Nebius reports its third-quarter results on Thursday, 12 November, before the US market opens, according to its date announcement. Its shares closed at $134.00 on 10 November, 53.3% below their $286.69 record close of 18 June, by our arithmetic on Nasdaq’s historical data.
On the 271,855,218 shares Nebius reported outstanding at 30 June, that fall is about $41.5 billion of market value, by our arithmetic: from about $77.9 billion at the June close to about $36.4 billion at the 10 November close.
Business Pill · Run-Rate Revenue Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on run-rate revenue. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nebius.
The key insight: As we read it, Thursday’s report tests two things at once: whether revenue is on the path its own guide implies, $2.02 billion to $2.42 billion in the second half by our arithmetic, and whether that can matter to a stock that has lost about $41.5 billion of market value since June on its June share count.
The 5 November close of $120.37 was the lowest since 7 April, when the shares closed at $117.40, in the Nasdaq data. The stock has since recovered to $134.00, which is still 55.3% below the intraday high of $299.86 set on 22 June, by our arithmetic.
Nebius sold 12.7 million Class A shares “at a weighted-average price of $223.6 per share” through its at-the-market programme up to 30 June, raising about $2.8 billion, its second-quarter letter says. The last close is 40% below that average, by our arithmetic.
Nebius (NBIS) daily closing price from 1 April to 10 November 2026, from Nasdaq historical data. The record close was $286.69 on 18 June; the 10 November close of $134.00 is 53.3% lower, by our arithmetic.
What Nebius Has Guided
On the second-quarter call, chief financial officer Dado Alonso said: “We continue to expect annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion, group revenue of between $3 billion and $3.4 billion, group adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40%, and capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion”, according to a transcript published by The Motley Fool.
The letter says annualized run-rate revenue, Nebius AI cloudrevenue from the last month of the quarter multiplied by 12, “reached $3.0 billion” in the second quarter. It also says: “We are reaffirming our full-year 2026 guidance across all metrics”.
Nebius group revenue in the first two quarters of 2026 (Q1 is the first-half total minus Q2, our arithmetic) against the average second-half quarter implied by its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion full-year revenue guide. The even split is our simplification, not Nebius guidance.
Our Numbers
Nebius’s second-quarter release gives group revenue of $582.3 million for the quarter and $981.3 million for the first half. Subtracting, first-quarter revenue was $399.0 million, by our arithmetic.
To reach the $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion revenue guide, second-half revenue must be $2.02 billion to $2.42 billion, by our arithmetic: 2.1 to 2.5 times the first half. Split evenly, which is our simplification, that is about $1.01 billion to $1.21 billion a quarter, against $582.3 million in the second quarter.
As we read the guide, the second half carries most of the year: Nebius’s $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion revenue range needs 2.1 to 2.5 times the first half’s $981.3 million, by our arithmetic, and the CFO tied that to capacity coming online in the second half.
As we read the share sales, the at-the-market programme raised about $2.8 billion at an average of $223.6 a share; at $134.00, the same number of shares would raise about 40% less, by our arithmetic.
Dado Alonso, chief financial officer, on the Q2 2026 call (transcript by The Motley Fool)
“We continue to expect annualized run rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion, group revenue of between $3 billion and $3.4 billion, group adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40%, and capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion”
Three Implications
REVENUE Second-half revenue of $2.02 billion to $2.42 billion is what the full-year guide implies, by our arithmetic, after $981.3 million in the first half.
RUN RATE The letter put annualized run-rate revenue at $3.0 billion in the second quarter, against the $7 billion to $9 billion the CFO said Nebius expects.
SHARES Nebius reported 271,855,218 shares outstanding at 30 June; the at-the-market programme had 12.3 million shares remaining, the letter says.
The framework says: “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle. It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing.”
As we read it, Nebius shows the financing side in its own documents: a $20 billion to $25 billion capex guide funded in part by share sales whose price has fallen by more than half since June. The framework predates these figures and does not discuss Nebius.
What Is Not Established
Nebius has not said how its revenue will divide between the third and fourth quarters, and the even split above is ours, not a forecast. We did not use analyst consensus estimates, because we did not read a named source for them.
The market-value figures use the share count at 30 June; Nebius may have issued shares since then through its at-the-market programme, which would change the totals. Nasdaq’s prices are closing prices up to 10 November.
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Nebius goes into Thursday’s report 53.3% below its June record close, about $41.5 billion of market value on its June share count by our arithmetic, while its own guide needs second-half revenue of $2.02 billion to $2.42 billion, more than double the first half.
A note on sourcing. We read Nebius’s 30 October announcement of its results date, its second-quarter 2026 results release and shareholder letter, and The Motley Fool’s transcript of the second-quarter call. Share prices are Nasdaq’s official daily closes up to 10 November 2026. The percentage falls, market values, first-quarter revenue and the second-half revenue range are our arithmetic, not Nebius guidance. We did not use analyst estimates. No company was contacted for this piece. This is not investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
