Amazon put $18.0 billion of cash into Anthropic between 2023 and mid-2026, its 10-Q shows. At the $70.00 to $78.00 price range in Anthropic’s amended S-1 of 10 November, the 3,484,128,662 Class N shares behind that position are worth $243.9 billion to $271.8 billion, by our arithmetic: 13.5 to 15.1 times the cash.
The range also splits Amazon’s own books. Its preferred stock is marked at about $56.28 per as-converted share, below the bottom of the range; its convertible notes at about $79.44, above the top, by our arithmetic. At the $74.00 midpoint the preferred is worth $29.1 billion more than Amazon’s mark and the notes $10.0 billion less. These are values at the range, not a trading price.
Business Pill · Concentration Explained
Update: and Google’s stake. The same S-1/A says Google will hold 1,654,463,134 Class N shares immediately before the offering, after its preferred stock and notes convert; the filing says no Google notes remain outstanding. Google is also buying $10.0 billion of Class N stock at the IPO price in the concurrent private placement: 135,135,135 shares at the $74.00 midpoint, taking it to 1,789,598,269, the filing says. At $70.00, $74.00 and $78.00 that position is worth $125.8 billion, $132.4 billion and $139.0 billion, including the $10.0 billion placement, by our arithmetic. Added to Amazon’s 3,484,128,662 shares above, the two stakes come to $369.7 billion, $390.3 billion and $410.8 billion across the range, by our arithmetic. Google’s cash in, per the filing’s notes: $2.0 billion of 2023 notes, about $1.3 billion of 2024 notes and $10.0 billion in the May 2026 Series H, plus the $10.0 billion placement. The filing gives no single total for Google’s investment, so we do not compute a multiple. These are values at the range, not a trading price.
A short explainer on concentration. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Anthropic.
The key insight:Amazon invested $18.0 billion in Anthropic, its 10-Q shows. The 3,484,128,662 Class N shares behind that position are worth $243.9 billion to $271.8 billion at the $70.00 to $78.00 price range, 13.5 to 15.1 times the cash, by our arithmetic. Amazon’s own 30 September marks average about $68.51 a share: preferred below the range, notes above it.
Amazon’s third-quarter 10-Q lists three cash commitments. It invested $8.0 billion in Anthropic convertible notes from Q3 2023 to Q4 2025. In Q2 2026 it invested $5.0 billion in Series G nonvoting preferred stock, then exercised an option and invested $5.0 billion in Series H, which cut a $20.0 billion financing facility to $15.0 billion.
That is $18.0 billion in total, by our arithmetic. The remaining $15.0 billion facility is not cash in yet: Anthropic’s filing shows nothing outstanding under the Amazon 2026 agreement, with amounts released in $5.0 billion steps as compute capacity milestones are met.
Amazon’s 30 September 2026 book values for its Anthropic preferred stock and convertible notes (Amazon 10-Q) against their value at the $74.00 midpoint of the $70.00-$78.00 price range in Anthropic’s S-1/A of 10 November 2026. Values at the range are our arithmetic, not a trading price.
What Amazon Will Hold
Anthropic’s filing says Amazon will hold 1,920,511,218 Class N shares immediately after the offering and the concurrent private placement. Another 1,563,617,444 shares stay inside rollover notes, “all of which are held by Amazon”, because Amazon keeps its 12% cap. As we reported earlier today, Amazon “has elected not to do so in connection with this offering”.
Together that is 3,484,128,662 shares, by our arithmetic. They come from two instruments. About 1.64 billion come from Amazon’s preferred stock: the 10-Q says Amazon held 164 million preferred shares and that “Each share of nonvoting preferred stock held by us is convertible into ten shares of nonvoting common stock”. The other 1,840,444,962 come from the notes, the filing’s table shows.
The Position at the Range
At $70.00, the bottom of the range, the 3,484,128,662 shares are worth $243.9 billion; at the $74.00 midpoint $257.8 billion; at $78.00 $271.8 billion, by our arithmetic. Against the $18.0 billion invested that is 13.5, 14.3 and 15.1 times.
The shares Amazon receives at the listing, 1,920,511,218, are worth $134.4 billion to $149.8 billion across the range. The 1,563,617,444 rollover shares add $109.5 billion to $122.0 billion, by our arithmetic. Those convert only quarter by quarter as the cap allows, and the 10-Q says Amazon expects “a customary lock-up period following an IPO”.
Against Amazon’s Own Marks
Amazon carried its preferred stock at about $92.5 billion on 30 September and its notes at an estimated fair value of about $146.2 billion, the 10-Q says: $238.7 billion together, as we reported on 31 October. Per as-converted share that is about $68.51, just under the $70.00 bottom of the range, by our arithmetic.
The two marks sit on opposite sides of the range. The preferred works out to about $56.28 a share; at $70.00 to $78.00 it is worth $115.1 billion to $128.2 billion, or $22.6 billion to $35.7 billion above its mark. The notes work out to about $79.44 a share; across the range they are worth $128.8 billion to $143.6 billion, $17.4 billion to $2.6 billion below their mark, by our arithmetic.
The 10-Q explains the different methods. The notes are classified as available-for-sale and valued with inputs that include “discounts for lack of marketability”, with unrealized gains in accumulated other comprehensive income. The preferred stock is adjusted “to reflect observable changes in price related to Anthropic’s fundings”, with the adjustments recorded in “Other income (expense), net”.
What Amazon Has Already Booked
Those adjustments are large already. The 10-Q records upward adjustments of about $62.8 billion to the Anthropic preferred stock in the first nine months of 2026, plus $4.5 billion of gains reclassified when notes converted to preferred: $67.3 billion in total, by our arithmetic. Amazon’s income tax provision for the period includes $15.2 billion of net discrete tax expense primarily attributable to the Anthropic adjustments, it says.
On the notes, the unrealized gain in accumulated other comprehensive income was $140.3 billion on 30 September, up from $39.5 billion at the end of 2025, the 10-Q shows.
The Structural Read
As we read the two filings together, the price range moves Amazon’s two Anthropic instruments in opposite directions against its own books: the preferred stock, marked from funding-round prices, sits below the range, while the notes, valued with inputs that include their rights and obligations, sit above it.
As we read the 10-Q, the methods differ: the preferred is adjusted for observable price changes through other income, while gains on the notes sit in accumulated other comprehensive income.
Amazon 10-Q, Q3 2026
“Each share of nonvoting preferred stock held by us is convertible into ten shares of nonvoting common stock”
Three Implications
FOR AMAZON At the $74.00 midpoint its position is worth $257.8 billion, $19.1 billion above its $238.7 billion book value on 30 September, by our arithmetic.
FOR IPO BUYERSAmazon will hold 1,920,511,218 Class N shares after the offering and the placement, with 1,563,617,444 more inside rollover notes, the S-1/A says; Class N stock carries no vote.
FOR ANTHROPIC A further $15.0 billion under the Amazon 2026 agreement becomes available in $5.0 billion steps as compute capacity milestones are met, the S-1/A says.
The framework argues: “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle. It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing”.
As we read it, Amazon’s Anthropic position is one ledger of that financing: $18.0 billion of cash in, per its 10-Q, and 3.48 billion shares out, per Anthropic’s filing. The framework predates both filings and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
The final share counts depend on the final offering size, Anthropic’s filing says, and the $70.00 to $78.00 range is an estimate, not a price at which the shares have traded. Our values ignore the cap’s timing, the lock-up and any discount for selling a large block. Neither filing says how Amazon will mark the position after the listing. Earlier coverage: the $70-$78 range and the $26 billion placement.
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Amazon’s $18.0 billion in Anthropic converts to 3,484,128,662 Class N shares, worth $243.9 billion to $271.8 billion at the price range, 13.5 to 15.1 times the cash, by our arithmetic. Amazon’s own 30 September marks average about $68.51 a share: its preferred sits below the range and its notes above it.
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A note on sourcing. Figures are from Anthropic’s S-1/A filed with the SEC on 10 November 2026 and Amazon’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026. Values at the $70.00-$78.00 range, totals, multiples and per-share marks are our arithmetic; the range is an estimate, not a trading price. Amazon and Anthropic were not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
