Apple’s shares rose 3.49% in October while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.30%, by our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance closing prices for 30 September and 30 October, the month’s last trading day. That is a gap of 8.79 percentage points, going into Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter results after the US close on 2 November.
The correlation between Apple’s daily returns and the Nasdaq Composite’s was -0.14 in October, by our count. Of 82 calendar months since January 2020, only two had a negative reading, July 2026 at -0.19 and October 2026, both this year. In October 2020 the same measure was 0.88.
The key insight:Apple rose 3.49% in October while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.30%, and the correlation of their daily returns was -0.14, by our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance closing prices; only two of 82 months since January 2020 had a negative reading, July and October 2026.
Apple closed at $333.02 on 30 September and $344.63 on 30 October. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,861.06 and 25,437.00 on the same days, according to Yahoo Finance’s daily closes.
We measured the link month by month: the Pearson correlation of the two daily percentage returns inside each calendar month. October readings by year were 0.88 in 2020, 0.79 in 2021, 0.90 in 2022, 0.80 in 2023, 0.75 in 2024 and 0.72 in 2025, by our arithmetic. In 2026 the reading fell from 0.43 in May and 0.31 in June to -0.19 in July, then 0.06 in August, 0.23 in September and -0.14 in October.
The pattern was flagged on X by the account @puckrin, which wrote that Apple’s correlation to the Nasdaq “has gone NEGATIVE” and called it “the anti-AI trade.” The post gave October moves of 4.4% for Apple and 5% for the Nasdaq without stating its dates; our own pull of closing prices gives 3.49% and 5.30%.
Business Pill · Concentration Explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on concentration, when a few big pieces make the total. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Apple or October’s moves.
What Was Posted on X
This has never happened before.
Apple’s correlation to the Nasdaq has gone NEGATIVE.
In October it gained 4.4% while the Nasdaq lost 5%.
What’s even crazier is 6 years ago, it was close to 100%.
The account @puckrin posted on 2 November that Apple’s correlation to the Nasdaq had turned negative, giving October moves of 4.4% for Apple and a 5% fall for the Nasdaq, and called it the anti-AI trade. Our own pull of closing prices gives 3.49% and 5.30%; the post does not state its dates or method.
Correlation of Apple’s and the Nasdaq Composite’s daily returns in each calendar month, January 2020 to October 2026, our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance closing prices. Only July 2026 (-0.19) and October 2026 (-0.14) were negative; October 2020 was 0.88.Animated: the monthly correlation of Apple’s and the Nasdaq Composite’s daily returns, February 2025 to October 2026, our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance closes. July 2026 was -0.19 and October -0.14.
In July we described Apple as “the anti-capex play” at the top of the AI value cascade. As we read the October data, the price action matches that description for one month: Apple moved up while the index fell. What is new is the measured break in co-movement, two negative months in 82, both in 2026.
The Structural Read
As we read the monthly series, the link between Apple and the index weakened through 2026 before it turned negative: the reading was 0.43 in May and 0.31 in June, against October readings between 0.72 and 0.90 in each year from 2020 to 2025, by our arithmetic.
As we read it, the data describes co-movement, not motive. It shows the stock and the index moving apart in two of the last four months; it does not show who was buying Apple or why.
@puckrin on X, 2 November 2026
“The anti-AI trade is hiding in plain sight.”
Three Implications
FOR INDEX INVESTORS The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.30% in October while Apple, one of its largest members, rose 3.49%, by our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance closes.
FOR APPLE SHAREHOLDERSApple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the US close on 2 November; October’s closing price was $344.63, up from $333.02 at the end of September, according to Yahoo Finance.
FOR ANYONE USING CORRELATION Each monthly reading uses about 21 trading days, and our method is the Pearson correlation of daily percentage returns within the month; a different index or window would give different numbers.
The framework opens its account of the April results this way: “The Big Four lifted their 2026 capex guides in unison.” It adds that Apple, reporting the day after, decreased capex year over year.
As we read it, that split in spending is the backdrop to October’s split in share prices. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss the October moves.
A monthly correlation built from about 21 trading days is a noisy measure, and one month does not show a lasting change. The data shows Apple and the index moving apart; it does not show why, and it does not show that investors are buying Apple as a hedge against AI spending.
The figures use the Nasdaq Composite; a different index or a different window would give different numbers. Apple’s results after Monday’s close are not reflected here.
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Apple rose 3.49% in October while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.30%, and the correlation of their daily returns was -0.14, by our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance closes. Only two of 82 months since January 2020 were negative, July and October 2026.
A note on sourcing. This piece relies on daily closing prices for Apple and the Nasdaq Composite from Yahoo Finance, 2 January 2020 to 30 October 2026. The October changes, the monthly correlations and the count of negative months are our arithmetic; the method is described in the piece. The pattern was flagged on X by @puckrin.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
