AI, Crypto PACs Put $61.7M on Losing Side; Ohio Was 92%

AI and crypto super PACs spent $61.7 million of their general-election money on the losing side of races the Associated Press had called by 15:25Z on 4 November, by our count of Federal Election Commission filings. That is 67% of the $92.2 million they spent in called races.

One race is 92% of it. In Ohio’s Senate special election, the crypto PAC Defend American Jobs spent $56.6 million for Jon Husted and against Sherrod Brown, and AP called the seat for Brown, by our arithmetic.

Business Pill · Concentration

An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on concentration. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss the midterms or any PAC.

What Citation Needed Reported

Molly White, who writes the newsletter Citation Needed, reported on 4 November that “Crypto and AI companies spent $250 million in the midterms”. She wrote: “Of the twelve competitive races called so far, the side backed by crypto and AI super PACs lost nine”, with “$74.7 million on the losing side of those races, compared to $28.3 million on the winning side”.

White notes that her race figures cover general-election money only, so they are smaller than the $250 million spent across primaries and general races. Her count includes PACs outside our set, such as Alliance for a Better Future and Digital Freedom Fund.

What Was Posted on X

Molly White, who wrote the Citation Needed count, posted at 07:42Z that the AI group Alliance for a Better Future was 0 for 4 in Maine, Iowa, Kansas and Michigan. That group is outside the 13 committees in our own FEC count.

Brendan Pedersen posted at 04:28Z, after AP’s 04:10Z call in Ohio, on the Fairshake network and Sherrod Brown. By our count, the network’s Defend American Jobs reported $56.6 million in that race.

Our Count From the Filings

We track 13 committees: the Leading the Future network, the Public First network and the Fairshake crypto network. Ten of them filed general-election independent expenditures in the FEC’s 24- and 48-hour reports, with receipts through 30 October. We dropped superseded amendments and matched every race to AP’s results feed.

Those ten committees spent $101.0 million in 64 general-election races. AP had called 50 of the races at 15:25Z. In those 50, $61.7 million was on the losing side and $30.5 million on the winning side, by our arithmetic. Fourteen races, with $8.8 million, were uncalled.

Ohio Carries the Losing Total

AP called Ohio’s Senate special election for Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, at 04:10Z. Defend American Jobs, part of the Fairshake network, reported $36.9 million supporting Republican Jon Husted and $19.7 million opposing Brown. On the other side, the AI-focused Tomorrow Together and Guardrails Alliance reported $1.6 million opposing Husted.

Outside Ohio, the side these committees backed won 47 of the other 49 called races, by our count. The two losses were South Carolina’s Senate race and Wisconsin’s 1st District. In South Carolina, Building the Future and American Mission spent $4.1 million supporting Darline Graham; AP called it for Annie Andrews. In Wisconsin, Fairshake spent $1.0 million supporting Bryan Steil; AP called it for Mitchell Berman.

The Three Networks

Citation Needed describes Leading the Future as “OpenAI- and Andreessen Horowitz-linked” and Rutinel’s Colorado win as coming from “the Anthropic-backed, self-described “AI safety” faction of AI money”. By our arithmetic, the Leading the Future network’s side won 19 of its 20 called races; South Carolina was 47% of its called-race money. The Public First network’s side won all six of its called races, with $5.2 million. The Fairshake network’s side won 27 and lost 2 of 29 called races, with $57.6 million on the losing side.

Our overnight count found nine AI-PAC races called by 02:33Z, all won by the supported candidate. That count covered nine AI PACs only; this one adds the crypto Fairshake network, which includes the $56.6 million Ohio spending, and races AP called later.

What Happened Next

What happened next (4 Nov): by 15:25Z AP had called 50 of the 64 races where our 13 tracked AI and crypto PACs spent general-election money; $61.7 million of $92.2 million was on the losing side, 92% of it in Ohio’s Senate race, by our arithmetic.

Connecting the Coverage

This follows our overnight results count, the $81 million AI super PACs had spent before the vote, Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan win, Musk’s $216 million to America PAC and the exit poll on AI and data centers.

The Structural Read

As we read the filings, the losing total is one large crypto bet rather than a pattern across races: outside Ohio, the tracked committees’ side won 47 of 49 called races, by our count.

As we read the two counts, the overnight tally of nine AI-PAC wins and Citation Needed’s nine losses in twelve competitive races measure different sets of PACs and races; both cover general-election money only.

Three Implications

FOR THE CRYPTO NETWORK The Fairshake network’s side lost 2 of its 29 called races, with $57.6 million on the losing side, by our arithmetic.

FOR THE AI NETWORKS The Leading the Future network’s side won 19 of 20 called races and the Public First network’s side won all 6, by our count.

FOR THE COUNT STILL OPEN Fourteen races with $8.8 million of these committees’ spending were uncalled by AP at 15:25Z, by our count.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The AI Supercycle.

The framework defines its top layer, Governance, as “The rules that determine whether a model can be released, deployed, sold, or used.”

As we read it, Congress is one of the bodies that writes such rules. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss the midterms, any PAC or any candidate.

Related coverage: AI Super PACs Backed 9 Winners as AP Calls First Races

What Is Not Established

Fourteen races with $8.8 million of these committees’ spending were not called by AP at 15:25Z, including North Carolina’s 1st District, which Citation Needed lists as won by Don Davis. FEC 24- and 48-hour reports run through 30 October in this file; later spending and post-general reports, due in December, may change the totals. Our sums cover general-election spending by our 13-committee set only, not primaries or other PACs.

The Bottom Line

By our count, AI and crypto super PACs had $61.7 million on the losing side of AP-called races at 15:25Z, 67% of their called-race spending. Ohio’s Senate special election accounts for 92% of that; outside Ohio, their side won 47 of 49 called races.