The chances of passage for the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act have fallen to 25% versus 40% before the election, according to investment firm TD Cowen, Reuters reported on 9 November. The bill would require large data center operators to bear more of the cost of grid upgrades needed to serve them.
The measure, due to come before the Senate for debate on Monday, would also speed approvals for new power plants and transmission lines. TD Cowen’s change is a 15-point drop, or a 37.5% cut in its estimated odds, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Who Pays for the Grid
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on grid cost allocation. It teaches the general idea only and does not describe this bill or its odds.
The key insight: TD Cowen puts the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act’s chance of passage at 25%, down from 40% before the election, according to Reuters: a 15-point drop, or a 37.5% cut, by our arithmetic.
Reuters describes the bill as Congress’ first test of how to tackle public anger over data centers and rising electricity costs. Besides shifting grid costs onto large data center operators, the legislation would establish protections designed to prevent households, businesses and other utility customers from being left with the bill if projects fail.
The Congressional Research Service summary, as we reported in Senate Sets Monday Test for Bill Making Data Centers Pay, says the bill includes “directing FERC to establish ratepayer protections related to certain large computational loads (e.g. data centers)”.
TD Cowen’s estimated chance of passage for the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, before and after the 3 November election, as reported by Reuters on 9 November 2026. The 15-point and 37.5% figures are our arithmetic.
Who Backs It and Who Doubts It
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, the top Democrat on the Senate’s environment committee and one of the bill’s authors, told Reuters: “Democrats ran and won on affordability and data center accountability, and BAAJA will allow us to start delivering immediately on both of those election promises.” He added: “We’d be silly not to take this win.”
Jeremy Harrell, chief executive of ClearPath Action, a conservative clean energy advocacy group, said “The language that’s in BAAJA that’s focused on data centers is a good first step.” President Donald Trump, who has endorsed the bill, highlighted its data center provisions on Sunday. The Data Center Coalition, an industry trade group, has not endorsed the bill, Reuters said.
Opposition comes from environmental and tribal groups who say the legislation weakens environmental reviews and undermines tribal sovereignty. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Politico on Friday that the bill falls short on environmental protections and needs input from House Democrats, according to Reuters. Senator Ron Wyden said Democrats should use their leverage after the election to negotiate a different approach.
The bill’s authors unveiled a package of amendments on Saturday to address some concerns, but several environmental groups, including the Sierra Club, said the changes would not resolve their objections, Reuters reported.
The Emissions Estimate
Rhodium Group found that the bill’s transmission and permitting reforms could allow more data center demand to be served through an increasingly clean grid rather than dedicated gas-fired plants, reducing associated greenhouse-gas emissions by 31% to 90%, depending on the mix of power sources, according to Reuters.
As we read Reuters’ account, the bill’s data center provisions are drawing support from both a Democratic author, Senator Whitehouse, and a conservative clean energy group, ClearPath Action, while its environmental review changes draw the opposition.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, to Reuters, 9 November 2026
“We’d be silly not to take this win.”
Three Implications
FOR DATA CENTER OPERATORS The bill would require large data center operators to bear more of the cost of grid upgrades needed to serve them, according to Reuters.
FOR UTILITY CUSTOMERS Reuters says the legislation would establish protections designed to prevent households, businesses and other utility customers from being left with the bill if projects fail.
The framework says: “But infrastructure reality is catching up with AI ambitions: a projected 19GW gap between new data center demand and available grid capacity threatens to deflate the AI bubble.”
As we read it, the bill is one attempt to decide who pays to close that gap: under its terms, large data center operators would bear more of the grid upgrade cost, according to Reuters.
What Is Not Established
TD Cowen’s 25% is an estimate, not a vote count. Reuters did not say how the Senate will vote on Monday, and the Data Center Coalition did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
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TD Cowen puts the bill’s chances at 25%, down from 40% before the election, as the Senate takes up a measure that would make large data centers pay more of their grid costs, according to Reuters.
A note on sourcing. This piece is based on Reuters’ report of 9 November 2026, read in full, and our earlier coverage of the bill. The 25% and 40% passage odds are TD Cowen estimates as reported by Reuters; the 15-point and 37.5% figures are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
