Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss are taking Gemini public at perhaps the worst possible moment. The crypto exchange that once boasted a $7.1 billion valuation just filed its S-1, revealing a 76% revenue collapse from $462 million in 2021 to just $108 million in 2024. With $164 million in losses, 784 employees, and the SEC settlement fresh in investors’ minds, this isn’t a growthstory—it’s a survival story. Yet buried in the filing is one stunning number: $85.9 billion in customer assets under custody across 5.4 million accounts. The question isn’t whether Gemini can go public, but whether public markets will value a wounded crypto exchange that’s still standing when so many others have fallen. (Source: Gemini S-1 Filing, January 2025)
Filed: January 2025 (confidentially in late 2024) Roadshow: Expected March 2025 Pricing: Targeting April/May 2025 Exchange: Likely Nasdaq (ticker: GEMI expected)
Use of Proceeds:
International expansion (40%)
Technology investment (30%)
Marketing/Customer acquisition (20%)
General corporate purposes (10%)
Underwriter Syndicate
Lead Underwriters: (Per filing)
Goldman Sachs
J.P. Morgan
BofA Securities
Notable Absence: Morgan Stanley (Coinbase relationship)
The Math: At 18x forward revenue (generous for negative growth), implies $1.9B valuation. Public markets won’t pay crypto premiums for declining businesses.
2. Acquisition Within 18 Months
The Logic: At $1.5-2B valuation, Gemini becomes attractive acquisition for TradFi wanting instant crypto capability. Winklevii finally get their exit.
3. International Expansion Fails
The Reality: Without Gemini Earn’s yield product, competing internationally against Binance and local players proves impossible. US-only destiny.
The Bottom Line
Gemini’s IPO filing is a sobering reminder that even the best-positioned crypto companies aren’t immune to market cycles. The 76% revenue collapse from peak, $164 million in losses, and dependence on a concentrated customer base paint a challenging picture. Yet the $85.9 billion in custody and 5.4 million accounts prove there’s still a real business here.
The Strategic Reality: This IPO isn’t about growth—it’s about survival and liquidity. The Winklevoss twins are betting that public market discipline, access to capital, and potential M&A opportunities outweigh the scrutiny and quarterly earnings pressure. At a likely $1.5-2.5 billion valuation, Gemini would be priced for distress, not growth.
For Business Leaders: Gemini’s journey from $7.1 billion valuation to potential $2 billion IPO is a masterclass in timing’s importance. Going public during crypto winter with declining revenues and regulatory wounds fresh isn’t ideal, but sometimes you don’t get to choose your moment. The question is whether public markets will see a turnaround story or a cautionary tale. Given crypto’s volatility, the answer might change by the day.
Three Key Takeaways:
Revenue Quality Matters: $462M to $108M shows crypto exchange revenues are ephemeral
Compliance Isn’t Enough: Being the “regulatory-friendly” option didn’t prevent 76% decline
Timing Is Everything: IPO at crypto highs, not business lows
Strategic Analysis Framework Applied
The Business Engineer | FourWeekMBA
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and strategic understanding purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All data points are sourced from public filings and reports and may be subject to change. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
