Anthropic’s $518B Leak: Google $111.1B, Amazon $110B, 80% Locked

A wire report of Reuters’ account of Anthropic’s confidential IPO prospectus says the company expects to spend at least $518 billion over a decade on AI computing from six partners, with about 80% non-cancellable or payable regardless of usage. It puts $111.1 billion on Google, $110 billion on Amazon and $31.4 billion on Microsoft.

What the Reporting Says

ANI, relaying Reuters, says Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion over the next decade to secure AI computing infrastructure from six partners, and that about 80% of the commitments are non-cancellable or payable regardless of usage. It says Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC in June and that the filing has not been made public.

The report says Anthropic plans to spend at least $111.1 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon and $31.4 billion with Microsoft over the next seven to 10 years, “regardless of usage”. It says payments to Google run from April 2026 to July 2033 and to Amazon from May 2026 to April 2036.

It quotes the filing on the shortfall clause: “If our actual spend falls short, we must pay Google the difference,” adding that similar terms apply to the Amazon agreement. It says Anthropic is telling investors the commitments are necessary because future demand is likely to exceed available supply and will be “limited principally by the availability of compute.”

Where the Broadcom Leases Sit

ANI says Anthropic is “separately carrying about USD 161.2 billion of Broadcom-related equipment lease obligations that are largely non-cancelable,” according to Reuters. Yahoo Finance, in an analysis of the same reporting, lists $161.2 billion to Broadcom inside its breakdown of the $518 billion.

The two accounts differ on whether the leases are inside the total or carried alongside it. This publication cannot say which is right, because it has not seen the prospectus.

This publication’s own arithmetic: the three named cloud figures sum to $252.5 billion, about 49% of $518 billion. Adding $161.2 billion gives $413.7 billion, about 80%. The reports do not say how the non-cancellable share is made up, so this publication draws no conclusion from that match.

The Cancellable and Equity Pieces

ANI says the filing discloses agreements with Elon Musk’s xAI that could lead to spending of up to $84.5 billion on Nvidia-based computing capacity through 2029, and that most of those commitments can be cancelled with 90 days’ notice.

It says AMD has committed to purchase up to $5 billion of Anthropic shares and to supply AI computing capacity expected to exceed $20 billion. The accounts do not say whether the xAI or AMD figures sit inside the $518 billion.

The Dependence Risk

ANI says Anthropic is increasingly building its own AI infrastructure, shifting from a cloud-only model toward dedicated data centers and directly leased chips. It says the company flagged its dependence on Amazon, Google and Microsoft, which provide computing infrastructure and distribution while also developing rival AI models.

The report quotes the filing: “If the compute we have access to from third parties is curtailed, repriced, or terminated … our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected”.

The Structural Read

The report separates what Anthropic must pay from what it could walk away from. It describes the Google and Amazon agreements as payable “regardless of usage” and quotes the filing as saying that if actual spend falls short, Anthropic must pay Google the difference, adding that similar terms apply to the Amazon agreement. Against that, it says most of the xAI-linked commitments can be cancelled with 90 days’ notice.

The report also gives the reason the filing offers for taking on the fixed commitments. It says Anthropic is telling investors the commitments are necessary because future demand is likely to exceed available supply and will be “limited principally by the availability of compute.”

The accounts differ on one point of structure. ANI says Anthropic is separately carrying about $161.2 billion of Broadcom-related equipment lease obligations, while Yahoo Finance lists the same figure inside its breakdown of the $518 billion. This publication cannot say which is right, because it has not seen the prospectus.

Three Implications

NOT ALL COMMITMENTS ARE ALIKE The report describes about 80% of the commitments as non-cancellable or payable regardless of usage, and most of the xAI-linked amount as cancellable on 90 days’ notice. This publication does not say how the total divides between the two.

THE FILING TIES THE COMMITMENTS TO SUPPLY As the report relays it, Anthropic is telling investors the commitments are necessary because future demand is likely to exceed available supply. This publication cannot judge that claim.

THE NUMBERS REST ON ONE ACCOUNT Every figure comes from Reuters’ account as ANI and Yahoo Finance relay it. The prospectus is not public, and the two relays differ on whether the Broadcom leases sit inside the total.

What Is Not Established

The prospectus is not public. This publication searched SEC EDGAR full text on 4 October and found no Anthropic filing, so every figure here rests on Reuters’ account as ANI and Yahoo Finance relay it. None of the accounts names the other three partners among the six, and the xAI and AMD arrangements are not placed inside or outside the total.

This publication did not seek a response from Anthropic, Reuters or any named company. The arithmetic above is its own.

The Bottom Line

As Reuters’ account of the prospectus is relayed, Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion over a decade on compute from six partners, about 80% of it non-cancellable or payable regardless of usage. Google, Amazon and Microsoft account for $252.5 billion of the named figures, and sources differ on whether $161.2 billion of Broadcom leases is inside the total.