Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in the company’s 29 October results release that AWS has “projected revenuegrowth rates of over 40% both in 2027 and in 2028”.
In the same release, Amazon said it continues to expect 2026 cash capital expenditures of “approximately $220 billion”. By our arithmetic, that leaves about $44.3 billion for the fourth quarter, after $77.3 billion in the third.
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The key insight: By our arithmetic, Amazon’s guide of approximately $220 billion of 2026 cash capex leaves about $44.3 billion for the fourth quarter, after $77.3 billion in the third, while Jassy projected AWS revenuegrowth of over 40% in both 2027 and 2028.
The full sentence in the release reads: “Our AWS investment in functionality and infrastructure is working, with over 39% year-over-year revenuegrowth in Q3 ($184 billion revenue run rate) and projected revenuegrowth rates of over 40% both in 2027 and in 2028”.
This is a projection by Amazon, not a reported result. The release’s fourth-quarter guidance section gives consolidated net sales and operating income only, with no AWS line.
As an illustration only, not a forecast: by our arithmetic, applying 40% twice to the $184 billion run rate gives about $257.6 billion and then about $360.6 billion. A run rate is the current quarter multiplied by four, so these figures are not annual revenue.
Amazon purchases of property and equipment by quarter: $39.5 billion (Q4 2025), $44.2 billion, $54.2 billion and $77.3 billion (Q1-Q3 2026). The Q4 2026 bar is our arithmetic: the ~$220 billion 2026 guide minus the first nine months. Sources: Amazon quarterly results releases.
The New Agreements Amazon Listed
The release says Amazon “Signed new AWS agreements with Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Salesforce, Oracle, Qualcomm, Verizon, ADP, Stripe, Accenture Edge, Novo, Fanatics, Zoom, Raymond James” and others. It gives no contract values or terms.
What the $220 Billion Leaves for the Fourth Quarter
Amazon’s cash flow statement shows purchases of property and equipment of $175,670 million in the first nine months of 2026, including $77,259 million in the third quarter. By our arithmetic, $220 billion minus $175.7 billion is about $44.3 billion for the fourth quarter.
The release does not say whether the $220 billion is measured before or after proceeds from property and equipment sales and incentives, which were $3,482 million in the nine months. On that net basis, the remainder is about $47.8 billion. Either way, it is below the third quarter’s $77.3 billion.
Against Google and Microsoft
Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi said on her company’s 28 October call that its “full-year 2026 capex guidance range of $195-$205 billion remains unchanged”, and that Google Cloud’s backlog was $561 billion. Our piece on Alphabet’s commitments set out that backlog.
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said in her prepared remarks: “In Q2, we expect CapEx spend will be over $50 billion. Therefore, for the calendar year, spend should be approximately $170 billion”.
By our arithmetic, the three 2026 guides add up to about $590 billion, using the midpoint of Alphabet’s range. Microsoft’s figure is for the calendar year, not its fiscal year. Our capstone compared Google and Microsoft; our results piece has Amazon’s quarter, and our preview set the markers.
The Structural Read
As we read the release, the forward AWS figure is a growth rate only: Amazon gives no AWS backlog and no contract values for the agreements it lists.
By our arithmetic, the first nine months of 2026 account for about 80% of the $220 billion guide ($175.7 billion of $220 billion).
As we read the three CFO statements side by side, Amazon and Alphabet kept their 2026 capex guides, and Microsoft’s CFO tied her calendar-year figure of approximately $170 billion to third-party capacity delays.
“projected revenuegrowth rates of over 40% both in 2027 and in 2028”
Three Implications
FOR AWS CUSTOMERS The release lists new AWS agreements with Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Salesforce, Oracle and others, without values or terms.
FOR INVESTORS By our arithmetic, the remainder of the $220 billion guide is about $44.3 billion gross or about $47.8 billion net of proceeds, against $77.3 billion of third-quarter purchases.
FOR RIVALS Alphabet kept its 2026 capex range at $195 billion to $205 billion, and Microsoft’s CFO put calendar 2026 spend at approximately $170 billion.
The framework sets out to map the financing of AI: “How the money flows, where it cracks, what it buys, who can absorb it, and what happens when revenue can’t catch up.”
As we read it, Amazon’s guide is a “what it buys” data point: a fixed 2026 spending figure set against a projected growth rate for AWS. The framework was published in May 2026 and does not discuss this quarter.
Update (29 Oct, call): On the earnings call, Jassy said Amazon expects to spend “meaningfully more” on capex in 2027, according to a FirstSquawk newswire headline. An X account that posts call excerpts, @TheTranscript_, quoted him as saying: “We still expect 2026 cash capex of ~$220 billion, the majority for AWS, and expect to spend meaningfully more in 2027 with a clear line of sight to attractive financial returns as I laid out on our last call.” Amazon had not published a transcript when we added this. On the same call, he said Amazon intends to make Trainium available outside of AWS late in 2027; our piece on that has the details.
Also on the call (29 Oct): visibility into 2029. Asked why AWS can project growth so far out, Jassy said the largest blocks of capacity customers take, “the hundreds of megawatts or sometimes up to a gigawatt of capacity”, are “reserved well in advance”, so “we have very good visibility into ’27 and ’28 and some of ’29 too”, according to excerpts posted on X by @firesidealpha. @TheTranscript_ quoted him as saying that “to be projecting growing over 40% year over year in each of 2027 and 2028 is pretty significant”, and, asked about slower quarter-on-quarter growth, that “the amount that we add every quarter is not equal”. @pequityresearch summarised the same exchange as Amazon “seeing some visibility in 2029 now for demand”. These are excerpts relayed by X accounts; Amazon had not published a transcript when we added this.
What Is Not Established
Jassy’s 2027 and 2028 growth rates are Amazon’s projection, and the release gives no AWS backlog, no contract values and no definition of the $220 billion. The fourth-quarter remainder and the illustrations are our arithmetic from the release, not Amazon guidance for the quarter.
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Jassy projected AWS revenuegrowth of over 40% in both 2027 and 2028, and Amazon kept its 2026 cash capex guide at about $220 billion, which by our arithmetic leaves about $44.3 billion for the fourth quarter.
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A note on sourcing. Amazon figures and quotations come from Amazon’s Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 29 October 2026) and its earlier quarterly releases. The Alphabet and Microsoft quotes come from their CFOs’ 28 October earnings-call remarks. The fourth-quarter remainder, the run-rate illustration and the combined guide are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
