Anthropic filed its price range on 10 November: 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78, in an amended S-1 accepted by the SEC at 11:29 UTC. On the 13,086,672,593 shares the filing says will be outstanding after the IPO and a $26 billion placement, the $74 midpoint values Anthropic at $968.4 billion, by our arithmetic. That is $3.4 billion, or 0.35%, above the $965 billion valuation of its May funding round.
Across the range, the filed share count gives $917 billion at $70 and $1.02 trillion at $78, by our arithmetic. Count every option and unvested stock award as well and it is $1.12 trillion to $1.24 trillion. On the fully diluted base our earlier pieces used, it is $1.27 trillion to $1.41 trillion.
Business Pill · Financial Conditions Explained
A short explainer on financial conditions. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss this story.
The key insight: Anthropic’s S-1/A of 10 November files 825 million shares at $70 to $78 and says 13,086,672,593 shares will be outstanding after the IPO and a $26 billion placement. On that count the $74 midpoint is $968.4 billion, 0.35% above the $965 billion May mark, and the range is $917 billion to $1.02 trillion, by our arithmetic.
The S-1/A, Amendment No. 2, says: “We are selling 801,351,354 shares of Class A common stock and the selling stockholders identified in this prospectus are selling an additional 23,648,646 shares of Class A common stock”. The range is “between $70.00 and $78.00”, the symbol is “ANT” on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, and the underwriters have an option on “up to an additional 123,750,000 shares”. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the representatives of the underwriters.
Anthropic announced the roadshow the same morning with the same share split. At $70 to $78 the 825 million shares raise $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion. Anthropic’s own 801.35 million shares bring it $56.09 billion to $62.51 billion before fees, and the selling holders get $1.66 billion to $1.84 billion, all by our arithmetic.
Seven companies have agreed to buy “an aggregate of $26.0 billion of our Class N common stock in a private placement at a price per share equal to the initial public offering price”. At the $74 midpoint the filing gives Google and NVIDIA 135,135,135 shares each for about $10.0 billion, AMD about $2.5 billion, Broadcom, Micron and Microsoft about $1.0 billion each, and TSMC about $500 million.
Our placement piece covers the non-voting stock they get. The filing puts net proceeds from the IPO and placement at about $84.6 billion at the midpoint.
Anthropic’s implied value at the $70 bottom and $78 top of the range in its S-1/A of 10 November, on three share counts: the 13.09 billion shares the filing says will be outstanding; that count plus all options and RSUs; and the 16.94 billion fully diluted shares at 30 June plus the new IPO and placement shares. Placement shares are $26 billion divided by the price. All values are our arithmetic from the filing.
What Was Posted on X
Anthropic’s IPO offers 825M shares at $70-$78 each, raising up to $64.4B, plus a $26B private placement.
That would value it at $917B to $1.02T, based on the 13.1B shares its filing says will be outstanding.
Including options and unvested stock awards, that’s $1.12T to $1.24T.
Wall St Engine posted at 11:41 UTC on 10 November that the IPO would value Anthropic at $917B to $1.02T, โbased on the 13.1B shares its filing says will be outstandingโ, and at $1.12T to $1.24T including options and unvested stock awards. The ranges are the posterโs calculation.
FT: Anthropicโs bankers plan to raise its IPO price after heavy investor demand, lifting the target valuation back to $1.5T or more.
Tuesdayโs filing set a $70-$78 share range, implying $1.26T to $1.41T once employee options and restricted shares are counted.
Pricing above that range would push proceeds past $100B, including $26B that Google, Nvidia and Microsoft will invest at the IPO price.
Three backers say Anthropic now cares more about raising cash than maximizing valuation, because it plans about $900B of compute and infrastructure spending.
Rohan Paul posted at 00:58 UTC on 11 November a summary of a Financial Times report: that Anthropicโs bankers plan to raise the IPO price after heavy investor demand, lifting the target valuation back to $1.5 trillion or more; that the filed $70 to $78 range implies $1.26 trillion to $1.41 trillion once employee options and restricted shares are counted; and that pricing above the range would push proceeds past $100 billion, including the $26 billion placement. The post also says three backers told the FT that Anthropic cares more about raising cash than maximising valuation. These are the FTโs claims as relayed by the poster; we have not read the FT article.
The Share Count, Class by Class
The filing lists 7,427,991,791 Class A shares and 5,658,680,800 Class N shares to be outstanding after the offering and placement, plus one Class T share, one Class F share and no Class E shares: 13,086,672,593 in all. The Class N figure includes the 846,840,960 shares Anthropic gave its Public Benefit Fund, which the filing says are “considered legally outstanding” but are not counted for accounting purposes while the fund is a subsidiary.
That total excludes 1,774,342,693 shares under options with a weighted-average exercise price of $2.91, 1,026,660,010 shares under RSUs that do not vest by 19 November, and 47,041,287 shares under RSUs granted after 30 September. It also leaves out 1,563,617,444 Class N shares for rollover notes and shares reserved under plans.
The placement count moves with the price. $26 billion buys 371.4 million shares at $70 and 333.3 million at $78, against the 351,351,348 the filing assumes at $74. So the total is about 13.107 billion shares at $70 and 13.069 billion at $78, by our arithmetic, holding the filing’s $74 assumption for its RSU settlement.
Update (10 Nov): Reuters and The New York Times put the top at $1.4 trillion.
Reuters reported: “At the top of the price range, Anthropic would be valued at about $1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis, which includes securities such as stock options and restricted stock. On a non-diluted basis, excluding those securities, Anthropic’s market value would be about $1 trillion.” The New York Times headlined its report “Anthropic Targets Valuation of Up to $1.4 Trillion for Blockbuster I.P.O.”
Both match the counts below: about $1.02 trillion at $78 on the shares the filing says will be outstanding, and $1.41 trillion at $78 on the fully diluted base, by our arithmetic. The difference is about $389 billion at the same $78 price, by our arithmetic; of that, the 2.85 billion shares under options and stock awards in the filing account for about $222 billion. Reuters did not publish the share count behind its figure.
Why it matters: the $1 trillion and $1.4 trillion headlines describe the same price per share. The gap is how many shares are counted, so a buyer comparing Anthropic with listed peers should check which base each figure uses.
Update (11 Nov, 00:28 GMT): the FT says bankers may lift the valuation. The Financial Times headlined a report “Anthropic bankers prepare to increase IPO valuation to $1.5tn or more” (headline). The article is paywalled and we have read only the headline, so any new price range, its timing and the share count behind the figure are not established here. As of our 00:45 GMT check, Anthropic had filed no new amendment with the SEC since the 10 November S-1/A.
Our arithmetic: on the fully diluted base this piece uses (16.94 billion shares at 30 June plus the 801,351,354 new IPO shares, with the $26 billion placement counted at its dollar value), $1.5 trillion works out to about $83.08 a share, about 6.5% above the filed $78 top. The same formula gives about $1.41 trillion at $78.
The FT headline does not say which share count its figure uses, so the price it implies may differ.
Update (11 Nov): more of the FT report, as summarised on X. A post by Rohan Paul summarising the Financial Times report says Anthropic’s bankers plan to raise the IPO price after heavy investor demand. It says the filed $70 to $78 range implies $1.26 trillion to $1.41 trillion once employee options and restricted shares are counted, and that pricing above the range would push proceeds past $100 billion, including the $26 billion placement. The post also says three backers told the FT that Anthropic now cares more about raising cash than maximising valuation, because it plans about $900 billion of compute and infrastructure spending.
We have not read the FT article body. These are the FT’s reported claims as relayed in the post, not established facts; the backers’ view in particular is unverified here.
Our arithmetic: the S-1/A offers 825 million shares, and the placement is fixed at $26 billion. For total proceeds to pass $100 billion, the IPO itself would have to raise more than $74 billion, which at 825 million shares means a price above about $89.70 a share, roughly 15% over the filed $78 top, unless the share count changes. The FT’s $1.26 trillion low end sits close to the $1.27 trillion fully diluted figure this piece gives at $70.
Three Share Counts, Three Valuations
On the filed outstanding count, $70 to $78 is $917.5 billion to $1,019.4 billion, by our arithmetic. Each $1 on the IPO price is worth about $13.1 billion of company value. The bottom is 4.9% below the $965 billion May mark, which CNBC reports Anthropic announced with that round, and the top is 5.6% above it.
Adding the 2.85 billion shares under all options and RSUs gives about 15.95 billion shares at $70 and 15.92 billion at $78, or $1.117 trillion to $1.242 trillion, by our arithmetic. Wall St Engine posted the same two ranges at 11:41 UTC, $917 billion to $1.02 trillion and $1.12 trillion to $1.24 trillion; our arithmetic from the filing reproduces both.
The filing also says the 846,840,960 Public Benefit Fund shares were “5% of our fully diluted shares as of June 30, 2026”, assuming full conversion of the Amazon notes. That is 16.94 billion fully diluted shares before the IPO, the base our share-count piece used. Add the 801.35 million new shares and the placement shares and the range is $1.27 trillion to $1.41 trillion, by our arithmetic. CNBC put the fully diluted top at up to $1.405 trillion.
On that same fully diluted method, the retracted copy gave $1.27 trillion to $1.45 trillion. The filed $78 top takes about $40 billion off its upper end, by our arithmetic.
Against the Retracted Copy
The copy Anthropic sent bankers and then said had inaccurate pricing details showed 866.7 million shares at $70 to $80, up to $69.3 billion, Reuters reported. The filing confirms the later Reuters-reported draft: 825 million shares at $70 to $78. That is 41.7 million fewer shares (4.8%) and about $5.0 billion, or 7.2%, less at the top, by our arithmetic.
On the league table we built this morning, $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion is 67.0% to 74.6% of the $86.25 billion SpaceX raised in June, and 1.96 to 2.19 times Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion, by our arithmetic.
What New Buyers Pay
The filing’s dilution table shows existing holders paid an average of $11.50 a share for 11.93 billion shares, against $74.00 for new buyers. That is 6.4 times, by our arithmetic. The filing puts the dilution to new buyers at “$65.79 per share” of net tangible book value at the midpoint. After the selling holders’ shares, new investors hold 825 million shares, “approximately 6.3%” of the Class A and Class N stock outstanding, the filing says.
The $70 bottom is within 4 cents of the $70.04 a share that Anthropic’s own option values implied at 30 September, as our earlier piece showed.
The Structural Read
As we read the filing, the headline value depends on the share count more than on the price: moving from $70 to $78 adds about $102 billion on outstanding shares, while moving from outstanding to fully diluted shares adds about $350 billion at $70, by our arithmetic.
As we read the two copies, the filing confirms the later Reuters-reported draft rather than the retracted one: same 825 million shares and $78 top, with 801,351,354 new shares and 23,648,646 sold by holders.
Anthropic S-1/A, Amendment No. 2, 10 November 2026
“It is currently estimated that the initial public offering price per share will be between $70.00 and $78.00”
Three Implications
FOR IPO BUYERS The filing puts dilution at $65.79 a share of net tangible book value at the $74 midpoint; existing holders paid an average of $11.50 a share, 6.4 times less, by our arithmetic.
FOR THE VALUATION MARKS The $74 midpoint is 0.35% above the $965 billion May mark CNBC reports; the filed $78 top is about $40 billion below the retracted copy’s fully diluted top, by our arithmetic.
FOR THE SHARE COUNT Our earlier pieces used 16.94 billion fully diluted shares at 30 June; the filing’s outstanding count after the IPO is 13.09 billion, and both figures are in the filing.
The framework argues: “That is the structural read, and it changes the valuation logic at every layer beneath it.”
As we read it, the filing puts that logic into share counts: the same $70 to $78 range is $917 billion to $1.02 trillion on outstanding shares and $1.27 trillion to $1.41 trillion fully diluted, by our arithmetic. The framework predates the filing and does not discuss it.
What Is Not Established
The filing leaves the underwriting discount blank and gives no pricing date; Anthropic’s post gives none either. Its RSU arithmetic assumes vesting “as of November 19, 2026”. The Wall Street Journal reported on 9 November that Anthropic aims for trading on 19 or 20 November, as our timetable piece covers; the dates are not in a filing. The full picture is in our Anthropic IPO map, and our registration-fee piece covers the earlier S-1/A.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Anthropic has filed 825 million shares at $70 to $78. On the 13.09 billion shares the filing says will be outstanding, the midpoint is $968.4 billion, $3.4 billion above the May round’s $965 billion, by our arithmetic. Which count you use moves the answer from $917 billion to $1.41 trillion.
95,000+ executives read Business Engineer for the AI strategy frameworks cited by ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity.
A note on sourcing. The offering terms, share counts, placement, proceeds and dilution figures are from Anthropic’s S-1/A, Amendment No. 2, filed with the SEC on 10 November 2026, read in full on EDGAR, and from Anthropic’s roadshow announcement. The retracted copy’s terms are from Reuters’ reports of 10 November. The $965 billion May valuation is as CNBC reported it. Wall St Engine’s ranges are quoted from its post on X. All valuations, share totals at each price, changes and ratios are our arithmetic. Anthropic was not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
