of additional tariffs and other trade barriers will remain elevated in 2027,” said Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China, as quoted by Reuters.
The Structural Read
As we read it, the customs tables show the AI hardware build-out running through China’s trade in both directions: chip imports rose 65.1% and chip exports 111.1%, and Reuters linked the surplus to a global race to build AI infrastructure. The tables themselves do not name buyers or end uses.
Macquarie analysts, as quoted by Reuters
“The outlook for exports depends on how long the AI boom will last”
Three Implications
FOR CHIP AND HARDWARE SUPPLIERS China imported $566.5 billion of integrated circuits in 10 months, up 65.1%, according to GACC; Taiwan reported record exports for October.
FOR TRADE POLICY Reuters reported the surplus could fuel further tensions with the European Union, and that China’s surplus with the US dipped to $32.71 billion in October.
FOR READING THE MIX Chips and computers reached $607.6 billion, 16% of all exports, up from $327.6 billion a year earlier, by our arithmetic.
The framework says: “It’s a fundamental constraint on the speed of AI transformation, and it’s creating geopolitical leverage that operates independently of who has the best models.”
As we read it, the framework is about the physical inputs behind AI, not trade balances; we apply its idea of leverage outside modelquality to the chips and computers in China’s customs tables. The framework predates these figures and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
GACC’s tables do not say which chips or computers were shipped, who bought them, or how much went into AI data centres. The link to AI infrastructure is Reuters’ reporting, not a customs statement. Our 40% share uses a 2025 base implied by GACC’s rounded 22.7% growth rate; the result stays between 39.9% and 40.1%.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
China’s 10-month surplus reached about $1.04 trillion, by our arithmetic from the customs tables. Integrated circuits and computers supplied about 40% of the rise in exports, with chip export value up 111.1% on a chip count up 3.2%.
A note on sourcing. Trade totals and product-line figures are from the US-dollar tables of China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC), released 10 November 2026; row labels are our translation of the Chinese originals. The AI-infrastructure framing, forecasts, the US surplus and the analyst quotes are from Reuters. The surplus, the chip and computer totals, the 40% share and the chip trade gap are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
