Nvidia’s 10-Q Lists $530B in Commitments and Guarantees

NVIDIA’s quarterly report for the period ended 26 July 2026, filed on 26 August 2026, lists three tables of commitments and guarantees in its Note 10: $366 billion of commitments, $56 billion of additional commitments and $108.5 billion of maximum gross exposure under guarantees. By our arithmetic, those three tables add up to $530.5 billion.

SemiAnalysis drew attention to the figure in a thread on X on 10 October 2026, saying NVIDIA “disclosed $530B of gross off-balance sheet guarantees across six different line items”, up from $184 billion of obligations disclosed in the prior quarter. The filing itself does not use the term off-balance sheet and does not state a single total.

What the Filing Lists

The first table in Note 10 is headed future commitments by fiscal year as of 26 July 2026. It lists supply and capacity at $279 billion, cloud service agreements at $29 billion, data center leases not commenced at $25 billion, equity investments at $25 billion and capital expenditures at $8 billion, for a stated total of $366 billion.

NVIDIA says the supply commitments are for its data center infrastructure systems, primarily memory and manufacturing facilities. The note states that NVIDIA increased supply commitments from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion as of 26 July 2026.

The filing says some of these supplier agreements may be cancelable, rescheduled or adjustable before firm orders are placed, and that changes to them may result in additional costs.

The Additional Commitments

A second table, headed Additional Commitments, lists AI cloud agreements at $36 billion and data center leases not commenced for third party at $20 billion, a stated total of $56 billion.

Under the AI cloud agreements, the filing says, AI clouds procure NVIDIA’s data center infrastructure products and NVIDIA commits to cloud service agreements, which the AI clouds can unilaterally stop providing to NVIDIA and sell to third-party customers at more advantageous rates. The commitments decrease as capacity is used by third-party customers or by NVIDIA.

The third-party leases have terms of approximately fifteen years and are expected to commence between fiscal year 2028 and fiscal year 2029. NVIDIA says it expects to reassign these data center leases to third parties.

The Guarantees

The guarantees table gives a maximum gross exposure of $3.5 billion for land, power and shell guarantees for AI cloud partners’ data center lease obligations, and $105.0 billion for the SB Energy Corp. guarantees, a total of $108.5 billion.

The filing says NVIDIA entered into the SB Energy guarantees in August 2026, capped at a total of $105 billion, on behalf of a customer, an affiliate of OpenAI Group PBC. They relate to leases of approximately 4.25 gigawatts of IT load at SB Energy’s PORTS Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio.

According to the note, each guarantee generally becomes effective when the applicable lease commences, the amounts increase as each of the nine phases of construction is completed, the first expected in fiscal year 2029, and payment obligations are triggered upon certain tenant defaults. The guarantees terminate upon certain events, including OpenAI achieving a satisfactory credit rating. The note says that in exchange the site will exclusively host NVIDIA AI infrastructure, subject to limited exceptions.

What Changed From the Prior Quarter

The prior quarterly report, for the period ended 26 April 2026, disclosed supply and capacity commitments of $119 billion, multi-year cloud service agreement commitments of $30 billion and other vendor commitments of $6 billion in its Note 10.

Elsewhere in that report, NVIDIA disclosed investment commitments of $27 billion, facility lease guarantees with a maximum gross exposure of $3.5 billion, and leases it expected to commence with future obligations of $32.4 billion. That report contains no SB Energy guarantees and no AI cloud agreements table.

SemiAnalysis puts the prior quarter at $184 billion of obligations. The April filing does not present one total, so the comparison depends on which of these items are counted; the supply commitments, $119 billion to $279 billion, are the change NVIDIA itself states.

What NVIDIA Says About the Risk

In its risk factors, NVIDIA says: “These arrangements require substantial payments over many years. If future demand, our needs or plans differ from our expectations, we may be unable to reduce these commitments.”

On the SB Energy guarantees, the filing says that if OpenAI does not perform its obligations or becomes subject to an insolvency event and a guarantee is triggered, NVIDIA may assume the applicable lease, require the landlord to seek a replacement tenant, initiate a sale process or pursue other remedies. It adds that OpenAI has agreed to reimburse and indemnify NVIDIA for certain losses, but that NVIDIA may not recover amounts promptly or in full.

What SemiAnalysis Argues

In the rest of its thread, SemiAnalysis frames the question as NVIDIA’s capacity to meet these commitments in an industry slowdown or downturn. It says its newsletter analysis is not a forecast, cites $450 billion of EBITDA expected in the fiscal year ending January 2028, and says NVIDIA should be able to expand these obligations to beyond $1 trillion in the coming years.

Those are SemiAnalysis’s figures and views; the $450 billion EBITDA expectation does not appear in the 10-Q we read.

The Structural Read

The filing groups the items in three tables with different natures. The first lists commitments NVIDIA says it has made to suppliers, cloud providers, landlords and investees. The second lists commitments it says it took on for AI clouds and third parties. The third gives the maximum gross exposure under guarantees.

As we read it, the filing describes several of these items as conditional. NVIDIA says some supplier agreements may be cancelable or adjustable before firm orders, that AI cloud commitments decrease as capacity is used, and that the SB Energy amounts increase by phase and decrease over each lease term.

SemiAnalysis frames the same disclosure as a question of NVIDIA’s capacity in a downturn. The 10-Q’s own risk factor says NVIDIA may be unable to reduce these commitments if future demand differs from its expectations.

Three Implications

MEMORY AND MANUFACTURING SUPPLIERS NVIDIA says the $279 billion of supply and capacity commitments are primarily for memory and manufacturing facilities for its data center infrastructure systems.

OPENAI AND SB ENERGY The filing says the guarantees, capped at $105 billion, cover leases of approximately 4.25 gigawatts at the PORTS Technology Campus and terminate upon certain events, including OpenAI achieving a satisfactory credit rating.

AI CLOUDS The filing lists $36 billion of AI cloud agreements, commitments it says decrease as capacity is used by third-party customers or by NVIDIA.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The AI Capex Map & The State of AI Hyperscalers.

The analysis puts it this way: “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle. It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing — and the financial architecture is starting to invert.”

As we read it, NVIDIA’s Note 10 shows that architecture from the supplier’s side: alongside $279 billion of supply commitments, the filing lists credit support of up to $105 billion for a customer’s data center leases and $20 billion of leases NVIDIA says it expects to reassign to third parties.

What Is Not Established

The 10-Q gives maximum gross exposure for the guarantees, not expected losses, and says the SB Energy amounts increase as phases are completed and decrease over each lease term. The filing does not say how much of the $530.5 billion, by our sum, would ever be paid in a downturn.

We did not read the SemiAnalysis newsletter article behind the thread, and we did not reconcile its $184 billion prior-quarter figure line by line.

The Bottom Line

NVIDIA’s 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026 lists $366 billion of commitments, $56 billion of additional commitments and $108.5 billion of maximum gross exposure under guarantees, $530.5 billion by our sum, including up to $105 billion of credit support for OpenAI’s leases at SB Energy’s Ohio campus. NVIDIA says it may be unable to reduce these commitments if demand differs from its expectations.