The Geopolitical Fencing of Frontier AI

I’ve been explaining since 2022, why AI is a sypercycle that looks way more like the semiconductor industry.

AI is not following the playbook of the consumer internet. It is following the playbook of the early semiconductor industry — capital-heavy, physical, strategically vital, and entangled with state power from the start.

On June 12, 2026, one US directive switched off Anthropic’s two most capable models for every foreign national on Earth — including the company’s own foreign staff. Anthropic complied within hours. Every customer on the planet lost access to the frontier tier.

Two things follow. First, the geopolitical layer at the top of the AI stack is not just a place where alliances get built. It is also a kill switch. Second, open-source frontier models — the supposed escape hatch — are not actually an escape, and the semiconductor analogy tells you exactly why.

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I’ve been explaining since 2022, why AI is a sypercycle that looks way more like the semiconductor industry.

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