China made up 25% of Applied Materials’ fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, $2,642 million of $10,409 million, down from 29% a year earlier, according to the company’s 12 November earnings release. Taiwan, at $2,916 million, was the larger region.
China revenue still grew 35% from a year earlier. Revenue from everywhere else grew 61%, from $4,836 million to $7,767 million, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Concentration
A short explainer on how a few big pieces can make up a total. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Applied Materials.
The key insight: As we read the geography table, Applied’s growth this quarter came mostly from outside China: revenue there rose 61% against 35% in China, by our arithmetic, and Taiwan became the larger region.
China’s share of quarterly revenue, as printed in Applied’s releases, was 31%, 25%, 35% and 29% across fiscal 2025, and 30%, 27%, 28% and 25% across fiscal 2026. The fourth quarter matches the second quarter of fiscal 2025 as the lowest of those eight.
For the full year, China was $9,330 million, or 27% of revenue, up 9% in dollars. It was 30% in fiscal 2025 and 37% in fiscal 2024, per the fiscal 2025 release. Revenue outside China grew 27% in fiscal 2026, by our arithmetic.
Applied Materials revenue by region as a share of the quarter, Q4 FY25 vs Q4 FY26. Source: the company’s 8-K earnings release; Other = Japan, Southeast Asia and Europe, our sum.
Taiwan Passes China in the Quarter
Taiwan was 28% of fourth-quarter revenue and China 25%. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, China was 29% and Taiwan 27%. In each of the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, China’s share was equal to or above Taiwan’s, by our reading of the releases.
Korea was $1,811 million, or 17%, and the United States $1,320 million, or 13%, roughly double the $655 million of a year earlier. The presentation lists record Korea and Taiwan revenue. Taiwan’s own exports hit a record in data we reported on 9 November.
For the year China was still the largest region, at $9,330 million against Taiwan’s $8,818 million.
China’s share of Applied Materials’ quarterly revenue, Q1 FY25 to Q4 FY26, as printed in each 8-K earnings release.
Export Controls as Applied States Them
The only export-control figure in Applied’s 2026 results is a charge of $253 million in the first quarter, worth $0.32 a share. The release describes it as a “Charge of $253 million for settlement with the U.S. Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security to resolve a previously disclosed export controls compliance matter”.
There was no such charge in the fourth quarter. The release’s risk language cites “changes in trade and export regulations, license requirements, and their interpretation, and our ability to obtain licenses or authorizations on a timely basis, if at all”. It gives no figure for revenue lost to export rules.
The Structural Read
As we read eight quarters of releases, China’s 25% share matches the low of the second quarter of fiscal 2025, after 37% for fiscal 2024 as a whole.
As we read the release, the only export-control figure Applied gives for 2026 is the $253 million settlement charge in the first quarter; it gives no estimate of revenue affected by export rules.
Applied Materials release, 12 November 2026, risk factors
“changes in trade and export regulations, license requirements, and their interpretation, and our ability to obtain licenses or authorizations on a timely basis, if at all”
Three Implications
FOR THE REGIONAL MIX Taiwan was 28% of revenue and China 25% in the fourth quarter, per the release.
FOR EXPORT RULES Applied cites trade and export regulations and licences among its risk factors, without a revenue figure.
FOR OUR COVERAGE We will report China commentary from the call script and the annual report when Applied publishes them.
The framework says: “It’s a fundamental constraint on the speed of AI transformation, and it’s creating geopolitical leverage that operates independently of who has the best models.”
Applied’s release lists trade and export regulations and licence requirements among its risks, and China fell to 25% of its revenue. The framework predates the results and does not discuss Applied.
What Is Not Established
Applied does not name its China customers, give a China outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, or split China revenue by product in the release or presentation. The earnings call script was not yet posted when we read the documents. The 35% rise in China revenue has no stated cause in the documents.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
China fell to 25% of Applied Materials’ revenue in its record quarter, matching the low of the last eight. China sales rose 35%, but the rest of the world rose 61%, and Taiwan was the larger region. The full results guide to $11.1 billion next quarter.
A note on sourcing. Regional revenue and shares come from Applied Materials’ 8-K earnings releases on EDGAR, the latest dated 12 November 2026; the export-control charge from its fiscal 2026 releases. Growth rates and revenue outside China are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
