Tesla Robotaxi, LLC had 1,302 automated motor vehicles listed in the Texas DMV’s public lookup at 07:53 UTC on 11 November, five more than Waymo LLC’s 1,297, by our reading of the state’s data. Sawyer Merritt posted the same two numbers on X on 10 November, writing that Tesla “has just officially surpassed Waymo in the total number of robotaxis registered to date in Texas for the first time”.
Our decoding of every listed VIN with the federal NHTSA vPIC decoder shows 573 of Tesla’s 1,302 vehicles, or 44%, are Cybercabs and 729 are Model Ys. Waymo’s 1,297 are 874 Jaguar I-PACEs and 423 Zeekr RTs, 33% of its list, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Physical AI Explained
A short explainer on physical AI, software that acts in the real world. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss the Texas list.
The key insight:Tesla Robotaxi, LLC had 1,302 automated motor vehicles on the Texas DMV list at 07:53 UTC on 11 November, five more than Waymo LLC’s 1,297, by our reading of the state’s data. By our decoding of the VINs, 573 of Tesla’s, or 44%, are Cybercabs; in May, TechCrunch reported Tesla had 42 registered against Waymo’s 577.
The lookup is part of the Texas Motor Carrier Credentialing System. TechCrunch reported that it comes from “a new law that requires AV companies to register with the DMV”, which took effect on 28 May and requires companies “to share how many vehicles are in their fleets as well as other safety information”.
The state lists both companies as authorized: Waymo LLC of Mountain View, California, since 5 May 2026, and Tesla Robotaxi, LLC at 1 Tesla Road, Austin, since 14 May 2026. Each entry carries a vehicle list of VINs; we read all 2,599, found no duplicates within either list, and ran every one through the vPIC decoder.
Automated motor vehicles listed per company in the Texas DMV lookup at 07:53 UTC on 11 November 2026, split by model from our NHTSA vPIC decoding of all 2,599 VINs; the 28 May marks are TechCrunch’s counts.
What Was Posted on X
Tesla has just officially surpassed Waymo in the total number of robotaxis registered to date in Texas for the first time.
Sawyer Merritt posted at 23:17 UTC on 10 November that Tesla had surpassed Waymo in robotaxis registered in Texas, 1,302 to 1,297, and that Tesla had just added another 20 Model Ys. His post shows a photo of Cybercabs and names no data source; this piece checks his two counts against the Texas DMV lookup itself.
From 42 Vehicles to 1,302
When the tool launched, TechCrunch reported on 28 May that “Alphabet-owned Waymo has registered 577 autonomous vehicles in Texas, followed by Avride with 317, and Nuro with 47”, and that Tesla “has registered 42 autonomous vehicles”. By our arithmetic, Tesla’s list has grown 31 times since then and Waymo’s 2.25 times.
Drive Tesla Canada reported a 9 November reading from the tracker site robotaxitracker.com of 1,282 for Tesla and 1,285 for Waymo. Against today’s state data, that is 20 more for Tesla and 12 more for Waymo, by our arithmetic. Merritt wrote that “Tesla just added another 20 Model Ys”; a single reading of the list cannot show which vehicles were added when.
The vPIC decoder identifies the 5YJAJEEU vehicles as a 2026 Tesla “Cybercab” built in Austin, and the 7SAYGDEE vehicles as a 2026 Model Y built in Fremont, California. Every one of Tesla’s 1,302 VINs carries the 2026 model-year code.
Waymo’s list is older and more mixed. Its Jaguar I-PACEs, built in Graz, Austria, carry 2024 (782) and 2021 (92) model-year codes. Its Zeekr vehicles, which vPIC names “RT” and places in Ningbo, China, carry 2026 (384) and 2025 (39) codes. By our arithmetic, 30% of Waymo’s list is model year 2026, against 100% of Tesla’s.
The Structural Read
As we read it, the two lists are built differently: every Tesla vehicle carries a 2026 model-year code and 44% are a purpose-built robotaxi, while Waymo’s list leans on Jaguar I-PACEs with 2024 and 2021 codes and adds Zeekr RTs.
As we read the state data, a registration is capacity put on file, not rides delivered: the list says nothing about how many of these vehicles carry paying passengers, which is the comparison riders and investors care about.
Sawyer Merritt on X, 10 November 2026
“Tesla just added another 20 Model Ys”
Three Implications
FOR TESLA By our decoding, 573 of its 1,302 listed vehicles are Cybercabs that vPIC places in Austin, all with 2026 model-year codes.
FOR WAYMO By our decoding, 423 of its 1,297 listed vehicles are Zeekr RTs that vPIC places in Ningbo, China, 33% of its list.
FOR THE COUNT TechCrunch reported Waymo at 577 and Tesla at 42 on 28 May; by our arithmetic, Tesla’s list is 31 times that size and Waymo’s 2.25 times.
The framework argues: “In any product cycle, there are two curves to follow. The first is what your underlying technology can do. The second is what your users can actually do with it.”
As we read it, the Texas list tracks a middle curve: vehicles a company has put on file with the state. It runs ahead of the second curve, rides riders can actually take, which the list does not measure. The framework predates this story and does not discuss Tesla or Waymo.
What Is Not Established
The list counts vehicles registered with the state, not vehicles in service or carrying paying riders, as Drive Tesla Canada also notes. It does not show when each vehicle was added, so the claim that this is the first time Tesla is ahead rests on Merritt’s post and on the earlier readings we cite, all of which had Waymo ahead. Neither Tesla nor Waymo was contacted for this piece.
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On the Texas DMV’s own list, Tesla Robotaxi, LLC now has 1,302 automated vehicles to Waymo LLC’s 1,297, up from 42 against 577 in May. By our decoding, 573 of Tesla’s are Cybercabs, 44% of its list, while 423 of Waymo’s, 33%, are Zeekr RTs.
A note on sourcing. We read the Texas DMV’s public automated motor vehicle lookup directly, through the same public data service its web page uses, at 07:53 UTC on 11 November 2026, including both companies’ full VIN lists, and decoded all 2,599 VINs with NHTSA’s vPIC decoder. The May counts are TechCrunch’s; the 9 November tracker reading is Drive Tesla Canada’s. Gaps, shares and growth multiples are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
