Lumentum CEO Says It’s Almost Sold Out for 2029 on AI Optics

Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston told Bloomberg Television on 9 October 2026 that the company is under-shipping demand on some of its products by 30% into 2028 and is “almost sold out for 2029.” For other products, he said, Lumentum is under-shipping demand by about 70% next year.

Hurlston said Lumentum is trying to catch up and add capacity as fast as it can, but is very far behind what customers want.

Where the Bottleneck Is

Hurlston said the tightest constraint is the laser chips Lumentum makes, which connect equipment in AI data centres using light, and that those chips are far behind overall demand.

He said Lumentum recently added a fab in Greensboro, North Carolina, and has decided to add capacity in a second fabrication facility in Japan. New capacity takes about three years, he said: a year to equip a fab, a year to qualify the device, and another year for customers to qualify it in their products, putting the new Japan capacity at around 2029 to 2030.

Commitments and Deals

Hurlston said hyperscalers are making commitments that get Lumentum out five years and have accepted some of the risk and expense through what he called risk allocation moves, which he said carry the company at least into 2030 or 2031.

He described Lumentum’s revenue growth as doubling and said most people project it to double again in the coming year, organically so far. He added that the company would like to complete an acquisition within the next year to add products, as optical components and traditional semiconductors converge.

The China Question

Asked about a possible US ban on Chinese optical transceiver imports, Hurlston said it could be very good for Lumentum, which makes transceivers, but that he is concerned about any disruption to the supply chain.

He said Chinese transceiver makers have essentially all of the market at Chinese hyperscalers and about 70% of transceivers supplied in the United States, and that rules should balance national security concerns with the supply chain. He said Lumentum opened its North Carolina fab in partnership with Nvidia to enable more US manufacturing.

The Structural Read

Customers are underwriting the build. Hurlston said hyperscalers have made commitments five years out and accepted some of the risk and expense.

Capacity is being added on two continents. He named the Greensboro, North Carolina fab and a second fabrication facility in Japan.

Policy cuts both ways. A US ban on Chinese transceivers could help Lumentum, he said, but he warned against disrupting a supply chain in which Chinese makers supply about 70% of US transceivers.

Three Implications

A THREE-YEAR CYCLE Hurlston said new capacity takes about three years from equipping a fab to customer qualification.

FIVE-YEAR COMMITMENTS He said hyperscaler commitments carry Lumentum at least into 2030 or 2031.

AN ACQUISITION AHEAD He said Lumentum would like to complete an acquisition within the next year.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework AI’s Geopolitical Chokepoint.

The framework’s starting point: “The digital economy rests on a physical foundation that most people in that economy never see.”

As we read it, Lumentum’s laser chips and transceivers are part of that foundation, with raw materials and much of transceiver supply tied to China, which is why Hurlston frames US rules as a balance between security and supply.

What Is Not Established

We read Lumentum’s segment of the Bloomberg Television interview from the video’s automatic captions, which can mis-transcribe words; we did not read a Lumentum filing or release on these figures. The revenue doubling projection is what Hurlston said others project, not company guidance we read. We did not contact Lumentum.

The Bottom Line

Lumentum’s CEO says demand for its AI optical parts runs well ahead of supply, saying the company is almost sold out for 2029, under-shipping some products by 30% into 2028 and others by about 70% next year, and that hyperscaler commitments now reach five years out.