Five Predictions for the Agentic Economy

In our initial analysis of Anthropic’s landmark study, we closed with five predictions. They weren’t speculative — they were structural extrapolations from the data, filtered through the frameworks we’ve been building for years.

This piece does the hard work of testing each prediction against the latest evidence: industry data, regulatory signals, real-world incidents, and enterprise adoption patterns. Each prediction gets a thesis, an evidence trail, leading indicators, and strategic implications.

The core thesis remains unchanged: adoption is a function of time, not breakthroughs. The infrastructure — as explored in the economics of AI compute infrastructure — you build during the trust-gated phase determines your position when the gates open.